Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 1Q24 Results, Apple’s 1Q24: By the Numbers, Parsing Apple’s 2Q24 Guidance

Apple’s 1Q24 earnings call was jam-packed with information. Unlike the average earnings call from Big Tech, Apple’s calls contain useful commentary and tidbits. More time will be needed to go through the disclosures, including the installed base information.

For today, we will look at the big picture from earnings, how the reported figures compared to my estimates, and Apple’s 2Q24 guidance.

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My 1Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for 2Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model

Apple reports FY1Q24 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for estimates related to Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will say about guidance (FY2Q24). We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

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Preparing for Apple’s 1Q24 Earnings Release


Apple reports FY1Q24 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. Today's update will begin our preparation for Apple's earnings as we go over Neil’s broader thoughts heading into Apple’s earnings.

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Apple Unveils Plan for Digital Markets Act, The Spotify Boost Act, Apple Changes Game Streaming Policy

This is shaping up to be a busy week. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. We will begin preparing for earnings tomorrow (Tuesday). For today's update, we will focus on Apple's plan for the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The discussion includes why Neil thinks the DMA should be renamed the Spotify Boost Act. We conclude with a noteworthy change in how Apple will treat game streaming services in the App Store.

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Netflix 4Q23 Earnings, Netflix Buys Rights for WWE Raw, Spatial F1 Racing on Apple Vision Pro

Some weeks, the news flow comes together in such a way as to result in a fun conversation at the end of the week covering several related topics. We will do that in today’s update. The update will begin with Netflix earnings, turn to Netflix getting into live sports/entertainment, and then conclude with a closer look at an intriguing concept for live sports consumption on Vision Pro.

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Indie Apps on Vision Pro, A visionOS Developer Strike?, The Apple Developer Community

We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on indie app development for Apple Vision Pro. The discussion then turns to why Neil disagree’s with Stratechery’s Ben Thompson’s theory regarding developers being on a Vision Pro / visionOS “strike.” The update concludes with a few broader observations about the Apple developer community, new computing platforms, and not getting caught in developer silos.

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Netflix and Spotify Snub Vision Pro, YouTube Dragging Feet With Vision Pro, Apple TV+ Was the Right Bet for Apple

When the Vision Pro launches on February 2nd, there will be approximately 250 apps with native support for visionOS - apps optimized for Vision Pro when it comes to design elements and other features made possible by visionOS). Considering how we are talking about a new platform with all-new design thinking, that number comes across as decent. The list includes some, but not all, of Apple’s apps, along with a variety of third-party apps.

A million iPhone and iPad apps will also be available unless the developer opts out. In recent days, attention has flowed to three opt outs – Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube. We will focus on those companies today. There will be more to say about visionOS apps tomorrow.

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More on My Apple Vision Pro Demo, Apple’s Vision Pro Sales Pitch

Last Thursday, we went over Neil’s initial thoughts following his second Vision Pro demo. For today, we will kick things off with more about what actually occurred during Neil’s demo. This provides a look at how Apple is positioning Vision Pro at launch. The discussion will then go deeper into the Apple Vision Pro sales pitch.

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Thoughts After Using Apple Vision Pro for a Second Time

Earlier today, I experienced a 40-minute demo of Apple Vision Pro. The demo was about 10 minutes longer than the one that occurred at WWDC 2023. Across the two demos, I’ve spent about 70 minutes using Apple Vision Pro.

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U.S. Supreme Court Declines to Hear Epic/Apple Appeals, The New App Store Battle, Consumers Should Be More Vocal

As expected, the Vision Pro news cycle remains in overdrive ahead of pre-orders going live in a few days. We will get to the latest developments shortly. For today’s discussion, we will travel to App Store land and news from the U.S. Supreme Court. The update also goes over Neil’s thoughts on where the new App Store battle in the U.S. will be fought.

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Apple Watch Ban Update, YouTube’s Strengthening Grip on Kids, NFL / Peacock Controversy

We kick things off with the latest developments involving the U.S. sales / import ban on Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2. The update then turns to media land. We go over YouTube’s strengthening grip on children’s viewing habits. Our attention then turns to takeaways from the NFL / NBC / Peacock controversy this past weekend involving the Saturday Wild Card playoff game.

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Google Reorganizes Devices Group, Humane Announces Reorganization

We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Google reorganizing its devices group. The update then turns to Humane announcing a reorganization ahead of its upcoming Ai pin launch.

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Analyzing Historical Apple HW Launches (Unit Sales), Vision Pro Launch Sales Estimate

Given Vision Pro's upcoming launch, the next few weeks of updates will inevitably contain a fair amount of Vision Pro discussion. For today, we take a closer look at Apple HW launches. We will also go over my initial launch sales estimates for Vision Pro.

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Apple Releases First Vision Pro Ad, Revisiting the First iPhone Ad, iPhone vs. Vision Pro

We will continue our Vision Pro discussion as a few interesting developments came to light at the end of yesterday. Neil goes over his thoughts on Apple’s first Vision Pro ad. The discussion then turns to comparing the ad to Apple’s first iPhone ad in 2007. This leads to a broader look at iPhone vs. Vision Pro comparisons.

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Apple Vision Pro Launch Date Announced, New Vision Pro Details, What About Vision Pro Demos?

There is Vision Pro news to go over. We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s Vision Pro launch date. The discussion then goes over several new details disclosed about the device. We conclude with a look at Vision Pro demos at Apple Stores.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

New Churn Estimates for Paid Video Streaming, Apple Announces Fitness+ Updates, ASML Cancels DUV Shipments Into China


We kick things off with a closer look at new churn estimates for the major video streamers in the U.S. The paid video industry is getting more complicated. The discussion then turns to Neil’s thoughts on new features and content announced for Fitness+. We conclude with ASML needing to cancel advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines shipments into China.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.


We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

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U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban, Apple’s Response, Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch

The most recent Above Avalon Report, which went out to everyone via email on December 22nd and via podcast to members with the podcast add-on, was about Apple Watch Ultra / Ultra 2. In tomorrow's update, we will talk about a few things that didn't make it into the report. For today, we will look at the latest regarding the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 U.S. ban. The discussion includes a closer look at Apple’s response and why Neil isn’t concerned about Apple Watch.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

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The Ultra Strategy: An Examination of Apple’s Adventurous Watch (Above Avalon Report)

An examination of the Apple Watch Ultra.

Written by Neil Cybart - December 21st, 2023

In 2022, Apple unveiled an all-new Apple Watch model designed for the adventurous. While previous Apple Watches were able to be used in extreme conditions, this model would be marketed as taking things to another level. A year after its unveiling, Apple Watch Ultra remains the most intriguing Apple Watch model as momentum flows to more capable devices worn on the wrist.


Table of Contents

  • Apple Watch History

  • Watch Line Expansion

  • The Ultra Unveiling

  • Bad (Initial) Reviews

  • The Strategy

  • Differentiation Details

  • Sales Implications

  • Future

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Apple Year in Review 2023 (Financial Strategy)

As we close out 2023, there is value in taking time to recap the past 12 months. For Apple, one way of recapping the past 12 months is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. In yesterday’s update, we recapped Apple's product strategy. Today, we will analyze Apple’s financial trends in FY2023.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.