ipad,

iPad Invading Enterprise. Re: Urban Outfitters

Urban Outfitters, a clothing retailer with $2.5 billion in annual sales, held an analyst/investor day on September 27 and to say that iPad and Apple played a minor role would be an understatement. Management outlined how iPad is increasing customer satisfaction, in addition to improving Urban Outfitters’ efficiency and financial performance. I found the presentation quite revealing and helpful in trying to understand, straight from the source, one example of how iPad is invading enterprise.

All quotes are attributed to Calvin Hollinger (Chief Information Officer), unless noted otherwise.

Two years ago, we deployed iPad point-of-sale into all the stores. An iPad point-of-sale is pretty much — it looks like your iPhone. It has a little case around it. You can scan bar codes. You can swipe the credit card, and it does everything that a normal point-of-sale system does, except you can’t take cash obviously. We don’t have a debit device. You can’t take debit transactions, and you can’t take checks. But it does everything else that a point-of-sale device can do.

When we deployed it, again, two years ago, it was very well received by our customers. There’s a very personal interaction between a sales associate and the customer. It was well received by sales associates. They had fun having a customer sign their signature with their thumb. And it was especially well received by Frank Conforti, our CFO, because this device, fully loaded, fully installed, is about $500 and register is about $5,000. So it also made financial sense. 

Not only are iPads improving customer satisfaction (which is an important piece of brick and mortar retailing), but Urban Outfitters is saving money by moving to mobile point of sale. What is a drawback? An iPad can’t physically hold cash. As more customers move away from cash and towards other forms of payments, this “drawback” will become less relevant and judging from how cash is handled in Apple stores (hidden cash drawers), a cash-paying customer can still have a carefree transaction with mobile point of sale. 

And in fact, we told the stores, “Give us back your fixed register that we can refurbish and use somewhere else. Give us back one register, we’ll give you five of these devices.” I don’t have the exact numbers. John [ph], you can correct me. Between the brands, I think we’ll be sending about 1,100 of these devices for peak of this year.

Compared to the millions of iPads Apple sells each quarter, 1,100 iPads are drop in the bucket. However, more importantly, Urban Outfitters is planning on replacing every cash register with five iPads, expanding iPad’s usage and relevancy within each store. 

Richard Hayne - Co-Founder, Chairman of the Board of Directors, CEO, and President:

Right now our store associates can better service our customers by selling merchandise from the web inventory using an iPad in stores. This is a very impactful thing that we have rolled out this year, and it’s been incredible for us. And vice versa, the web can now sell merchandise that’s from our stores, so customers can be shipped items from their local store, which is resulting in fewer broken sales in the web, better use of slow turn merchandise in the stores and faster delivery times for the customer. So all in all, a happier customer.

Helping customers while improving business fundamentals, all the while saving cash - hard to say no to that proposition. The ability to seamlessly sell web inventory in a physical store is a big deal as the retailer is able to save in inventory costs, while not losing a potential sale. Anecdotally, I have heard the ability to order different clothing sizes, colors, and styles from the web (after first trying on in-store) is a big deal. 

The iPad is a very, very powerful device. So in addition to being a register, we can download a lot of content down to the stores, maybe training videos, maybe, Hey, this product sells or this product, the whole market buys it, all the reports, sales reports, a lot of information because it’s a very, very powerful device, and it’s very, very easy to use. A big screen, very, very intuitive. 

That’s a lot of verys.  Not only will Urban Outfitters use the iPad as a point of sale, but it will truly transform the way business is done at the brick and mortar retailer.

Now although this is a mobile device, iPad is a mobile device, we have to set up with the pilots to have it on a swivel arm, so it’s very clean. If it’s not in use, you can take the swivel arm and put the iPad away and you can use this as a packing space or maybe to display more items to sell, et cetera. And then from a customer’s point of view, here’s the customer, return the iPad to the customer, she’s confirming her shipping address. We could also use it to — well, and used to be, for example, a gift registry. A very, very powerful device.

Gift registry. Yet another use for iPad. 

2 or 3 weeks ago, we placed our very last register order. We’re out the register business. Going forward, we had placed the orders. We’ve got some new stores coming up. But once we successfully make sure this iPad works in all the stores, all stores will be designed and equipped with iPod Touches and iPads. And Frank is, again, happy, because the iPad is $1,000 fully installed versus $5,000. But all our stores going forward will have iPads and iTouches.

Regardless of a fully installed iPad’s cost - ranging from $500 to $1000, the price pales in comparison to a cash register’s $5,000 price tag. 

Similar stories and case studies of iPad being used in enterprise are occurring in a range of industries and companies as iPad’s disruptive capabilities are becoming more valuable. iPad’s invasion into enterprise is only getting started.  A full transcript of management’s presentation can be found here

AAPL 3Q12 Estimate

Revenue: $41.3 billion (AAPL guidance: $34.0 billion/Consensus: $37.4 billion) 

  • I expect iPad and iPhone to represent approximately 75% of Apple’s quarterly revenue.  

GM: 45.5% (AAPL guidance: 41.5%/Consensus: 43.3%)

  • Apple’s margin jumped to 47.4% last quarter, from 40.5% in 2011. Weaker iPhone sales should serve as a headwind for sequential quarterly GM expansion in 3Q12, although attractive component pricing will continue to provide support for yoy improvement (Apple reported 41.7% margin in 3Q11). 

EPS: $12.30 (AAPL guidance: $8.68/Consensus: $10.34) 

  • I expect Apple to report 58% yoy EPS growth. 

Product Unit Sales and Commentary

Macs: 4.7 million (19% yoy growth)

  • I expect Mac shipments to show continued strong yoy growth following updates to the laptop lineup at WWDC. Pent-up demand and early back-to-school purchases should help offset MacBook Pro with Retina display shortages.

iPad: 21.3 million (130% yoy growth)

  • Apple will report record iPad sales for 3Q12. My iPad estimate assumes approximately 1.8 million iPads sold per week (including iPad 2 sales), which compares to the approximate 1.2 million weekly run rate during the last holiday quarter. Management commentary regarding continued iPad supply/demand imbalance bodes well for record iPad sales. Anecdotally, iPad 2 sales in education and business appear robust following the price cut, while lower component and manufacturing pricing should help to limit margin compression.

iPod: 6.6 million (13% yoy decline)

iPhone: 29.5 million (45% yoy growth)

  • My estimate reflects an average 2.5 million weekly iPhone sales run rate. At the end of 2Q12, Apple reported 8.6 million iPhones in the channel inventory, a sequential increase of 2.6 million units. Backing out the inventory build, Apple reported an average 2.7 million weekly sales run rate last quarter. With supply/demand in balance and rumors of the new iPhone building, I expect the weekly sales run rate to decline into the fall.

When Apple releases earnings on July 24, iPad and iPhone sales, along with reported margin, will represent investor’s primary focal points. Apple’s prior commentary foreshadows a strong iPad quarter, surpassing the 15.3 million units sold in 1Q12. Any iPad sales number solidly above 17-19 million units will be looked at positively by the Street. With iPhone supply/demand having been in equilibrium for some time, Apple will not benefit from any significant inventory build this quarter, although carrier and country distribution expansion will result in solid yoy growth. Sell-side iPhone sales estimates have been set at somewhat realistic levels and one should not be surprised with sales between 25-30 million units, although iPhone sales estimates become somewhat irrelevant as we get closer to the new iPhone launch.

AAPL 2Q12 Estimate


Revenue: $40.6 billion (AAPL guidance: $32.5 billion/Consensus: $36.0 billion) 
  • I expect iPad and iPhone to represent approximately 75% of Apple’s quarterly revenue.  

GM: 42.9%  (AAPL guidance: 42%/Consensus: 42.7%)

  • Apple’s margin jumped to 44.7% last quarter, from 40.5% in 2011. Continued strong iPhone sales should benefit overall GM in 2Q12,  with attractive component pricing providing additional support. 

EPS: $11.45  (AAPL guidance: $8.50/Consensus: $9.81) 

  • I expect Apple to report 79% yoy EPS growth, which is slightly less than the 83% yoy EPS growth observed in 2011.


Product Unit Sales and Commentary

Macs: 4.3 million (14% yoy growth)

  • With no Mac updates during the quarter, I expect Mac shipments to show continued yoy growth, albeit at a slower pace than 1Q12. iPad cannibalization is also picking up as consumers bypass Macs for lower-priced iPads. 

iPad: 12.0 million (155% yoy growth)

  • Apple sold three million new iPads during opening weekend (includes pre-orders that shipped for the 12 days leading up to the March 16 launch, but not iPad 2 sales).  My iPad estimate is primarily based on weekly sales run rates, using Apple’s new iPad opening weekend sales as a benchmark between slower iPad sales in January and February and the supply/demand imbalance at the end of March. Unlike last year’s iPad launch, Apple seemed to have a better handle with new iPad supply, as online shipment waits did not reach 2011 levels, even with a more extensive international rollout. My estimate assumes approximately 6 million new iPads sold during the last 3.5 weeks of March and an additional 6 million iPads sold in January, February, and the beginning of March. 

iPod: 6.8 million (25% yoy decline)

  • Representing only 2.7% of estimated 2Q12 revenue, the iPod is a footnote. 

iPhone: 36.4 million (95% yoy growth)

  • My estimate reflects an average 2.2 million weekly sales run rate and the addition of approximately 6 to 8 million iPhones into the distribution channel (approaching Apple’s desired 4 to 6 week range). For some perspective, Apple saw a 1.6 million weekly iPhone sales run rate during 2Q11 (pre-iPhone 4S).  My 2Q12 estimate assumes 38% yoy growth in the weekly run rate, which I think is reasonable given  the iPhone 4S and increased iPhone penetration at newer carriers (including Verizon and Sprint) and countries (China). 

When Apple releases earnings on April 24, many will look at iPad and iPhone sales as an indicator for continued strong consumer demand. I suspect Apple may be allowed some breathing room on iPad sales given the supply/demand imbalance and trickiness surrounding a new product launch. Meanwhile, iPhone lacked any significant interferences during the quarter, with results dependent on demand, and to a lesser extent, the number of units added into the distribution channel. 

Thoughts on the new iPad

Software and Hardware

Why has iPad been so successful?  Intriguing software?  Gorgeous hardware?  After using iPad 2 for a year, my connection with the device has been formed by the seamless interaction between software and hardware.  The iPad form factor seemingly disappears as I interact with iOS apps. Meanwhile, iPad competitors have focused on only one aspect of the software & hardware duplex; either shipping okay software (“okay” can be an overstatement) with mediocre hardware, or okay hardware (again, I am being generous) with buggy software. The new iPad’s improved hardware features, along with new apps, combine to form a package that can appear to be “magical” to the user. 

Motorola RAZR Syndrome

One of the bigger risks Apple faces is the “Motorola RAZR Syndrome”, or reliance on your current success at the detriment of your future success.  After three generations of iPads, it is clear that Apple understands its biggest competitor is Apple. The new iPad’s biggest competition will come from iPad 2, while the original iPad was iPad’s 2 biggest competitor. Even though the original iPad sold well, Apple continued to push the envelope with iPad 2, and now the same can be said with the new iPad. Cameras, a Retina display, faster guts, amazing software, improved battery life, and 4G LTE, all at the same $499 entry-level price point.  

iPad 2 Price Drop  

Although Apple devoted only a brief minute to iPad 2’s new $399 price, consumers will give the $100 price drop much more attention.  For many, price remains king.  While $399 is still a lot of money, consumers are starting to compare iPad to regular laptops, in which the $399 price tag doesn’t look nearly as steep. Similar to the iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 being bought by former feature phone owners, the iPad 2 will continue to sell well as laptop owners look at iPad for the first time. 

More iPads in the Wild?

Up to now the iPad had been looked at as largely an “inside the home” device, confined to the living or play room.  With the original iPad not having any cameras, using an iPad at a social event, such as a family occasion, picnic, or concert, was questionable.  Apple’s new video and picture software (and improved cameras) will give people a greater incentive to bring iPad to different gatherings and events.  While iPad is still no where near as convenient to transport as iPhone, it is easier to transport than any other computing device.  As more iPads find their way into the wild, a whole new marketing realm will kick in.  While advertisements can be effective, seeing friends or family enjoy their iPad outside the confines of their home represents a brand new marketing angle. 

Jony Ive and New Product Form Factors 

The new iPad’s form factor has subtle differences from iPad 2 (the minor variances might even be hard for a normal consumer to see or feel). While Apple’s SVP of Industrial Design, Jony Ive, is intimately involved in any form factor change, no matter how minuscule, my gut tells me we might see some interesting new form factors for most, if not all, of Apple’s product lines over the next year. I think this is what Tim Cook hinted at at the end of the new iPad’s unveiling when he said, “Across the year, you’re going to see a lot more of this kind of innovation. We are just getting started.” What is the point of changing form factors that seemingly don’t need to be fixed?  How much can you change a phone or tablet form factor? Apple doesn’t settle. New product form designs will focus on greater functionality and feasibility, all while keeping design at the forefront. Dimension barriers will be dismantled. A new round of product design and manufacturing innovation is on the horizon and Jony is guiding the ship.

Apple 1Q12 Preview: Tale of Two Products

Apple’s 1Q12 earnings report will boil down to two simple data points: iPhone and iPad sales. Guidance will take a back seat, as will margin expectations and management commentary. The market wants confirmation that iPhone and iPad demand is robust, especially after Apple’s disappointing 4Q11. 

The magic numbers will be 31 and 13. If Apple sold more than 31 million iPhones and 13 million iPads, Apple will have met expectations (sky-high for iPhone and lukewarm for iPad). Whisper numbers (the numbers that analysts secretly discuss) probably stand somewhere near 34 million iPhones and 15 million iPads, but missing whisper numbers usually won’t lead to negative EPS estimate revisions.

In an attempt to put the last few weeks of heightened iPhone 1Q12 expectations (and reduced iPad expectations) within context, and using my 1Q12 estimates published on November 18, 2011, I would put 27 million iPhones and 12 million iPads as the minimal bar Apple has to jump over in order to avoid significant negative EPS revisions and price target cuts.