Neil Cybart

Large M&A Is Not in Apple’s DNA: Case Study of Why Apple Won’t Buy Tesla

Apple’s Beats acquisition raised questions pertaining to Apple’s attitude towards acquisitions. The $3 billion price tag was approximately five times higher than that of its previous largest acquisition, NeXT in 1997, after adjusting for inflation. Was Beats the start of a new era in which Apple would follow other large tech companies and use some of its $150 billion cash pile to fund larger acquisitions? While Apple may alter its outward appearance in reaction to the environment, large M&A is not part of Apple’s DNA. With Apple’s product success built on collaboration and design and reinforced by Apple’s organizational structure, there is no room for large M&A. Using this theory to address a real case study, Apple will not buy Tesla because of the low probability of long-term value creation.

Acquiring Beats

Beats did not represent a change in Apple’s acquisition strategy. The $3 billion price, while large on paper, is a bit misleading because Apple acquired a significant amount of intangible assets, including brand and human capital, which I discussed in my piece titled “What the Beats is Going on? Thoughts on Apple Acquiring Beats” published soon after the rumor broke. With only 700 employees, Beats was not a large company. Approximately 200 employees were not given long-term Apple employment according to Bloomberg, leaving roughly a 500-person team, or a team the size of a small Apple division. If additional personnel are shifted to other departments over time, Apple is left with a 300-person team that can easily fit into Apple’s way of doing business. Beats ends up looking very similar to many other Apple acquisitions. I look at the Beats deal as Apple reacting to the changing music industry with no underlining change to its philosophy of avoiding large acquisitions, just as someone can change his or her physical appearance, despite having the same personality and DNA.

Apple’s Keys to Success

Apple SVP of Design Jony Ive isn’t one to shy away from describing how Apple has been so successful, and that trend continued last week with a talk he gave at Design Museum in London. To Jony, success is born from complete collaboration and focus, which at Apple means something more unique than at other companies.

Apple’s 18-person core industrial design team remains very loyal and tight-knit with no deflections over the years. The group’s small size and the benefits that arise from that make Jony hesitant to grow the group much more. It is that family-like bond that contributes to Apple’s success as products are created over a multi-year period with conversations in the earliest stages often determining where the next steps will lead. Jony told the audience at Design Museum, “[p]articularly at the beginning of ideas, we have to have incredible discipline to listen really hard. To realise we can end up somewhere very different if we make these decisions…[product design] always starts off as a conversation and a thought.”

Collaboration

Collaboration manifests itself elsewhere in Apple’s structure as major initiatives take resources from different departments.  An analogy I like to use associates an upcoming Apple product with a Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloon float.  The rope handlers (those who help guide the balloon) represent resources from different Apple departments.  If a few aren’t on the same page, the float may veer of course or become unsteady. Once the float has navigated the parade route safely, the rope handlers (employees) can move on to the next balloon (product). Bloomberg had reported that the Apple Watch had “hundreds of engineers, designers, and marketing people” working together over the span of two years. How can big M&A fit into this required collaboration to create additional value?

Design

Even if a company can find the secret to bottle collaboration, success is still not guaranteed as the keystone; intuitive design, is missing from the arch of success. Design and collaboration go hand-in-hand, not just for consumer tech hardware companies, but for any company selling a product. Jony explained this trend when he said, “I think it’s much harder for good design to come out of an organization and to come from that as a driving force. [Apple’s] goal is to desperately try to make the best products we can.” Adding in new teams, resources, and ideas to a very tightly controlled equation raises the risk of failure without adding much in the way of upside.  With Apple being a product-focused company, this delicate combination of intuitive design and collaboration makes it that much more difficult to add large M&A into the mix.

Apple’s Existing M&A Strategy

Apple has been quite active on the acquirer front, with approximately 35 acquisitions since the beginning of 2013, most of which were never made public. A few commonalities amongst these companies: small, focused, bolt-on type transactions.  Apple looks at acquisitions as a way to fill talent and resource holes that could only be addressed in a timely manner by acquisition. Tim Cook has often said while Apple has a significant amount of cash, Apple does not have unlimited resources in terms of human capital and will have holes that become apparent either in the areas of software deficiencies or hardware design.

Apple M&A Case Study: Tesla

BI Deputy Editor Jay Yarow published an article last week titled, “Apple Should Buy Tesla,” containing four reasons why Apple should acquire Tesla:

  • Apple can afford to spend $60 billion on Tesla so it should spend the cash.
  • Apple knows how to manufacture complex objects like phones and tablets, so a car shouldn’t be that much different.
  • Elon Musk could focus on other ventures besides cars.
  • Apple executives Eddy Cue, Phil Schiller, and Jony like cars.

While I assume some of these reasons are a bit tongue-in-cheek, and Yarow primarily is looking at Tesla’s popular Model S vehicle and the inability to meet demand due to manufacturing “troubles” as reasons for Apple to acquire the company, does Tesla pass the litmus test for representing a key Apple acquisition target? Three reasons lead me to conclude no; a Tesla acquisition would make little sense for Apple.

1) Tesla doesn’t bring enough value to the table. I struggle to see the value Tesla would provide Apple especially when compared to the value Tesla is creating on its own concerning energy generation, storage, and distribution.

  • Does Tesla have design talent? Yes. Does Apple need a significant infusion of design talent? No.
  • Does Tesla have a great product? Yes, the Model S. Does Apple need to have that product to offset a weaker product portfolio or missing hole in its ecosystem? No.
  • Does Tesla provide any strategic benefits to current Apple products? No (excluding possibly some aspects of battery R&D).
  • Does Tesla have headwinds or negatives that may continue after an acquisition? Yes. Regulatory roadblocks concerning vehicle sales as well as consumer limitations with electric cars.   

2) Tesla is too large and complex. With approximately 10,000 employees, a 5.5 million square foot assembly facility in Fremont, California, and now a $5 billion advanced battery factory being built in Nevada, Tesla would not be easy company to fold into Apple. Add in the financial complexity from building cars and owning such significant level of assets, and the financial impact on Apple quickly becomes just as ugly. Apple has traditionally outsourced manufacturing and assembly, and with Tesla that would be drastically altered as Tesla is known for its ability to turn raw materials into a finished product all in the same plant – one reason contributing to the vehicle’s high price.

3) Apple doesn’t need Elon Musk. Steve Jobs’ greatest product was Apple: a company built to allow complete collaboration and focus. At this point in Apple’s history, the company doesn’t need an Elon Musk figure, whose aspirational dreams concerning transportation and civilization may cause friction within Apple. That type of overarching reach and generalization could lead to significant issues for Apple and its product-led, design-focused goal where end products may end up having just as big impacts on society as some of Musk’s reaches, but without the fanfare during the development stage.

In a situation where Tesla did have value to bring to the table, such as incorporating CarPlay into its vehicles or battery technology, a partnership with Apple would make more sense, similar to Apple’s recent IBM enterprise partnership for getting more iOS devices into the corporate world.  In addition, even though Apple already has R&D dedicated to transport and vehicles, primarily on the side of energy production and efficiency, it’s not clear what the automotive industry will look like in 5-10 years and if there is a need for Apple to enter the space.  It may be more likely that Apple gets involved in automobiles at a point where the industry has shifted to a position where a new entrant with a different way of looking at the world and automobiles can enter the space to create a great product.

Apple’s M&A Going Forward

I wouldn’t expect any slowdown in Apple’s acquisition pace as the company continues to push the envelope with various products such as more powerful mobile devices, innovative industrial design, and new services for content (music, video, apps, and communication). By remaining “focused” on a few products, Apple does leave itself exposed to holes where outside talent may be needed, but with $150 billion of cash and a company DNA that doesn’t include large M&A, Apple has significant resources to accomplish the goal of making great products. 

 

 


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Week in Review; Most Popular Daily Email Links

I look back at the most popular links found in the AAPL Orchard daily email this past week. To receive this daily email containing Apple-related links and analysis, please subscribe here.

Most Popular Links of the Week:

1) Apple SVP of Design Jony Ive's talk at Design Museum in London. The talk focused on the issues with the way designers are educated and the lack of focus on making physical products. I thought Jony's comment on “careless” products from other companies and designers was pretty interesting: "If you expect me to buy something where all I can sense is carelessness, actually I think that is personally offensive...It's offensive culturally, because it shows a disregard for our fellow human."  Jony spoke for an hour and covered a range of topics. Dezeen took splendid notes. If you are interested in Apple or design, I recommend finding 10 minutes today and taking a read. - Dezeen

2) Apple Has a New Product: $300 Wireless Beats Headphones. They actually look pretty nice. It makes it even more amazing how Apple was able to turn generic white EarPods that came free with iPods and iPhones (and cost a few bucks to make) into such a powerful marketing tool up until a few years ago. - MacRumors

In a follow-up post, it seems like initial reviews are positive. - MacRumors  

Related: My four main takeaways from Beats' new $300 headphones. - Above Avalon

3) Apple's $3 Billion Bet on Reinventing the Music Industry. I had been mulling Apple and music for a number of weeks and over the past few days the increasing number of music-related news items actually makes my piece quite timely. There’s a lot to think about in the post, and I add more perspective and color on the subject in the upcoming Above Avalon podcast which will be published in the coming days. I think all music will eventually be free, but the music industry first needs its own “App Store” moment where a software platform can reset how the music industry makes money and Beats can be that platform. Similar to software post-App Store launch, music creation, distribution, and monetization can be revolutionized by a new platform where there are minimal barriers between fans and content creators. - Above Avalon

Reminders:

Podcast. The first episode of the Above Avalon podcast was published earlier this week containing introductions and comments about Apple Pay. Each week I will focus on one Apple-related topic. Listen and subscribe (for iTunes and Overcast) here. A new episode will be published in the coming days. 

Four Interesting Things About Apple's New $300 Beats Headphones

Event: Beats announces new $299 Solo2 Wireless on-ear headphones. 

1) These headphones are the same price as an iPad mini 2.  Higher-end Beats headphones go for $399; the price of iPad mini 3. The iPad mini will likely go down as having the lowest margins out of any mainstream Apple product in recent years (closer to 25-30% vs. iPhone's 55-60%). I would venture a guess that these Beats headphones probably have margins closer to iPhone (if not exceeding) and that is before taking into account any savings from Apple buying the company. 

2) Beats is using color as a price differentiator. Red, black, white, and blue costs $299, while Stone Grey, Hunter Green, Imperial Violet, Blush Rose, and Sapphire Blue costs $199. Reminds me a little bit of iPhone 5c.  Interestingly, the red is only available at Verizon (I assume some prior business partnership?) Edit: Looks like the five additional colors is actually for the wired Solo2. Color still being used as differentiator but for different models. 

3) I estimate Apple will sell around 2-3M Beats headphones in 2015. A high estimate would be around 4M. With an average selling price of around $285, Apple may bring in $600-800M of annual revenue, or 10% of Apple's old "accessory" revenue which is not a big line item when compared to overall revenue. These headphones will not move any financial needle for Apple. Instead these devices are all about brand positioning and mindshare (getting people to see them and talking about them). 

4) Looking at $299 headphones makes it that much more amazing to think how Apple was able to turn generic white EarPods that came free with iPods and iPhones into such a powerful marketing tool up to a few years ago. 

Bonus: I expect to see more interesting things come from the wireless on-ear/in-ear headphone space. 

Yale Researcher Inadvertently Helps Market the Apple Watch

Event: A Yale grad student thinks he is the first to prove causality between iPhone usage and an increase in injuries to young children due to distracted parenting.  

Craig Palsson looked at the way the iPhone 3G was launched exclusive to AT&T, tying the subsequent 3G roll-out in the U.S. to nearby hospital data. He found that injuries to children under five increased 10% from 2005 to 2012 while there was no discernible increase for older children.  The full report can be found here.  Palsson theorizes that parents are more distracted since they can do more work around the house on their iPhone resulting in lower parental supervision. 

I don't view the iPhone, or any smartphone for that matter, as the most efficient device for consuming information.  If I'm not actively interacting with the device, swiping left and right or tapping various buttons, then the device isn't providing much data and information. I am also forced to jump through hoops just to get the same small bits of information throughout the day such as a stock ticker, email, or location marker. 

Enter: Apple Watch. 

Apple Watch will excel at displaying cursory information on a display that is always in line-of-sight. How would you know when to briefly look down at your wrist? Taptic Engine (produces haptic feedback).  We can take it even further and the Taptic Engine may remove the need to actually look at the device. Your significant other can let you know they are on their way home by three quick taps. By streamlining the way we consume data using new sensory signals, the Apple Watch will not only usher in the era of personalized technology but also a new form of personal communication.

Less time focused on our gadgets and more time viewing the world around us. 

 

Apple's Mac Resilience in a Mobile World

A curious thing happened to Apple last quarter: Seven years after launching the iPhone and four years after launching the iPad, Apple reported the best sales quarter ever for Mac. The belief that Apple would never sell as many Macs as it did during the first quarter of 2012 (known as “Peak Mac”) was busted.  Tim Cook and Apple are as bullish as ever on Mac. I don’t think it’s a stretch to theorize that Mac’s resilience is born from the phones and tablets that many assumed would make the Mac irrelevant. As mobile devices continue to invade our culture, the Mac may find an attractive computing niche thanks to its special use cases and design.

Mac vs. Mobile Devices

Tim Cook spoke highly about the Mac a couple of weeks ago at WSJD, summing it up with “people love big screens”. It is that stark contrast to mobile devices that benefits the Mac as consumers have an easier time differentiating the uses cases between a Mac and mobile device.  After the iPad was launched, consensus quickly settled on the iPad cannibalizing the Mac.  Running with Apple’s stereotypical “cannibalization is good as long as one of our products is to blame” and a cursory glance at Apple’s 2013 quarterly results, which showed declining Mac sales, was enough for many to cast the Mac aside. 

I even thought the “iPad will cannibalize the Mac” argument made sense as I owned an older 2008 Macbook, which was giving me a lot of trouble, and my new iPad 2 was occupying all of my attention. But as smartphone penetration grew, and more importantly, mobile device capability expanded, the Mac started to stand for something that a phone or tablet would never be able to bring to the table: a nice big screen. Compared to a 4.7-inch iPhone or an iPad, an 11-inch and 13-inch Macbook Air are more enjoyable to do various tasks and work, such as researching a topic or writing a report. A 27-inch iMac? Even better.  

Fast forward a few years and I knew I needed a new computer so I bought a new iMac instead of an iPad Air because I had to do more writing and wanted a bigger screen for watching video. My Mac just cannibalized an iPad sale. I must not be alone as Mac unit sales have begun to stabilize and grew 21% year-over-year last quarter, aided by recent price cuts to MacBook Pro. Looking ahead, recent product updates should help continue year-over-year growth trends through 2015, highlighted by the grey bars in the following chart.

Mac is the Steady Ship to Mobile's Ebb and Flow

The Mac may also be benefitting from the continued ebb and flow of mobile devices. Consumers are still trying to decide what size of glass to carry in their pockets and soon on wrists. For some the trend is larger, embracing the 5.5-inch smartphone, for others the 4.7 and 4.0-inch form factor is best. Similarly with tablets, the iPad mini seemed to be the darling of the iPad line in 2013, but now looks increasingly likely to be discontinued with the iPad Air 2 as the best-selling iPad.  All the while, the Mac’s large gorgeous screens have remained largely unchanged as its discovery phase occurred last decade. Consumers know what it's like using a Mac/PC. It's that comfort that can drive consistent upgrades through the years while our mobile devices continue to morph in order to find that perfect combination.  

Design and Innovation

Instead of winding down Mac R&D, Apple continues to give the lineup the required attention and resources needed for continued evolutionary and revolutionary updates. Apple’s 2014 Mac lineup speaks volumes with a new Mac Pro , Mac mini, and retina iMac, along with solid updates to the rest of the Mac lineup. Has the Mac line ever been stronger? 

Source: Apple

Compared to other research budgets in Cupertino, the Mac simply doesn’t compare, but that’s not the point and instead a better comparison would be Mac’s R&D spend today to that from a few years ago. I would wager there hasn’t been much of a reduction.  In some ways, Mac’s design is the number one reason that people choose a Mac over PC. While a larger screen and dedicated keyboard may be what gets a customer interested in Mac, the design often is what leads to the purchase button being pressed. Competitors realize this and miraculously their designs have begun to mirror that of Mac. 

Mac’s Growing Niche and the Future

The Mac has found its niche. Apple will likely sell 200M+ iPhones, 60M+ iPads, and 20M Macs over the next four quarters. Twenty million units is not bad for a product that was supposed to be made irrelevant by mobile. Going forward, there are a few larger themes that will help when thinking about Mac.

  1. Apple will continue to work on lowering Mac prices, especially at the low-end of the lineup.
  2. The Mac’s differentiated software from iOS will be a selling point.
  3. Apple will continue to innovate with Mac where it matters (productivity and design).

I suspect there will be a few wildcards thrown into the mix, possibly as early as next year.  An iPad Pro, which I discussed in more detail a few weeks ago in my "Thoughts on iPad" post, may be unveiled (think iPad Air but with a 12.9-inch display and possibly new software features and accessories).  Such a device would represent Apple’s response to softening iPad sales in the face of larger smartphones and Mac's resiliency. Looking further out I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple tracks how a larger iPad sells in comparison to the Mac line and then uses that information to decide if it is time to rethink both the Mac and iPad lines and if there is some kind of new device that would take the best features of iPad and Mac while not adding new friction points. In addition, Chromebooks in education deserve to be mentioned but at this point I still see Chromebooks more as a threat to Windows machines than the Mac. Many school districts like Chromebooks because of their low costs, placing them in a different target market than the Mac.

As Steve Jobs said, “If you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what's next." For Apple, the Mac has been great and I’m sure they are busy on making it even better.