Apple and Amazon View Failure Very Differently

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos was the keynote speaker at the Business Insider Ignition conference a few days ago. A few of his comments about failure jumped out to me.

It’s incredibly hard to get people to take bold bets. You need to encourage that and if you are going to take bold bets, there are going to be experiments, and if there are experiments, you don’t know ahead of time whether they are going to work. Experiments are by their very nature prone to failure, but big successes, a few big successes compensate for dozens and dozens of things that didn’t work.”

Companies that don’t embrace failure, they eventually get in the desperate position where the only thing they can do is make a Hail Mary bet at the very end of their corporate existence…I don’t believe in bet the company bets. That’s when you are desperate.

Last month, Apple SVP Design Jony Ive gave a talk at Design Museum and the topic of failure was discussed.

I would say the priority is that we learn how to care and we learn how to fail and that we’re prepared to screw up the work that we’ve done and throw it away even if we don’t know what we’re going to do instead. When I’ve explained to people before and said ‘well we screwed this up, we parked this,’ normally I can say ‘and look what we went on to do’.

If it’s not very good we should just stop it, even if we’ve spent a lot of money trying to develop it. It’s scary, and we’ve been there on many occasions where you’ve spent this much money and I’m talking too loud to try and convince myself that it’s OK and it’s not. It’s one of the fantastic things that I feel so fortunate to work with a group of people who are very comfortable with that ‘yeah it’s not good enough we should stop doing this’ and we don’t talk about all the money we’ve just spent. Well, they might do behind my back.

Both men accept failure and I suspect nearly every human needs to accept failure in some capacity. What is interesting is where Bezos and Jony are willing to accept those failures. For Jony and Apple, the goal is to fail behind closed doors. For Amazon, failure out in the public marketplace is thought to have little consequence and is even encouraged. For Apple, failure is actually minimized by taking bigger risks. Amazon does the exact opposite, by not taking big risks, failure is more acceptable and manageable.

I'm intrigued by Amazon's hardware strategy. While the Kindle found its niche, subsequent versions that were more akin to iPad never saw the same level of success, while every other Amazon consumer tech hardware product hasn't lived up to the hype (Amazon has never released sales numbers, but share/sales data and surveys all point to the same conclusions). For Amazon, public failure with the Fire Phone is acceptable, and even applauded, as the thought process is that things can be learned about a failure, and then future versions may have a better chance of success. Do consumer habits support such a stance? Will consumers forget about past product shortcomings, and give subsequent reiterations a fair chance? I'm not so sure.

Over the past 10 years, Apple has had very few hardware failures, with the iPod Hi-Fi speaker system standing out as maybe the biggest flop. While Apple has its fair share of hardware blemishes or minor flaws that are rectified in subsequent versions, the public has come to expect Apple's best when it comes to hardware, as most of the company's failures have been kept hidden in Jony's labs, with the public seeing only the big hardware bets. Brand equity is built in consumers' minds, while public perception and anticipation remain elevated. I suspect consumer tech hardware failures take a much bigger long-term toll on a company than Jeff Bezos would like the world to believe.     

Apple's Share Repurchases Have Benefited Shareholders: Follow-Up

Since my Apple's Share Repurchases Have Benefited Shareholders by $80 Billion article was mentioned on Business Insider Deputy Editor Jay Yarow's latest podcast with Eric Jackson and Ben Thompson, titled Tim Cook's $100 Billion Mistake (44:19 mark), I thought it was appropriate to publish my response. The part of the podcast specifically related to my article had to deal with whether Apple's buyback was a waste of time and resources, akin to IBM financial engineering, and if Tim Cook is just merely trying to please shareholders. 

My response: Apple's stock buyback is meant to benefit shareholders. Who else would the stock buyback be meant for? Apple is owned by its shareholders and with that ownership comes privileges such as voting in directors that are tasked with overseeing Tim Cook to make sure shareholders' interests are being considered. The stock buyback is a transfer of wealth meant to benefit shareholders (who aren't selling shares to Apple), especially when the stock being bought is considered undervalued by traditional financial valuation metrics, such as forward price/earnings and price/cash flow ratios.

It is a fact that the buyback has raised EPS per share and that each remaining share now has a higher ownership percentage (albeit very tiny) of Apple's earnings. Apple has bought back 10% of its shares, which means that for Apple to trade at the same market cap today than it did two years ago, would require 10% fewer shares needing to be bought. In terms of dividends, the remaining shareholders may now be in a better position to benefit if Apple raises its dividend purely because of fewer shares outstanding. Arguing that Tim Cook is "wasting" money by simply giving excess cash back to shareholders fails to grasp the actual debate of whether share buyback benefited shareholders. I laid out my argument for how shareholders have benefited by $80 billion, but the podcast didn't address that, instead just saying that buybacks don't benefit stocks and shareholders (with no evidence to support that claim) and that Tim Cook was trying to please shareholders, instead of taking the excess cash and buying companies, that by no means are guaranteed to fit seamlessly and effortlessly into Apple's unique structure. 

CEOs and CFOs are tasked with keeping shareholders' best interests in mind. For many public companies, CEOs spend a few weeks on the road each year meeting with investors and representing the company to Wall Street. CFOs are often tasked with talking to clients throughout the year, which may end up taking up significant portions of their schedules. This is part of proper corporate governance and should be applauded, not ridiculed, or positioned as a bad decision. Management teams ultimately work for shareholders, through the board of directors, so taking a dinner with a group of investors does not mean Tim Cook is engrossed in Wall Street to the point of not having time to manage Apple.  

The bigger issue with the Apple share repurchase debate comes down to unfalsifiable statements, or claims that can not be proven false, such as:

"Apple stock would be worth just as much as it is now if the buyback was not done."

One can not prove this statement false because it never happened. We don't know what Apple would look like if it hadn't bought back stock. I find the current debate to be quite funny as it essentially boils down to arguing whether Apple should alter it's strategy to spend excess cash, the same strategy responsible for giving them $150 billion of cash. Apple buys companies. Apple buys back its stock. Apple pays dividends. Despite doing all three of these things simultaneously, Apple still has $150 billion of cash that can be used to buy other companies, invest in itself, and return excess cash to shareholders. Classifying buyback as a waste with no proven benefit to shareholders, without any analysis or data to back up such a claim, takes things a bit too far. 

Apple Watch's Secret Weapon

Apple Watch creates an interesting dilemma as personalized luxury, built around technology, is positioned against timelessness. There is increasing evidence that Apple Watch's personalized luxury will trump the device's lack of timelessness, which will not only impact Apple's financials, but cause a major upheaval in the traditional luxury watch market. 

Starting in early 2015, Apple will sell three distinct watch collections, each positioned for a different type of buyer.  Apple Watch Sport will be positioned for those with a more active lifestyle, or just looking for a less-subtle fashion accessory, while Apple Watch will be for the all-purpose, practical buyer. At the top of the price range, Apple Watch Edition will rely on refined elegance to sell to the few that truly value personalized luxury. Both the Apple Watch Sport and Apple Watch will be priced at levels that leaves timelessness out of the purchase decision, largely as a result of the device's perceived utility and value. The Apple Watch Edition raises some interesting questions though in terms of luxury, technology, and timelessness.

The luxury watch market prides itself on combining craftsmanship and timelessness to create emotion, which is then passed down from generation to generation. With a smartwatch, and its reliance on parts that will not be able to stand up against the test of time, how can luxury be a selling point? Several luxury watchmakers have given hints that they think a smartwatch's lack of timelessness guarantees traditional luxury watches will not be threatened by this new crop of wrist gadgets. I'm not so sure that logic will stand the test of time. 

With Apple Watch Edition, Apple is appealing to a small group of buyers that want luxury combined with personalization (think different bands and faces), something traditional luxury watches are unable to provide. Will there be buyers that prefer luxury over technology's inherit lack of timelessness?  Looking at the cottage industry that has developed around adding personal luxury to iPhones, the answer is a resounding yes. Luxury is a feeling one receives from wearing or using a product, regardless of it's utility or lifespan. Dezeen highlighted Feld & Volk, which describes itself as "an association, consisting of artists and engineers, who create unique devices developed on the basis of iPhone and iPad." Feld & Volk disassembled the iPhone 6 to see which parts could be swapped out with more expensive counterparts. The end result is a collection of truly unique iPhones, one of which is called 'Wood', a $4,799 iPhone 6 that includes a back panel made of Karelian birch, 24K gold plated buttons, and an illuminated Apple logo made of sapphire glass. Meanwhile, another company called Brikk sells a 24K gold iPhone 6 Plus for $5,995Vertu sells a range of Android-powered phones, with some models costing up to $20,000. While the market for these phones is quite small (Vertu has sold over 300,000 phones to date), the same can be said about Apple Watch Edition if the device is priced around the $5,000 to $8,000 range. I estimated Apple could sell a few hundred thousand watches a year from the Apple Watch Edition collection assuming a $7,500 average price, with China being the major target market. 

Why would someone pay $7,500 for a watch that will not stand the test of time? The value of personalized luxury outweighs the device's short utility period. Looking at the Apple Watch Edition, I don't see the point in having the electronics be interchangeable or upgradable. An individual buying such a watch doesn't care about the device's lack of timelessness and that should keep traditional watch makers awake at night. Apple's embrace of personalized luxury has the potential to shake-up a number of industries, including the traditional luxury watch market.  

iPad's Biggest Problem in Education is iPad

Apple has a storied history in the education market with a long-standing goal of transforming the way students use technology to learn. In recent months, the rise of Chromebooks and the "Cloud" and a few well-publicized iPad initiative failures have raised questions if Apple is approaching the education market with the correct strategy or if competitors' offerings are squeezing out Apple products from the classroom. I don't look at Chromebooks as competing with iPad in education and I'm rather baffled at why the education market is being labeled as a zero-sum game for computing devices. Instead, I view the iPad's biggest roadblock in education is the iPad. With a rather limited range of functionality in a strict learning environment, instead of appealing to the education mass market, iPad may be better suited serving niche learning environments where a higher-priced, specialized learning tool is desired. 

Education and Technology

Unlike the consumer market, education and technology are guided by different principals including elected boards, budgets, studies, and mandates. When discussing technology adoption in education I think it is important to recognize this different structure compared to the consumer market. Even within education, there are different environments for how technology is adopted as private, parochial, and charter schools determine technology prerequisites differently than public schools. While the economy may have improved, many municipalities continue to run with very tight budgets, and education is often the largest expense line item for most cities. With such a backdrop, school districts are looking to make each technology dollar go as far as possible. Price matters in education and that dynamic can not be stressed enough. Two weeks ago, the NYC Department of Education approved Chromebooks due to two reasons: familiarity and low-price.   

Chromebook Advantages

Along with price, school districts are buying Chromebooks for various reasons, including the fact that the computer serves student's needs really well. With many teachers and administrators relying on Google Apps for daily tasks such as attendance, grading, and scheduling, not to much more student-facing apps like YouTube, a Chromebook is an obvious way of utilizing Google's services and cloud infrastructure. Concerning affordability, deployability, and supportability, Chromebooks check off many prerequisites that schools are looking for to expand technology in the classroom. 

iPad Disadvantages

While people love iPads, teachers and administrators have run into issues with iPads in the classroom, including logistical bottlenecks and usability.  When compared to how schools use Chromebooks (sharing is a key tenet), iPads' single-user framework embraces the idea of the iPad remaining with the same student in school and at home. While this program has been adopted in smaller schools where families buy the iPad themselves, for larger school systems, this computing method is impractical, and may represent one of the biggest roadblocks for widespread iPad usage in education.  Looking at iPad in the upper grades, lack of usability begins to stand out with no dedicated keyboard and lackluster curriculum offerings.

The Cloud

The argument is pretty straightforward: With everything moving to the cloud, hardware will turn into a commodity. In some ways it's simply taking a page from Christensen's 'Innovator's Dilemma'. What's missing? Brand and design. However, in education, school boards aren't looking at brand and design when considering what can be purchased to fit within a certain budget. Instead, design is largely pushed to very specific needs, such as gadgets for science labs or music halls. I suspect there will still be strong demand for differentiated, personalized hardware going forward, and the specialized education market is no different. 

L.A. School District iPad Program Embodies iPad's Issues in Education 

In 2013, the Los Angeles Unified School District launched a $1.3 billion technology initiative that included purchasing 605,000 iPads. Then-Superintendent John Deasy applauded the program and said the launch went smoothly. Fast forward to yesterday, and the FBI seized 20 boxes of documents related to the way the iPad bidding process was handled with accusations that Deasy rushed the iPad initiative through because he wanted to partner with Apple. As of today, the district has purchased "only" 91,000 iPads with plans on buying an additional 14,875 units, but along with laptops and 4,000 Chromebooks. What went wrong? Were Chromebooks to blame for iPad's misfortune? Not quite.

Rushed Rollout and Improper Training. Teachers complained of a rushed iPad rollout, where iPads were delivered, but the underlining curriculum was either not available or not even in existence. 

iPad Misusage. Students deleted security filters exposing them to the full internet. Anecdotal evidence points to widespread misusage, including students stealing or hiding iPads in school with no proper protocol for tracking where each iPad was at all times. 

In both of those cases, the iPad and any underlying infrastructure, or lack thereof, was to blame for iPad's failure. While price did play a role as well, there is little evidence of Chromebooks and laptops replacing the need for iPads altogether, but rather the iPad was simply never up to the broader initiative.

Apple's iPad Strategy in Education 

Apple's biggest problem in education is iPad, not the Chromebook. In many cases, where Chromebooks are being bought in bulk, the iPad was never positioned as a viable competitor or option to begin with. A few things Apple may do to address this current dilemma include:

Embrace Niche. Not trying to be everything to everyone. Instead of shipping a product geared towards widespread education adoption, Apple would focus on what makes the iPad stand out: the seamless intersection of hardware and software. The iPad may be more appropriate for lower grades where touch has a bigger impact on learning and there seems to be a more vibrant curriculum available, while the iPad can be used for more specific uses in the higher grades such as in the sciences and arts.

Infrastructure. I think one of iPad's issues in education is the lack of support for teachers and administrators in terms of apps and device management. Whereas Chromebooks give students the bare necessities (which is all that is desired); iPad educational software, especially with higher grades in mind, has been disappointing and unable to tap iPad's potential. Apple's grand vision for interactive textbooks has flatlined due to much larger complexities beyond just iPad and Apple.

Apple's goal in education has always been to foster new ways of learning. Over the years, as technology costs have come down and schools embraced the cloud, cheaper opportunities have ushered in more widespread technology usage in schools. Meanwhile, Apple continues to sell millions of higher-priced iPads into education annually, despite school boards trying to meet budgets, and various mandates adding layers of bureaucracy to purchasing decisions. In this context, iPad's ultimate goal in education is to provide specialized hardware and software for fostering new ways of learning, and I suspect there is a healthy market for such a product.

Apple Flash Crash Brings the Worst out of Stock News Websites

Apple stock experienced a flash crash yesterday morning, dropping 3% in one minute on extremely heavy volume. With Apple trading near all-time highs, market pundits have become increasingly eager to point out why Apple's stock dropped. CNBC ran an article yesterday titled, "Here's why Apple shares took a dive: Pros".  With such a headline, I knew what I was getting myself into and I wasn't disappointed as the article contained six reasons, impressively none of which were related to each other, that explained why Apple's stock had crashed. 

Reason 1: Morgan Stanley Downgrade

Daryanani got on the phone with his trading desk to find out what they were seeing. It's a common occurrence on Wall Street for sell-side analysts to periodically check-in with their trading desk to see if there is anything unusual with the incoming buy and sell orders. In reality, the traders are just reading blogs and AOL IM themselves looking for reasons a stock is up or down since they don't know either. 

Reason 2: Program Selling 

After getting off the phone with his traders, maybe Daryanani got some incoming calls from clients that actually knew what was going on. CNBC gives the reason one sentence. 

 

Reason 3: Technical Analysis 

People sold Apple because it crossed a random moving average. 

 

Reason 4: Profit-Taking

Apple is down 3% in one minute and Basenese concludes that it resulted from long-term investors deciding now is the time to sell. It is just a coincidence that everyone decided to sell at exactly the same second...literally. 

 

Reason 5: Stock Upgrade 

Basenese also thinks a stock upgrade may have caused Apple's stock to crash.  I assume a stock downgrade would cause Apple's stock to pop?

 

Reason 6: Weak Black Friday Sales 

I assume this reason came in from traders with little to no knowledge about Apple or that Black Friday sales metrics were largely irrelevant because of retailers holding sales during the week leading up to Black Friday.  

The CNBC article has 143 comments so I assume it accomplished its goal of attracting page views. Meanwhile, Reuters published an article yesterday about Apple's flash crash, listing one primary explantation: algorithmic and high-frequency trading.  

 

Reason 1: Algorithmic Trading

Similar to the 2010 Flash Crash, yesterday's flash crash impacted over 300 stocks, not just Apple. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading (CFTC) looked into the 2010 Flash Crash and concluded that one trader initiated a sell program to sell S&P 500 futures contracts. High-frequency trading firms saw the order and started selling the contracts they had just bought from this one trader. A resulting liquidity vacuum (lack of buyers) formed and then spread into the equity markets. I suspect something along those lines impacted the stock market yesterday morning. Of course, this theory doesn't lead to the most exciting headlines and stories, so when the next flash crash occurs (and it will), I'm confident we will see new articles from the "pros" giving us six explantations for why Apple crashed.