WSJ's Odd iPhone Story, Apple Plays a Different Game, Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • WSJ's Odd iPhone Story
  • Apple Plays a Different Game
  • Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company

Today's email begins with my thoughts on the WSJ's article about iPhone losing out in Asia to low-cost Chinese smartphone manufacturers. We then look at three smartphone industry data points that reveal the game Apple is actually playing in the smartphone industry. The email concludes with why I don't think Apple is an ecosystem company. Calls for Apple to launch some kind of "Apple as a service" subscription tied to the Apple ecosystem are off the mark. 

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Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales, Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction, Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales
  • Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction
  • Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q

Today's email begins with my estimates for Microsoft Surface unit sales over the holidays. We then discuss my thoughts on Surface as an iPad/Mac competitor. Next, we turn to Fossil's 4Q17 earnings. We go over my estimates for Fossil smartwatch sales over the holidays and how the company is seeing some minor traction in wrist wearables land. The email concludes with my notes from Apple's 10-Q for 1Q18. 

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HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture, Apple's Obligation to Customers, Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture
  • Apple's Obligation to Customers
  • Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake

Today's email begins with my thoughts on HomePod leaving white rings on some wooden surfaces. There are aspects to this story that just don't sit well with me. We then discuss Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) increasing its Apple stake during 4Q17. We look at Buffett's AAPL purchases over the past two years and I share a few additional observations regarding the news. 

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Apple Delays iOS 12 Features, iOS Development Timeline Changes, A Tug-of-War Within Apple ​​​​​​​

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Delays iOS 12 Features
  • iOS Development Timeline Changes
  • A Tug-of-War Within Apple

Today's email is dedicated to discussing Apple software potentially becoming a crack in the Apple machine. We look at recent reports about iOS 12 features being delayed and changes made to the way iOS development is handled. We then investigate what I think is the root of the problem. 

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Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing, Apple Slows Down Debt Buying, Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing
  • Apple Slows Down Debt Buying
  • Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch

We begin with reports that Goldman Sachs is in talks with Apple regarding product financing opportunities. I dispel a few rumors attached to the story. The discussion then shifts to Apple beginning to prep its investment portfolio for major changes related to returning excess cash to shareholders. The email concludes with a discussion of Google's plans to embrace the iPhone X notch and why Android OEMs are ready to go all-in on the notch.  

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AAPL Volatility, Apple Is Winning the HomePod Debate, Apple Music to Surpass Spotify in U.S.

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • AAPL Volatility
  • Apple Is Winning the HomePod Debate
  • Apple Music to Surpass Spotify in U.S.

We discuss my thoughts on Apple's recent stock price volatility. The discussion then turns to my initial HomePod impressions and why I think Apple is winning the debate surrounding HomePod. The email concludes with the WSJ painting a very different picture than consensus of the music streaming market in the U.S.

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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)

Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 1Q18 earnings review. This past Friday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 32 different topics. 

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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

  • The Messy iPhone Business
  • iPhone X Questions
  • Apple Wearables Shine
  • Balance Sheet Bonanza  
  • Apple Tries New Narrative

Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 1Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The second half of my earnings review (will be published on Monday) will go over my full notes from Apple's earnings release and conference call. 

My full Apple 1Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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The HomePod Manifesto, Reception to HomePod Is Shifting, iPhone Sales Share Hits Record High in China

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The HomePod Manifesto
  • Reception to HomePod Is Shifting
  • iPhone Sales Share Hits Record High in China

We discuss my thoughts on Apple's HomePod manifesto. Apple SVP Phil Schiller explained Apple's vision for stationary speakers in the home. The discussion then turns to why I think the reception facing HomePod has begun to shift. The email concludes with new data suggesting massive changes are unfolding in China's smartphone market. 

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Nikkei Throws Cold Water on iPhone X, iPhone X Demand Worries Overblown, Apple Supplier Refutes Nikkei's iPhone X Claim

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Nikkei Throws Cold Water on iPhone X
  • iPhone X Demand Worries Overblown
  • Apple Supplier Refutes Nikkei's iPhone X Claim

We discuss my thoughts on Nikkei's report about Apple slashing iPhone X production on weaker-than-expected demand. The discussion then turns to why I think growing concerns over iPhone X demand are overblown. The email concludes with one Apple supplier pushing back against Nikkei's iPhone X production cut claim. 

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HomePod's Actual Competition, Apple Watch's Competition, The Sonos Sales Pitch

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • HomePod's Actual Competition
  • Apple Watch's Competition
  • The Sonos Sales Pitch

We discuss my thoughts on HomePod's position in the marketplace and the product's most genuine competitor. The discuss then turns to Apple Watch's most genuine competitor. The email ends with Sonos and the company's sales pitch for how it will compete against HomePod and the growing number of stationary smart speakers. 

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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Revenue, EPS, 2Q18 Guidance, Big Picture)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Revenue, EPS, 2Q18 Guidance, Big Picture)

Today's email concludes my Apple 1Q18 earnings preview. We look at the more important financial line items, 2Q18 guidance, and the big picture heading into next week's earnings. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates and why my revenue and EPS estimates are high compared to consensus. The first three parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage), here (iPhone sales estimate), and here (iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates).

My full Apple 1Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services Estimates), Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future, Netflix 4Q17 Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

  • Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services Estimates)
  • Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future
  • Netflix 4Q17 Earnings

Today's email continues my Apple 1Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first two parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone sales estimate). Tomorrow's email will conclude my earnings preview with a big picture view heading into next week's earnings, as well as my revenue, EPS, margin, and 2Q18 guidance estimates. Today's email also goes over my latest AboveAvalon.com article about Apple Watch. We conclude our discussion with my key takeaway from Netflix's 4Q17 earnings. 

My full Apple 1Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (iPhone Sales Estimate)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone Sales Estimate)

Today's email continues my Apple 1Q18 earnings preview. (The first part of the preview is available here.) We go over my iPhone unit sales, ASP, and revenue estimates. In addition, we go over the methodology and data behind my iPhone estimates. Tomorrow's email will go over my iPad, Mac, Services, and Apple Watch estimates.

My full Apple 1Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage), iOS 11 Adoption, BMW and CarPlay Pricing

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 1Q18 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage)
  • iOS 11 Adoption
  • BMW and CarPlay Pricing

The email includes the first part of my Apple 1Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings report. The discussion then turns to the latest iOS adoption figures from Apple. We conclude with a closer look at BMW's decision to charge for CarPlay as an annual subscription. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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