Neil Cybart

China's Yuan Devaluation and Apple

Today's Above Avalon story: 

  • China's Yuan Devaluation 

Given the importance of this development, I am dedicating today's email to the issue, breaking up the topic into a few stories.

  • What Happened?
  • Brief Background
  • China's Growth Story is Cracking
  • Continued Yuan Devaluation Headwinds
  • Where Does This Leave Apple?
  • Final Takeaways

Yesterday, China's central bank cut its daily reference rate for the yuan against the U.S dollar by 1.9%. Earlier today, the rate was cut by another 1.6% with the central bank ending up intervening to prop up the currency at the end of the day. This is a significant negative development for Apple. More concerning is that this move is now causing more people to begin questioning Apple's growth story in China. We take a closer look at the yuan, including a brief background of the issue at hand and what it might mean for Apple's growth potential in China. We also look at the new headwinds now facing Apple, the exact parts of Apple's business impacted by a weaker yuan, and a few final takeaways.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Thoughts on Alphabet, Finding iPad's Future, U.S. Watch Sales Collapsed in June

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Thoughts on Alphabet  - We discuss two primary takeaways from yesterday's big announcement from Larry Page, as well as the primary implications this reorganization may have on Apple. 
  • Finding iPad's Future ("Director's Cut") - I discuss a bit of background as to how I've thought about the iPad and why change is needed. 
  • U.S. Watch Sales Collapsed in June - NPD reported that watch unit sales were down 14% from 2014. We take a closer look at the numbers, including Apple and Fitbit's recent earnings, to come to a few conclusions on what may be happening. 

Google added a bit of excitement to the news cycle yesterday afternoon by announcing a major reorganization. I have a few observations on the move, including two main takeaways on the new structure and what it may mean for Apple. We next shift over to a director's cut of my most recent Above Avalon post "Finding iPad's Future," including why the iPad has been bothering me the past few years. We conclude by going over interesting news from NPD saying that U.S. watch sales collapsed in June. A closer look may help reveal what is going on in the "wrist wearable" space. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple Music Family Membership Strength, Jimmy Iovine on Curation, Cable's Problem

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple Music Family Membership Strength - Eddy Cue's comments on Apple Music membership numbers suggest family plans will indeed be a leading factor giving the service life. 
  • Jimmy Iovine on Curation - When music streaming is a commodity, you need to offer something else if you want people to attach greater value to it. 
  • Cable's Problem - I'm increasingly starting to doubt people know what they want when thinking about the future of television. 

We kick things off with two stories on Apple Music. Apple released Apple Music subscriber numbers and while they are close to what we heard two weeks ago, there are are some interesting developments when looking at the number of family plans. We then go over Jimmy Iovine's comments about Apple Music, human curation, and where TV is going wrong. We conclude with a look at what I think is cable's biggest problem and what the record-breaking ratings from last week's Republican presidential primary debate told me about cable in 2015.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

iPhone Upgrade Cycle and Growth Estimate, Fitbit Earnings, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Calculating the iPhone Upgrade Cycle to Reach 2016 iPhone Growth  - We discuss the variables used to obtain the length of the iPhone upgrade cycle and then how to take this information to reach an iPhone growth estimate for 2016.
  • Fitbit Earnings - Observations and perspective on Fitbit's quarterly results and what it may mean for Apple and Apple Watch. 
  • Thursday Q&A - Each Thursday, I highlight a question or two from members. This week's question: "Can Apple's buyback program affect the stock price slide?"

We continue our series of stories taking a closer look at the iPhone business. Today, we calculate the length of the iPhone upgrade cycle and then use those calculations to reach our estimates for 2016 iPhone sales growth. Next, we shift over to Fitbit earnings. I consider the company to be an interesting peer to Apple that will be useful for analyzing when considering Apple Watch and Apple's interest in health and fitness. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and a question about AAPL share buyback and the impact on an AAPL price drop.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Thoughts on Apple's Stock Drop, Apple Buys Land in San Jose, A Few Apple Watch Musings

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Thoughts on Apple's Stock Drop - How I am thinking about Apple's recent stock price move.
  • Apple Buys Significant Amount of Land in San Jose - We compare this recent land purchase to Apple's existing building space, in addition to discussing Apple's overall real estate expansion plans.  
  • A Few Apple Watch Musings - Month three of my Apple Watch usage was interesting. 

I pushed back the next iPhone growth story until tomorrow. Instead, I had some comments on Apple's stock drop which seemed to enter a new gear this past Monday and yesterday. We next discuss two theories I have for why Apple just bought 43 acres of open land in San Jose. Needless to say, Apple may be thinking very big here. We conclude with a few musings I have on Apple Watch as I have been using the device for three months.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Estimating iPhone Model Mix, Where Apple Products are Sold, Nokia's Here Maps Sold to German Automakers

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Estimating the iPhone Model Mix - The next step in order to reach iPhone growth potential estimates for 2016 and 2017. 
  • Where Apple Products are Sold - A closer look at iPhone, iPad, and Mac U.S. sales broken out by retailer and where the Apple Watch may fit into the mix.
  • Nokia Here Sold to German Automakers - Digital maps data is held by a select few and owning the mapping data is not the most important piece to the puzzle.

Continuing our deep-dive into iPhone growth potential, today we will discuss the current iPhone model mix, taking a look at my estimates for how the user base breaks down according to iPhone models, including the change from September 2014 to June 2015. Next, we take a look at where Apple products are actually sold, which likely contains some surprises. We conclude with a few words on the German automakers winning the bidding process for Nokia's Here maps. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Calculating the Size of the iPhone User Base, Apple TV Crawling Towards Launch, Apple/BMW Follow-Up

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Calculating the Size of the Current iPhone User Base - We discuss the various data points used to derive my latest estimate for the number of iPhone users out in the wild. 
  • Apple TV Crawling Towards Launch - Nothing related to TV and video are guaranteed successes for Apple in this environment. 
  • Reuters on Apple/BMW - Reuters collaborates much of what we discussed last week that Apple wasn't just interested in the BMW i3 body, but instead more important things.

We begin today's email by going through the steps of calculating the size of the current iPhone user base, which serves as the foundation for addressing the topic of iPhone growth potential. Next, we discuss the BuzzFeed report about Apple TV being announced next month, and why my expectations surrounding Apple TV aren't too elevated. We conclude with a brief update on our Apple/BMW car discussion from last week, courtesy of Reuters.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

The Unknown Tablet Market, Elon Musk is Experimenting, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • The Unknown Tablet Market - Having a product category that is only five years old report a 7% decline in unit sales year-over-year makes Apple's future iPad plans that much more complicated. 
  • Elon Musk is Experimenting - A closer look at Tesla's referral program and what it may mean for electric car (and luxury) retail. 
  • Thursday Q&A (questions submitted by members) - What does the future for ESPN look like in a world where the cable bundle is on the decline? Do new media enterprises like Vine and Snapchat represent a threat to Apple's TV ambitions?

Kicking off today's email, we take a closer look at IDC's latest tablet market tracker. The iPad market's reduced visibility and lack of momentum have implications for Apple's future plans in the product category. We then shift over to news that Elon Musk is ready to experiment with how electric cars are sold in the U.S. We conclude with Thursday Q&A, with this week focused on media (ESPN, Vine, and Snapchat).

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

New Apple Watch Ads, Apple Music Subscriber Numbers, Motorola's New Phones

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

New Apple Watch Ads

Apple Music Subscriber Numbers

Motorola's New Phones

    We begin today's email by discussing Apple's latest Apple Watch ads where the focus is on apps. Next, we shift over to a new report saying that Apple has been going around sharing Apple Music subscriber data with the music industry. We conclude with a closer look at Motorola's latest smartphone lineup unveiled yesterday and a few takeaways when thinking of the larger smartphone space and impact on Apple.

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     

    Apple Music's Problem, Apple Watch Coming to Best Buy, I Saw My First Apple Watch in the Wild

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    • Apple Music's Problem - We take a closer look at iTunes Match, Apple Music, and what may be causing so many issues for some users. There may be factors outside of Apple's control at play.  
    • Apple Watch Coming to Best Buy - We discuss two much bigger Apple Watch stories at play with news that Best Buy will sell Apple Watch.  
    • I Saw My First Apple Watch in the Wild - It took 92 days, but I finally saw someone else wearing an Apple Watch. I had a few comments on the observation and what it says about the Watch. 

    In today's email, we tackle what may be causing most of the problems with Apple Music that has led some long-time fans to lose faith in the service so quickly. Next, we switch over to news that Best Buy will begin selling Apple Watch next week. We conclude with a few words on me seeing my first Apple Watch in the wild over the weekend and how I'm thinking about the next phase of Apple Watch marketing.

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     


    Why There's Nothing Quite Like iPhone, Apple Talked with BMW About Electric Cars

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    • Why There's Nothing Quite Like iPhone - We go over each of the 11 features highlighted in Apple's latest iPhone marketing webpage. 
    • Apple Talked with BMW About Electric Cars - There a few interesting tidbits/takeaways to think about when seeing the latest report saying Apple executives discussed electric cars with BMW. Why would Apple be interesting in the BMW i3? 

    We kick off today's email by talking about Apple's new webpage dedicated to the iPhone highlighting 11 reasons that make an iPhone an iPhone. I found it quite useful and informative to understand how Apple management looks at the iPhone's strengths. We also discuss the recent report saying Apple was in discussions with BMW about electric vehicles, including why Apple would be interested in the BMW's electric i series.

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     

    The Day After Apple Earnings on Wall Street, Washington Looking at Foreign Cash Tax Reform, Thursday Q&A

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    • The Day After Apple Earnings on Wall Street (subtopics include: China Slowdown?, Inventory Issues, Apple Watch Retail Locations, Management Tone)
    • Washington Looking at Foreign Cash Tax Reform
    • Thursday Q&A - What do I think about Apple opening only three Apple retail stores last quarter?

    We kick off today's email by discussing Apple sell-side analysts and a few additional points about Apple's earnings. We then shift to the topic of Washington taking on tax reform and how it may impact Apple's $181 billion of cash sitting offshore. We conclude with Thursday Q&A, which is focused on Apple opening up just three retail stores last quarter.

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     

    Apple 3Q15 Earnings

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    On a granular level, I picked out five sub-themes that I saw from Apple's 3Q15 earnings report and conference call (the full email is 3,000 words):

    • Big Picture
    • Stock Price Reaction
    • iPhone: Relatively Quiet (Which is Good)
    • Apple Watch: It's Very Early and Things Look Okay
    • iPad Sales Growth: Fact vs. Theory
    • Share Buyback: It's Slowing
    • Additional Earnings Call Notes

    Apple reported strong 3Q results due to sustained iPhone 6 and 6 Plus sales momentum throughout the world, especially in China, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. Revenue growth would have been 41% excluding FX impact, which is downright remarkable given Apple's size. Not only are larger screen iPhones resonating with consumers, but they continue to provide Apple with margin expansion and pricing power. The iPhone 6 Plus may end up impacting the smartphone landscape more than any other phone in the market. While Apple gave enough clues to reach Apple Watch sales of between 2-3 million units, it is simply too early to draw any long-term conclusions about the device's sales potential. 

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     


    Apple Car Development is Advancing, Judging Apple Watch Success/Failure

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    • Apple Car Development is Advancing
    • Judging Apple Watch Success/Failure

    For today's email, we will discuss the WSJ report indicating Apple continues to hire auto-related talent. The closer you look at these hires, the more convincing the evidence that Apple's automobile plans are indeed moving forward and are just as ambitious as I first thought. Next, we will discuss the article I published yesterday titled "Flops, Winners, and Outliers." I continue to think a lot about the Apple Watch and am ready to begin laying out the groundwork that my analysis is going to follow.

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

     
     
     
     

    The Wild Ride on Wall Street, Beme and the iPhone Ecosystem, Apple Music - A Few Thoughts Three Weeks In

    Today's Above Avalon stories: 

    • The Wild Ride on Wall Street - We take a closer look at what drove such strong price performance in not only GOOG and NFLX following earnings, but the entire tech landscape last week. Do last week's stock price moves shed any light on Apple's upcoming earnings report on Tuesday and possible Wall Street reaction?
    • Beme and the iPhone Ecosystem - There is much to think about with Casey Neistat's new company and app called Beme, which launched this past Friday. The app is increasingly shaping up to be a useful litmus test for the App Store and iPhone ecosystem. 
    • Apple Music - A Few Thoughts Three Weeks In - A quick update on how I am using Apple Music and what it may suggest about the music service.

    Today, we kick things off by circling back to the wild ride on Wall Street last week, including Google and Netflix's earnings. There are lessons included in each report that can be used to better understand how Wall Street looks at Apple earnings and how to think about post-earnings stock reactions. Next, we discuss Beme, one of the more high-profile iOS app launches in a while and how I am using the app as a litmus test for a number of different things dealing with the App Store and larger iPhone ecosystem. We conclude with a few words on my Apple Music usage three weeks in. 

    These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

    Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here.