Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage, iPhone Sales Estimate)

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 1)

  • Setting the Stage
  • iPhone Sales Estimate

Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to my iPhone unit sales estimate. We go over the methodology and data behind my estimate. Tomorrow's email will go over my iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates for 3Q17.

The full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Gauging Apple's Share Buyback Effectiveness, Netflix 2Q17 Earnings, Content's Value in Silicon Valley 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Gauging Apple's Share Buyback Effectiveness
  • Netflix 2Q17 Earnings
  • Content's Value in Silicon Valley

We kick off today's email by going deeper into the discussion found in this week's Above Avalon article ("Wall Street Has Begun to Think About Apple In a New Way"). We gauge how effective Apple's share buyback program has been since the company began buying back shares in FY2013. The email then turns to my thoughts and observations on Netflix's 2Q17 earnings. The discussion concludes with a closer look at a recent article by Benedict Evan about music and video content's value to Silicon Valley firms. After reading his article, it would be natural to scratch your head and ask why Apple is even bothering with its own original content. However, there is a reason for Apple's interest in the space not mentioned in Evan's post. We also go over a key aspect of the paid streaming market not mentioned in the article.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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WSJ Trashes Apple Design, Apple Appoints VP of China

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • WSJ Trashes Apple Design
  • Apple Appoints VP of China

We begin today's email by going over the WSJ's article comparing Samsung and Apple design. There were numerous issues found in the article. We break down the article to get a clearer understanding of how Samsung and Apple approach design very differently. The email then turns to news of Apple appointing Isabel Ge Mahe as VP and managing director of Greater China. I have four observations about the announcement.  

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Amazon Working on Better Echo Speakers, Smart Speaker Innovation, Estimating Amazon Echo Sales

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Amazon Working on Better Echo Speakers
  • Smart Speaker Innovation
  • Estimating Amazon Echo Sales

We kick off today's email by going over the recent Engadget report regarding Amazon working on a new Echo device with a better design and speaker system. We use the report to dive into a deeper discussion about innovation in the smart speaker space. The discussion covers my current position on a number items regarding stationary smart speakers and microphones, voice interfaces, and where wearables enter the discussion. The email concludes with my estimate of how many Echo devices Amazon is selling. We go over my methodology and the thought process behind my sales estimate. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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New iPhone Production Delay Rumors Build, Production Rumors Hint at New iPhone Pricing

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • New iPhone Production Delay Rumors Build
  • Production Rumors Hint at New iPhone Pricing

We kick off today's email by going over the latest rumors pertaining to new iPhone production delays. All three new iPhone models are now reportedly delayed to a certain extent. We connect the dots regarding these latest rumors, which provides us three key takeaways. The email then turns to a report from The Korea Herald detailing Apple propping up a few of its suppliers for the new OLED iPhone (iPhone X). We go over my thoughts on the report and the clues hidden in the report that hint at OLED iPhone pricing.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Deep Dive into 2Q17 Mac and PC Sales, Additional Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Deep Dive into 2Q17 Mac and PC Sales
  • Additional Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing
  • Thursday Q&A

We kick off today's email with my thoughts on IDC's and Gartner's 2Q17 PC shipment data. We then take a closer look at their Mac shipment projections and how they compare with my expectations. We also look at Michael Dell's odd comments about PC trends. The discussion then turns to my previous iPhone pricing projections. Specifically, we discuss what may happen at the lower end of the iPhone pricing spectrum. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members: 

  • What do I think of Gene Munster's five-year model for Apple?
  • How far out does my Apple earnings model go?
  • What do I think could happen to Apple from a performance perspective over the medium term?
  • What will happen if Tesla sees disappointing Model 3 demand?
  • Why don't other Apple analysts buy the same reports out of Foxconn as Ming-Chi Kuo?

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Panic at Apple Ahead of OLED iPhone, Apple Losing Video Market Share, Jawbone to Liquidate

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Panic at Apple Ahead of OLED iPhone
  • Apple Losing Video Market Share
  • Jawbone to Liquidate

We kick off today's email by going over Fast Company's report of there being "panic" at Apple as they try to finalize the OLED iPhone. We break apart the report to connect the dots. The discussion then turns to the WSJ article on Apple losing its competitive positioning in the movie rental and download space. We take a look at the factors driving the change and why Apple is losing positioning. The email concludes with my thoughts on how Jawbone entering liquidation marks the beginning of the end for dedicated health and fitness trackers.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing and Naming

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing and Naming

We kick off today's email by going over my thoughts and observations on how Apple may price its new iPhones in September. Apple is expected to unveil three new iPhones (OLED, 4.7-inch, and 5.5-inch). We discuss John Gruber's piece over at Daring Fireball making the case for a $1,200 to $1,400 new OLED iPhone. The discussion then turns to how I have trouble seeing Apple using such a pricing strategy for the OLED iPhone. We go over my different view of iPhone pricing. We then go over my naming projections for Apple's iPhone line later this year. The current iPhone nomenclature is getting stale. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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App Store 2.0, Apple Betting Big on Editorial Curation, Turning the App Store into Something Bigger

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • App Store 2.0
  • Apple Betting Big on Editorial Curation
  • Turning the App Store into Something Bigger

We kick off today's email by taking a deep dive into the redesigned App Store. The changes are significant enough to refer to the new App Store as App Store 2.0. In particular, we focus on the motivation and strategy behind the changes. The discussion then turns to Apple's big bet on editorial curation in the App Store and how it may impact users/developers. The email concludes with the broader implications found with the redesigned App Store. We look at growing competition for apps from Facebook, Google, Tencent, and Amazon. In addition, we go over Apple's ultimate goal with the redesigned App Store considering management's broader view on apps and content.  

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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My Ming-Chi Kuo Theory, Tesla Sales Update

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • My Ming-Chi Kuo Theory
  • Tesla Sales Update

We kick off today's email by discussing my theory as to how Ming-Chi Kuo (Apple analyst at KGI Securities) has so much information on unannounced Apple products. We go over Kuo's past and all of my observations resulting from years of watching Kuo publish Apple rumors. We also go over the best way of treating Kuo rumors - by Apple product. The email then turns to Tesla. The company provided a vehicle sales update. We go over the numbers and look at Elon Musk's recent comments about Model 3 production. The discussion concludes with my latest views on Tesla and the Model 3. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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New iPhone Expected to Include Facial Recognition, The Odd Touch ID Story

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • New iPhone Expected to Include Facial Recognition
  • The Odd Touch ID Story

We kick off today’s email with a closer look at reports suggesting Apple will include facial recognition in lieu of Touch ID on the new OLED iPhone. We go over my thoughts and observations about the reports and the possibility of iPhone lacking Touch ID. The email then turns to a discussion of the various reasons the Touch ID story is so odd. There are a few moving parts to the Touch ID story, and we attempt to connect the dots regarding Apple’s ultimate plans with the OLED iPhone.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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How the iPhone Changed Apple, Jony Ive Speaks at Norman Foster Forum, Apple Is a Toolmaker

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • How the iPhone Changed Apple
  • Jony Ive Speaks at Norman Foster Forum
  • Apple Is a Toolmaker

We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion found in my latest weekly article, "iPhone Turns Ten." In particular, we focus on how the iPhone fits within Apple's broader product mission. We look at how the iPhone ends up defining three different product eras at Apple. The email then turns to my thoughts on Jony Ive's latest onstage interview at the Norman Foster Foundation Forum. We go over my notes from his talk and then take a deep dive into one of his answers. Jony considers Apple's existence as being driven by being a toolmaker for people. We look at the similarities and differences between this mission and that of Amazon. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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The iPad Debate Rages On, iPads Don't Replace Laptops, iOS Doesn't Replace macOS

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • The iPad Debate Rages On
  • iPads Don't Replace Laptops
  • iOS Doesn't Replace macOS

We kick off today's email by discussing the ongoing iPad versus laptop debate. Does an iPad Pro replace a laptop? We look at the discussion from the perspective of what the iPad is designed to do in relation to PCs (laptops and desktops). The discussion then moves beyond form factors to compare iOS to macOS and assess the pros and cons found with each platform. We then discuss Apple's motivation behind iOS 11 refinements for iPad and accessories like the Smart Keyboard. The email concludes with how iOS and macOS will address computing workflows in the future.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple ARKit Ahead of Curve, Apple Shipping iPhones Made in India, Pearl Automation Shuts Down

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Apple ARKit Ahead of Curve
  • Apple Shipping iPhones Made in India
  • Pearl Automation Shuts Down

We kick off today's email by discussing how Apple's ARKit is ahead of the curve when it comes to bringing AR to the masses. The discussion includes a look at how the major debate in the smartphone industry is moving away from being about market share versus profit share. The email then turns to news of Apple shipping iPhones assembled in India. We go over four observations regarding Apple's prospects in India. The email concludes with my thoughts on Pearl Automation shutting down. Pearl was a three-year-old start-up in the auto industry founded by former Apple employees. The company was intriguing due to its goal of recreating the Apple Way outside of Apple. We look at Pearl's strategy to be like Apple and the company's fundamental problems. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple Has Not Partnered with Hertz, Alphabet Partners with Avis, Apple Acquires SensoMotoric Instruments

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Apple Has Not Partnered with Hertz
  • Alphabet Partners with Avis
  • Apple Acquires SensoMotoric Instruments

We kick off today's email by discussing Bloomberg's latest report of Apple working with Hertz to manage a self-driving car fleet. There are conflicting accounts as to the Apple/Hertz relationship. The discussion then turns to Alphabet's Waymo subsidiary partnering with Avis. After quickly discussing the business model behind a car rental company, we look at how the Alphabet/Avis partnership may begin to show the possibility of a new kind of business model emerging in the self-driving car space. We then look at why Apple is likely leasing rather than buying cars for testing autonomous systems in California. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple acquiring SensoMotoric Instruments, a specialist in eye-tracking technology.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here.