Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued), Apple Watch and Redefining Watches, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued)

  • Apple Watch and Redefining Watches 

  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Connecting the Apple Dots." In particular, we discuss the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products and my installed base projections. We then discuss Apple Watch Series 4 and my theory that one’s existing view of watches plays a major role in how the Apple Watch is perceived. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Who is buying the iPhone XS at $999 when you can buy an iPhone XR for $250 less?

  • Why is the iPhone XR larger than the iPhone XS in terms of screen size?

  • Do I think Apple is targeting the XR for the most sales, with extra profit margin in the XS and XS Max?

  • What are my predictions for marquee features / design updates for next year’s Apple Watch and iPhone?

  • Was there anything announced at Apple’s product event that made you want to change your Apple sales estimates?

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Odd iPhone XS Reviews, iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews, iPhone Upgraders

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Odd iPhone XS Reviews

  • iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews

  • iPhone Upgraders

We kick things off by going over my thoughts on iPhone XS reviews. The discussion then turns to the iPhone camera’s oversized impact on the review environment. The email concludes by revisiting my financial estimates regarding iPhone upgrading.

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Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post, Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List, Sonos Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post

  • Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List

  • Sonos Earnings

We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Jony’s interview with The Washington Post’s Christina Passariello. The discussion then turns to a number of Apple products being removed from the U.S. tariffs list. We conclude with a look at Sonos earnings.

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Apple Event Review: Full Notes

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple event review. We go over my full notes from attending Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater. We cover 38 different topics.

This past Thursday’s email was focused on the major themes and takeaways from the event (available here).

My full Apple product event review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple Event Review: Major Themes and Takeaways

Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over the major themes and takeaways from Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater.

Major themes and takeaways:

  • Presentation Observations 

  • An Apple Watch Inflection Point

  • iPhone Xr Intrigue

  • Improved iPhone Value Proposition 

  • Thoughts on iPhone Sales Mix

The second half of my review (full notes) is available here.

My full Apple product event review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple’s M&A Philosophy, A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?, The Large iPhone Screen Narrative

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s M&A Philosophy

  • A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?

  • The Large iPhone Screen Narrative

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Poaching Tesla." In particular, we discuss Apple’s M&A philosophy. The discussion then turns to what I think is a controlled leak from Apple regarding the new iPhones and the broader narrative regarding Apple’s embrace of large screen smartphones.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs, Apple's Tariffs Risk, Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs
  • Apple's Tariffs Risk
  • Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings

Today's email is dedicated to discussing the U.S. proposal to impose a 25% duty on a number of Apple products imported from China. The email includes my estimates for the financial impact tariffs may have on Apple. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Dyson’s Electric Car Plans Move Forward, Fingerprint on Display as a Differentiator?, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Dyson’s Electric Car Plans Move Forward
  • Fingerprint on Display as a Differentiator?
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Dyson working on electric vehicles. We then discuss the idea that fingerprint on display (FOD) technology will represent a differentiator in the smartphone industry. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Do I think demand for the large 6.5-inch iPhone is underestimated? Is there a good reason it can’t be the second-best selling iPhone?
  • Could it make sense for Apple to encourage customers to subscribe to an iPhone?
  • How does sudden AAPL price appreciation impact the company’s buyback? Logistically, how does Apple buy back shares?
  • Do I read anything into Tim Cook selling half of his shares recently granted? What performance metrics does Apple need to hit in order for Tim Cook’s bonuses to be fully granted?
  • Which vendors are candidates to work with Apple on a car?

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Samsung to Unveil Foldable Smartphone, Amazon Crosses Trillion Dollar Market Cap, The Difference Between Apple and Amazon

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Samsung to Unveil Foldable Smartphone

  • Amazon Crosses Trillion Dollar Market Cap

  • The Difference Between Apple and Amazon

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Samsung announcing it will unveil a foldable smartphone. The discussion then turns to Amazon reaching a trillion dollar market capitalization. We look at Amazon's stock price move, in addition to Apple's share price movement, in context of the broader market. The email concludes with a closer look at Forbes' exclusive interview with Jeff Bezos and the difference between Apple and Amazon. 

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

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  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Previewing Apple's Product Event, 3Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Previewing Apple's Product Event
  • 3Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates

We kick off today's email with my expectations heading into Apple's big event next week. The discussion includes my revised pricing expectations for Apple's new flagship iPhones. We also go over my thoughts on iPhone nomenclature. The discussion then turns to Apple Watch. After going over my expectations for next week, we turn to my revised estimates for the size of the Apple Watch installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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3Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates, The Changing Face of iPhone Sales, Apple Acquires Akonia Holographics

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 3Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates
  • The Changing Face of iPhone Sales
  • Apple Acquires Akonia Holographics

I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPad installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018. The discussion then goes over my thoughts on how the composition of iPhone sales continues to change. The email concludes with news of Apple acquiring Akonia Holographics.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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3Q18 iPhone Installed and User Base Estimates, Thinking About iPhone Upgraders, Bose Unveils New Stationary Speakers  

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 3Q18 iPhone Installed and User Base Estimates
  • Thinking About iPhone Upgraders
  • Bose Unveils New Stationary Speakers  

I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018. The discussion also includes my thoughts on iPhone upgraders. The email concludes with Bose unveiling new stationary smart speakers. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Toyota Partners with Uber, A Key Value Driving Project Titan, Apple Pushing Paid iCloud Storage

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Toyota Partners with Uber
  • A Key Value Driving Project Titan
  • Apple Pushing Paid iCloud Storage

We kick off today's email in the car space. The discussion begins with Toyota partnering with Uber on self-driving cars. We then turn to a key value that is powering Project Titan and Apple's interest in transportation. The email concludes with a look at Apple pushing paid iCloud storage subscriptions and where I think Apple's paid iCloud storage options are headed. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Netflix Testing Ways to Bypass iTunes Billing, Impact on Apple Services Revenue, Tesla to Remain Public

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Netflix Testing Ways to Bypass iTunes Billing
  • Impact on Apple Services Revenue
  • Tesla to Remain Public

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Netflix looking to bypass in-app purchases on iOS and iTunes billing. The discussion includes stress test scenarios to gauge the potential impact Netflix would have on Apple revenue by bypassing iTunes billing. We conclude with Elon Musk deciding Tesla is better off as a public company.  

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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The Rise of iPhone X Copycats, Apple vs. Samsung Design Bets, Tencent Struggles

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The Rise of iPhone X Copycats
  • Apple vs. Samsung Design Bets
  • Tencent Struggles

We kick off today's email with my thoughts on the growing number of iPhone X copycats in the market. The discussion then turns to how Apple and Samsung are placing increasingly different design bets when it comes to smartphones and smartwatches. The email concludes with a look at Tencent's recent struggles. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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