Above Avalon Episode 77: Let's Talk iPhone 7

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AirPods (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 76: AirPods

September 16, 2016 by Neil Cybart

I am back from San Francisco. In episode 76, we discuss the most intriguing new product to be unveiled at Apple's keynote. AirPods are not just a pair of bluetooth headphones or an iPhone accessory. Instead, AirPods represent Apple's second wearables platform. After going over my experience using AirPods, we dive into the strategy behind the product. We discuss how Apple will likely expand AirPods into a platform as they did with Apple Watch. The discussion then turns to my view on the upcoming Apple Experience era and where AirPods fit into Apple's future product portfolio. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

WWDC Clues Hint at Apple's Post-iPhone Era

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch (Above Avalon member daily update)

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The Apple Services Myth (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 75: The Apple Services Myth

September 02, 2016 by Neil Cybart

The narrative surrounding Apple Services has taken on a life of its own. In episode 75, we dispel the myth that Apple is becoming a services company. After discussing how this myth began, we take a closer look at the actual story involving Apple services. The episode then covers Apple's long-standing goals for services and why Apple will end up doubling down on hardware in order to grow its services business. Additional topics include the logic behind Apple getting involved with music and video, "Apple as a service," and Project Titan's potential involvement with services down the road. To become an Above Avalon member, visit: AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative

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Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 74: Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy

August 26, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 74 is dedicated to discussing how Jony's power and control within Apple is increasingly making people uncomfortable with the company's direction. Apple has doubled down on its design-led philosophy. We go over the history of why Steve Jobs gave power to Apple's industrial designers and why this is now leading to Apple receiving a growing amount of criticism from some of its most loyal users. We then take a closer look at Apple's product line to see how some of the most widely-held points of criticism ultimately lead back to Jony. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 6: Jony Ive

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 45: People Love Accessories

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 54: Tim Cook's Legacy

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Apple Watch Is Already a $10 Billion Business

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Above Avalon Episode 73: The Art of Simplicity

August 12, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple Watch and Apple Music shared something in common with each other in the beginning. They lacked simplicity. After going over the definition of simplicity, we dissect where Apple Watch and Apple Music lack simplicity and what I suspect contributed to this situation. We then look at Apple's WWDC keynote this past June to see how Apple plans on addressing this lack of simplicity. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The Art of Simplicity

Apple Uses Good Design to Marginalize Industries

Above Avalon Episode 38: Good Design Changes the World

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The iPad's Dark Days Are Over

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Above Avalon Episode 72: Let's Talk iPad

August 05, 2016 by Neil Cybart

The iPad has turned the corner. In episode 72, we take a look at the iPad business and the factors that give me confidence that fundamental elements of the business are beginning to improve. The episode begins with an overview of the iPad's early days and vast promise. This is followed by a discussion of why the iPad mini marked a turning point that kicked off the product's dark days. After going over the iPad's problems in recent years, we discuss the three reasons that give me confidence the iPad is moving to a point of stabilization. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Thoughts on iPad

Finding iPad's Future

Peak iPad Mini

Daily Updates for Above Avalon Members

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Above Avalon Episode 70: The Wall Street Expectations Game

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Above Avalon Episode 71: Apple's Earnings Surprise

July 30, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In this special edition episode, we discuss the primary theme from Apple's 3Q16 earnings. Even though Apple reported its weakest quarter in 15 years, AAPL shares increased as the company beat Wall Street expectations. Upon closer examination, it would appear that this expectations surprise had more to do with near-term results than 2017 trends. We then look at the iPhone business with a focus on the company's channel inventory drawdown and 4Q revenue guidance to reach a deeper understanding of how Apple management may be navigating Wall Street's expectations. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Warning Signs

Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Major Themes

Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Details

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The Great Apple Expectations Reset

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Above Avalon Episode 70: The Wall Street Expectations Game

July 22, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 70 takes a closer look at how expectations guide Wall Street. We discuss AAPL's transformation from a growth stock to a value stock, focusing on the contributing factors that led to the reset. We then discuss the framework underpinning Wall Street's expectations game and how management teams have a better chance at succeeding in the game. We conclude with implications resulting from Apple becoming a value stock. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative

Above Avalon Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

Examining Apple's Dividend Strategy

Daily Updates for Above Avalon Members

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Above Avalon Episode 69: Apple's Music Ambitions

July 15, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple's ambition in music continues to be misunderstood. In episode 69, we look at Apple's overall plan to own the entire music industry. We begin with a brief history of Apple's involvement in music over the past 15 years in order to understand management's current motivation. The episode then goes over the four steps required to grab mindshare in the music industry in order to eventually be in a position of power. Apple will look to leverage its balance sheet to capture music streaming revenue share. We then discuss some of the headwinds and risks Apple faces with music, and this is followed by a brief discussion of why Apple is so interested in music in the first place. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple's Plan to Own the Entire Music Industry - Above Avalon

Why Apple Even Bothers with Music, Spotify Is Moving the Goalposts - Above Avalon (daily update sent to Above Avalon members)

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 68: The $10 Billion Apple Watch

July 01, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In episode 68, we take a closer look at the Apple Watch business. After going over my estimates for Apple Watch revenue and unit sales since launch in April 2015, we discuss how much the Apple Watch business would currently be worth if it were a stand-alone company. It turns out that the Apple Watch is actually a paradox. Expectations seemed to fall off a cliff heading into WWDC despite several positive signs. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Watch Is Already a $10 Billion Business - Above Avalon

Apple Watch's Future Will Include Smart Watch Bands - Above Avalon

The Apple Watch Paradox, Math and Logic Behind My $10B Apple Watch Valuation - Above Avalon (daily update sent to Above Avalon members)

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

June 24, 2016 by Neil Cybart

This week's episode is focused on what will come after the iPhone. Using clues found throughout Apple's WWDC keynote, we discuss what this post-iPhone product era will look like and its driving forces. This new Apple Experience era will be a new chapter for Apple in which consumers are given the option to personalize their computing experience like never before. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

WWDC Clues Hint at Apple's Post-iPhone Era - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 66 - "Back from WWDC" - Above Avalon

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 44 - "The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products" - Above Avalon

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 66: Back from WWDC

June 17, 2016 by Neil Cybart

I am back from San Francisco, and Episode 66 is dedicated to Apple's WWDC keynote. We discuss the five most interesting items from the keynote that are still at the top of my mind days after the event. These five items are a mix of new features, products, and ideas that help to show where Apple is headed in terms of both software and hardware. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 58 - "Apple Watch's Future" - Above Avalon

Apple Watch's Future Will Include Smart Watch Bands - Above Avalon

Apple's "New Beginnings" Video from WWDC - YouTube

WWDC 2016: Major Themes - Above Avalon (for members)

WWDC 2016: Detailed Thoughts and Observations - Above Avalon (for members)

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 65: Getting Ready for WWDC

June 10, 2016 by Neil Cybart

As I get ready to fly out to San Francisco to attend Apple's WWDC keynote, this episode begins with a quick business update about Above Avalon and my recent first year anniversary of launching Above Avalon memberships. We then move to WWDC and an unusual kind of preview. We go over the backdrop of this year's developer conference and compare things to last year's conference. The episode concludes with a look at why many peers no longer envy Apple's business model and what it may mean for Apple's software and service ambitions. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Is Officially Sustainable - Above Avalon

No One Wants to Be Apple - Above Avalon

iPhone Warning Signs - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 64: A New Apple M&A Phase

June 03, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In this episode, we take a closer look at how Apple's M&A strategy is evolving. After analyzing 19 years of Apple M&A transactions, a number of patterns become visible. Apple M&A is closely related to Apple's functional organizational structure as both place the product above all else. We then discuss why Apple's $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing should be compared to M&A and how the Didi deal marks the beginning of a new M&A phase. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple M&A Is Entering a New Phase - Above Avalon

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 63: Speed Dating Didi

May 20, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple's $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing is an important deal, marking the beginning of the company's official pivot into transportation. In this episode, we go over Didi's ridesharing business and the three primary reasons Apple decided to buy a stake in Didi. This is an unusual deal for Apple, indicative of significant change ahead for the company. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Invests in Didi Chuxing (Above Avalon member update) - Above Avalon

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 62: Apple Is Going to Pivot

May 13, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple is projected to report more than $10 billion of research and development expense in 2016. Unlike most of its tech peers, Apple remains very quiet about future plans. However, upon closer examination, there is only one explanation as to what Apple has in store with its R&D and the future: a pivot into personal transportation. In this episode, we take a closer look at why other explantations for rising R&D expense don't mesh with Apple, how Apple can actually pivot into new industries, and why Project Titan is not like any other R&D project. Project Titan is something different. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming - Above Avalon

iPhone Warning Signs - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 60: The Car's "iPhone" Moment - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 27: Thinking About Cars - Above Avalon

Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 61: iPhone Warning Signs

May 06, 2016 by Neil Cybart

With Apple's 2Q16 earnings in the rearview mirror, we focus on the iPhone business and what appears to be a number of warning signs regarding growth and profitability. The iPhone business is slowing, and it appears that Apple management is still trying to get ahead of a deteriorating demand environment. In this episode, we discuss what is going on with the iPhone and the various warning signs beginning to appear. We then turn to the things to look out for when thinking about the path forward for iPhone and end with a big picture takeaway on where things stand in Apple's grand iPhone plan. Even though the iPhone business isn't imploding, it is time to become more skeptical about the iPhone's growth story. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Warning Signs - Above Avalon

iPhone SE Is Apple's $30 Billion Bet on 4-Inch Screens - Above Avalon

The Changing iPhone User Base - Above Avalon

The Pixar iPhone - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 60: The Car's "iPhone" Moment

April 22, 2016 by Neil Cybart

This episode is focused on rethinking the car. We begin by looking at how Apple positioned the iPhone to change our perception of the phone. This helps us discover what will be the auto industry's "iPhone" moment, or idea that leads us to think about the car differently. After discussing electric cars, autonomous driving and smart dashboards, we go over why rethinking the car seat ends up being the secret to rethinking the car. If we begin to think of a car as a personalized room on wheels instead of simply a box on wheels, our definition of a car will change. We conclude by looking at the competitive landscape to see who is best positioned to capitalize on this transformation. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 27: Thinking About Cars - Above Avalon

The Car's "iPhone" Moment - Above Avalon

Marc Newson's website - Link

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Episode 59: Apple Dividends

April 15, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 59 is dedicated to Apple's dividend. In two weeks, Apple's board will authorize an increase in the quarterly cash dividend. We take a comprehensive look at Apple's quarterly cash dividend, including growth trends and forward trajectories. The episode goes over some of the background regarding Apple paying a cash dividend, how share buyback impacts dividends paid to shareholders, and how tracking Apple's dividend strategy can provide clues as to how management is thinking about future prospects. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Examining Apple's Dividend Strategy - Above Avalon

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon (weekly articles)

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Neil Cybart

Above Avalon (daily updates for members)

Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 58: Apple Watch's Future

April 08, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple will celebrate Apple Watch's one-year anniversary later this month. In this episode, we look at Apple Watch's first year, including the ups and downs. We then look forward to where the Apple Watch is likely headed from a product perspective. The focus should be placed on Watch bands and not watch cases. After going over my Wrist Real Estate theory, we look at ways that Apple can better utilize our wrists to push the wearable category forward. With Watch bands still on our minds, we look at what will likely be Apple Watch's financial drivers in the future. The episode concludes with brief words on Apple Watch development paths. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 53: Learning from Tesla - Above Avalon

Apple Watch's Future Will Include Smart Watch Bands - Above Avalon

Apple Watch band data - Wristly

Apple Watch modular band patent - U.S. Patent & Trademark Office

New Apple Watch Hermès bands - iMore

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