Above Avalon Episode 117: Lots of Questions

January 12, 2018 by Neil Cybart

January is a great time to embrace the unknown found with a new year. Episode 117 is focused on going over my list of questions for Apple in 2018. We cover more than 60 questions on subjects that range from Apple's major product categories to various managerial and organizational topics. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Questions for 2018 (weekly article)

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Above Avalon Episode 116: Grading Apple's 2017

January 05, 2018 by Neil Cybart

Episode 116 is dedicated to reviewing Apple's performance in 2017. After briefly discussing my methodology for grading Apple, we discuss the various milestones and issues that impacted the company in 2017. My grading process is broken into seven categories (iPad, Apple Watch, iPhone, Mac, Accessories, Services, Financial Strategy). The episode concludes with my overall grade for Apple in 2017 and a few closing thoughts on what turned out to be a very busy year for management. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Grading Apple's 2017 (weekly article)

Apple Publishes Message About iPhone Throttling (member email)

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Above Avalon Episode 115: Betting on Hardware

December 23, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Apple isn't a hardware company. Nevertheless, hardware's importance to Apple continues to grow. Episode 115 is dedicated to discussing Apple's growing bet on hardware. The episode begins by going over Apple's hardware strategy and includes a brief history of Apple's approach to hardware. The discussion then turns to Apple's hardware scale as we go over the company's overall product sales. We conclude with how Apple is doubling down on hardware in order to become the most powerful software provider in the wearables era. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple's Growing Bet on Hardware (weekly article)

Above Avalon Podcast archive

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Above Avalon Episode 114: The End to Apple's Cash Dilemma

December 16, 2017 by Neil Cybart

The probability of a U.S. corporate tax overhaul has never been higher. Episode 114 is dedicated to discussing how upcoming changes to the U.S. corporate tax code will impact Apple. We begin by going over Apple's current cash dilemma. The discussion then turns to the two significant changes that will take place with Apple's cash and balance sheet strategy assuming the U.S. corporate tax code is overhauled. The rest of the episode is dedicated to talking about Apple's excess cash and the options to spend the excess cash that Apple faces. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The End to Apple's Cash Dilemma (weekly article)

Apple's Stock Buyback Program Primer (Above Avalon member exclusive analysis)

Probability of Apple Launching a Tender Offer (Above Avalon member exclusive analysis)

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Above Avalon Episode 113: It's a Smart Speaker Mirage

December 01, 2017 by Neil Cybart

We are in the midst of a massive mindshare bubble involving stationary smart speakers in the home. Episode 113 is dedicated to discussing stationary smart speakers powered by digital voice assistants. After going over my Amazon Echo sales estimate, we look at why certain companies are placing big bets on stationary smart speakers and why there are already signs that the rosy and optimistic narrative facing the product category is off. The discussion then turns to the three distinct possibilities as to the stationary smart speaker's future. We end with how smart speakers ultimately end up competing with wearables. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

A Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage (weekly article)

TechCrunch's initial take on Amazon Echo from 2014

Estimating Amazon Echo sales (member email)

Apple Watch adoption math (member email)

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Above Avalon Episode 112: The Art of Disclosure

November 17, 2017 by Neil Cybart

The fourth season of the Above Avalon Podcast kicks off with a discussion focused on Apple Watch sales disclosure. We take a closer look at the debate surrounding disclosure to see how Apple now stands to benefit more from disclosing Apple Watch sales than from keeping them hidden. The discussion goes over the four major changes that have swung the disclosure debate in favor of Apple providing Apple Watch data. We look at one possible path that Apple can use going forward to disclose Apple Watch sales on a quarterly basis. The episode concludes with a broader look at financial disclosure at public companies and how Apple manages its financial disclosure strategy. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

It's Time for Apple to Disclose Apple Watch Sales (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 102: Apple Cash Influence (podcast)

Apple Watch Installed Base and User Base Estimates (member email)

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Above Avalon Episode 111: Let's Talk iPhone X

November 03, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Apple was faced with a choice: Stick with the familiar and milk the iPhone business for all it’s worth, or throw familiarity out the window to pave a new iPhone journey for the next 10 years. Apple chose the latter, and iPhone X is the byproduct. Episode 111 is dedicated to discussing iPhone X. We begin by going over Apple's motivation behind iPhone X. The discussion then turns to my initial impressions and thoughts from using the device. We go over Apple's strategy regarding iPhone X reviews and conclude with Apple's ultimate goal with iPhone X. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone X (weekly article)

iPhone X Initial Impressions (video)

Apple 4Q17 Earnings Review (email for Above Avalon members)

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Above Avalon Episode 110: A Double Standard

October 28, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Apple is a Silicon Valley and Wall Street leader with a bull's-eye on its back, and rightly so. Leaders should be held to a higher standard. Episode 110 is dedicated to discussing how Apple is being held not only to a higher standard, but also to a double standard. We begin by going over what it means for Apple to face a double standard. The discussion then goes over examples of how companies not named Apple are being graded on a curve. After looking at how Apple's double standard impacts the company's Apple Watch and China narratives in the press, we go over my three theories for why a double standard is being applied to Apple. The episode concludes with a few solutions for removing this double standard. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Is Facing a Double Standard (weekly article)

Apple 4Q17 Earnings Preview (email for Above Avalon members)

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Above Avalon Episode 109: Apple's Grand Vision

October 20, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Apple's product strategy has been receiving more attention lately as voice-first and AI-first become buzzwords in Silicon Valley. Episode 109 is dedicated to discussing the vision behind Apple's product strategy. We begin by analyzing Apple's current product strategy and how the company's four major product categories are connected to each other. The discussion then turns to Apple's shifting product priorities. This brings us to Apple's grand vision and how there is a role for design to play in entirely new industries. After discussing issues and roadblocks Apple has faced following its grand vision, we conclude with how HomePod marketing sheds light on Apple's inevitable product path. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple's Grand Vision (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 103 - Apple Glasses Are Inevitable (podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 95 - A Mac Headache (podcast)

Estimating the iPhone Installed Base and User Base (daily email for members)

Apple Watch Installed Base and User Base Estimates (daily email for members)

iPad Installed Base and User Base Estimates (daily email for members)

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Above Avalon Episode 108: iPhone Courage

October 06, 2017 by Neil Cybart

The amount of risk Apple is taking with iPhone X should not be underestimated. Episode 108 takes a closer look at how Apple is displaying courage by not letting fear of change and customer rejection dictate iPhone design decisions. The discussion begins with my iPhone X impressions. We then go over how the iPhone X fits within Apple's overall iPhone strategy. We go over examples of how Apple has displayed courage with iPhone in the past and why design has such a large impact on iPhone's future. The episode concludes by comparing Apple's approach to design with Samsung's approach. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Courage (weekly article)

Estimating the iPhone Installed Base and User Base (daily email for members)

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Above Avalon Episode 107: Back from Apple Park

September 22, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Episode 107 is dedicated to discussing Steve Jobs Theater. We begin with my impressions from attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. The discussion then turns to how Steve Jobs Theater is an Apple product, and a closer look at the building uncovers a side to Apple that few have seen before. We go over additional items that stood out to me about the theater and Apple Park, including why the most crucial takeaway ends up being about Jony Ive. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The Significance Behind Steve Jobs Theater (weekly article)

The Jony Ive Promotion (weekly article)

Project Titan Buildings Revealed / Map of Buildings (daily email for members)

Apple Event Review (daily email for members)

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Above Avalon Episode 106: Getting Ready for Steve Jobs Theater

September 08, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Apple's largest product event in years is just a few days away. In episode 106, we look at the big picture ahead of the inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. We begin by going over the top three trends taking place in the smartphone market. The discussion then turns to the major themes in the wearables market, followed by TV, and then the home. The goal is to set the stage for Apple's upcoming product announcements. I will be attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. My full thoughts and observations on the event will be sent exclusively to Above Avalon members. To receive this analysis and perspective, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership. Members also receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails.

Show Notes:

Major Tech Trends Ahead of Apple's Big Event (weekly article)

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Above Avalon Episode 105: Apple in China

September 01, 2017 by Neil Cybart

In episode 105, we focus on Apple's business in China in an effort to answer whether the country represents more of an opportunity or risk for Apple. The discussion begins by going over some of the numbers, including those that show Apple's volatile performance in China. We then look at the major trends unfolding in the smartphone market in China, which leads to a deep dive into the major issues impacting Apple in China. After going over the WeChat versus Apple debate, we discuss the various positive signs reappearing in Apple's Greater China operating segment. The episode concludes with a look at some strategy adjustments Apple can make in order to leverage the most opportunity from China. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple in China (weekly article)

Kantar Worldpanel (iPhone sales share data)

Apple's China Problem (Stratechery)

Why Apple Is Losing Its Shine in China (Wired)

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Above Avalon Episode 104: Obscene Amounts of Cash

August 18, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Episode 104 is dedicated to discussing how Apple's business model predisposes the company to cash generation unlike that of any other firm in Silicon Valley. The discussion begins by comparing Apple's financials to those of the leading consumer-facing technology companies. We then take a closer look at Apple's business model to see just how the company is able to generate so much free cash flow. The stationary speaker market is used as an example to demonstrate how Apple plans on making money differently than others in the space. We conclude by going over questions regarding Apple's cash machine in the future. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Has the Best Business Model for Generating Cash (weekly article)

Episode 102: Apple Cash Influence (podcast)

Episode 99: HomePod (podcast)

Episode 103: Apple Glasses Are Inevitable (podcast)

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Review (daily email for members)

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Above Avalon Episode 103: Apple Glasses Are Inevitable

July 28, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Episode 103 marks the introduction of a brand new topic to the Above Avalon podcast: augmented reality glasses. All of the pieces are coming together for Apple to sell glasses. We begin the episode with the reason why now is the time to talk about Apple Glasses. The discussion then turns to the seven reasons why Apple Glasses are inevitable. This sets the scene for the big picture (a deep dive into glasses as a device, Apple's evolving thought process about glasses, and an overview of how Apple would actually sell AR glasses). Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Glasses Are Inevitable (weekly article)

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (daily email for members)

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Above Avalon Episode 102: Apple Cash Influence

July 21, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Episode 102 has a financial tone as we discuss how Wall Street is thinking about Apple in a new way. After breaking up the last five years of Apple stock performance into four eras, we go over my theory on why Wall Street now looks at Apple's excess cash as the most influential factor impacting the stock. This means that the iPhone business is losing influence over the stock. We go over the four reasons why I think investors are now valuing Apple's future cash flows at a higher level. The episode concludes with three implications of Wall Street giving more attention to Apple's balance sheet, excess cash, and share repurchases. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Wall Street Has Begun to Think About Apple In a New Way (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 90: Buying Back 50% of Apple (podcast)

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Above Avalon Episode 101: iPhone Turns Ten

June 30, 2017 by Neil Cybart

This week marks the tenth anniversary of Apple launching the iPhone. Episode 101 is focused on how ten years of iPhone sales changed Apple. After going over three sets of data that stand out when thinking about the iPhone, we take a closer look at three lessons Apple learned from iPhone (ambition, control, platform). The episode concludes with a discussion of how the iPhone's legacy is already beginning to appear. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Turns Ten (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 98: iPhone Evolution (podcast)

Steve Jobs introduces the first Apple Store (video)

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Above Avalon Episode 100: A Glimpse of the Mac's Future

June 23, 2017 by Neil Cybart

The 100th episode of the Above Avalon podcast is dedicated to how WWDC contained clues hinting at the Mac's future. We begin by discussing how management's WWDC keynote marked a turning point in the awkward Mac stretch that has been unfolding over the past few years. We then compare the Mac portion of the keynote to the iPad portion in order to see the significant difference in tone and strategy. This difference ends up helping us map the Mac's direction. After going over some of the possible changes to the Mac line, we conclude the episode by talking about why this is unchartered territory for Apple. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

WWDC Clues Hint at Mac's Future (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 95: A Mac Headache (podcast)

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Above Avalon Episode 99: HomePod

June 17, 2017 by Neil Cybart

I am back from San Jose and WWDC. Episode 99 is focused on the most intriguing new product at this year's WWDC: HomePod. The discussion begins with an overview of the expectations heading into last week's HomePod unveiling. Apple's sales pitch for HomePod caught quite a few people by surprise. We then go over my impressions from listening to HomePod play various music genres. The episode then turns to HomePod's value around augmented hearing in the home and the broader strategy behind the product. After discussing HomePod pricing and a few challenges Apple faces with the product, we conclude by going over Apple's overall goal for the device. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

HomePod (weekly article)

The Battle Lines in Tech are Being Redrawn (weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 87: Change Is in the Air (podcast)

WWDC 2017 Review (member email)

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Above Avalon Episode 98: iPhone Evolution

May 26, 2017 by Neil Cybart

The iPhone's role in our life doesn't remain static, but rather it evolves. Episode 98 is focused on how the iPhone has evolved over the past 10 years. We cover the major implications this ongoing evolution will have on iPhone pricing, screen size preference, upgrade trends, and demand for other Apple products. The episode concludes with a discussion on the item responsible for breeding the evolutionary process found with iPhone. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Evolution (weekly article)

Video of Steve Jobs Introducing Original iPhone in 2007 (YouTube)

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