Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following story:

  • Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings

Apple reports FY4Q23 earnings (results from July to September) on Thursday. Today’s update includes Neil’s thoughts heading into Apple’s earnings.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,400+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Additional Details on “iPhone City” Production, The WSJ Article on Apple Moving Out of China, Apple and Concentration Risk, Above Avalon Gifts 2022

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Additional Details on “iPhone City” Production

  • The WSJ Article on Apple Moving Out of China

  • Apple and Concentration Risk

  • Above Avalon Gifts 2022

We kick off today’s update with additional details regarding how iPhone production at Foxconn’s facilities at Zhengzhou is trending. The discussion goes over further refinement in Neil’s estimates/assumptions for the shortage in iPhone sales in FY1Q23 arising from the Zhengzhou protests/riots. The update concludes with a look at the WSJ’s article about iPhone production in China. After going over why the WSJ’s headline is misleading, we discuss Apple’s product assembly strategy.

Above Avalon Gifts are now available for the 2022 holiday season. The full list of exclusive gift options available to members are found at the end of the update and here.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings, Apple 4Q22: By the Numbers, Breaking Down Apple’s Guidance

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings

  • Apple 4Q22: By the Numbers

  • Breaking Down Apple’s Guidance

Today’s update will be dedicated to going over Apple’s 4Q22 results and management commentary. The idea is to keep things broad today and look at the big picture, in addition to the financial results. The discussion will continue next week as we move beyond the numbers to look at the granular takeaways.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q22 Earnings Q&A With Analysts

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following story:

  • Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q22 Earnings Q&A With Analysts

Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 3Q22 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.



Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple’s 3Q22: The Key Numbers, iPhone Sales Resiliency, Apple Ecosystem Growth Slows

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Apple’s 3Q22: The Key Numbers

  • iPhone Sales Resiliency

  • Apple Ecosystem Growth Slows

We kick things off with a recap of Apple’s 3Q22 results and how the numbers compared to Neil’s expectations. The discussion includes a look at Neil’s unit sales estimates for Apple’s various products (data that Apple does not provide). We then look at the major takeaways from Apple's earnings: iPhone sales resiliency and slowing Apple ecosystem growth.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Previewing Apple’s 3Q22 Earnings, My Updated Apple Earnings Model, Early Look at Apple’s 4Q22

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Previewing Apple’s 3Q22 Earnings

  • My Updated Apple Earnings Model

  • Early Look at Apple’s 4Q22

We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts and expectations heading into Apple’s 3Q22 earnings release on Thursday. The update includes access to Neil’s updated Apple earnings model, which is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost. We conclude with some of Neil’s early thoughts regarding how Apple’s 4Q22 (July to September) is trending from a revenue and margins perspective.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Jony Ive and Apple End Consulting Agreement, Jony vs. No Jony, More Signs of iPhone Sales Resiliency

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Jony Ive and Apple End Consulting Agreement

  • Jony vs. No Jony

  • More Signs of iPhone Sales Resiliency

We will kick things off with a closer look at news of Jony Ive and Apple ending their multi-year consulting agreement. Neil adds context to the news by answering: What does Jony working or not working with Apple actually signify or denote? We conclude with more signs of iPhone demand and sales remaining resilient heading into the second half of 2022.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.



Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple’s 1Q22: By the Numbers, Apple Gross Margins Steal the Show, One Remaining Messy Growth Quarter, Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Train

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Apple’s 1Q22: By the Numbers

  • Apple Gross Margins Steal the Show

  • One Remaining Messy Growth Quarter

  • Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Train

We kick things off with a recap of Apple’s 1Q22 results and how the numbers compared to my expectations. The discussion includes my unit sales estimates for Apple’s various products (data that Apple does not provide). We then look at three major takeaways from Apple's earnings dealing with gross margins, forward growth rates, and the number paid subscriptions.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Nikkei Asia Calls Bloomberg’s Bluff on Slowing iPhone Demand, Connecting the iPhone Dots

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Nikkei Asia Calls Bloomberg’s Bluff on Slowing iPhone Demand

  • Connecting the iPhone Dots

In some ways, we have been working our way through a story that was being written while we were reading. Last week, Bloomberg kicked off the story with a questionable report on slowing iPhone demand. Earlier this week, DigiTimes contributed a chapter that amounted to more noise than anything else. Yesterday, we received something of a finale with Nikkei Asia entering the discussion. Today’s update will be dedicated to talking about Nikkei Asia’s (lengthy) report and what it all likely means for iPhone demand.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

More on iPhone's Future Sales Trajectory, Apple Health Said to Be in Turmoil, Tesla 3Q21 Deliveries

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • More on iPhone's Future Sales Trajectory

  • Apple Health Said to Be in Turmoil

  • Tesla 3Q21 Deliveries

We kick off today’s update with more on where I think iPhone sales head from current levels. The discussion then turns to Insider’s damning report about Apple’s health initiatives. We cut through the noise to see what may actually be happening. We conclude with a look at Tesla’s 3Q21 delivery numbers.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My iPhone Installed Base Estimate, iPhone Installed Base Growth Trend, Calculating the iPhone Upgrade Cycle Length

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • My iPhone Installed Base Estimate

  • iPhone Installed Base Growth Trend

  • Calculating the iPhone Upgrade Cycle Length

We tackle the next round of my Apple financial estimates by looking at the iPhone business. The update begins with my estimates and calculations used to reach the number of people currently using an iPhone (as of September 2021). The discussion then goes over the growth in the iPhone installed base over the past four years. We conclude with my estimate for the iPhone upgrade cycle length and how the estimate is ultimately derived.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My 3Q21 Apple Financial Estimates

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • My 3Q21 Apple Financial Estimates

In today’s update, we go over my granular financial estimates for Apple's 3Q21. The discussion includes the major assumptions behind my estimates as well as my early thoughts on Apple’s 4Q21. The update also includes access to my updated Apple earnings model, which is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Previewing Apple 2Q21 Earnings, My 2Q21 Apple Estimates, Apple Buyback and Dividend Projections

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Previewing Apple 2Q21 Earnings

  • My 2Q21 Apple Estimates

  • Apple Buyback and Dividend Projections

In today’s update, we kick things off with the big picture heading into Apple’s 2Q21 earnings release on Wednesday. The discussion then turns to my granular financial estimates for Apple's 2Q21. The update concludes with a closer look at what Apple will likely announce in terms of increases to its share buyback program and quarterly cash dividend.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My Notes From Apple’s Earnings Call, Apple’s Paid Subscriptions, Apple 10-Q Takeaways

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • My Notes From Apple’s Earnings Call

  • Apple’s Paid Subscriptions

  • Apple 10-Q Takeaways

In the past two updates, we covered the major takeaways and topics from Apple’s 1Q21 earnings. Today, we discuss some of the granular topics as we go through my notes from Apple’s earnings call and look at Apple’s 10-Q. We go over things that jumped out at me about Apple’s numbers and management’s commentary in addition to some implications arising from topics like iPhone channel inventory levels, 2Q21 guidance, the number of Apple paid subscriptions and its connection to the Apple One bundle, share buyback, and deferred revenue.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple Earnings, The Most Important Apple Number, Apple Remains Misunderstood

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Apple Earnings

  • The Most Important Apple Number

  • Apple Remains Misunderstood

Today's update will be dedicated to discussing Apple’s 1Q21 earnings. We begin by going over Apple’s financial results and how the numbers compared to my estimates. The update includes a deeper discussion of each line item (revenue, gross margins, EPS, products revenue and unit sales, Services revenue, and share buyback). We then go over what I thought was the most important number from Apple’s earnings release and conference call. The update concludes with why I think Apple remains misunderstood on Wall Street.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.