Estimating iPhone Sales Mix by Model, Video Streaming Is an Arms Race, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Estimating iPhone Sales Mix by Model
  • Video Streaming Is an Arms Race
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email by going over my estimates for iPhone sales mix by model during FY3Q17. We go over the methodology and data behind my estimates. The discussion then turns to Variety's interesting interview with Ted Sarandos, Netflix's Chief Content Officer. The video streaming space has become an arms race. We go over my thoughts on the interview and how I think Apple should approach Netflix. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members: 

  • What do you think is Apple's gross margin on services? 
  • Does Apple have room to grow its Services margin over the next four years? 
  • Who should Netflix buy? 
  • Do you see Netflix becoming more like Amazon over time?

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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The Future of Apple's Cash Machine, Apple Sets Original Video Content Budget, Apple Studios Taking Shape 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • The Future of Apple's Cash Machine
  • Apple Sets Original Video Content Budget
  • Apple Studios Taking Shape

We kick off today's email by going deeper into the discussion found in this week's AboveAvalon.com article ("Apple Has the Best Business Model for Generating Cash"). Specifically, we go over my thoughts on the Apple cash machine changing in the future. The discussion then turns to the WSJ reporting Apple has established a $1B budget for original video content. We go over my thoughts and observations on the report, including how that $1B stacks up to the budgets of other companies getting into original video content. The email then turns to my Apple Studios theory and how Apple's latest moves in video and music continue to fit with the idea of Apple establishing a somewhat independent content arm. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Aetna Looking to Subsidize Apple Watch, Thoughts on New Apple Watch Pricing and Naming

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Aetna Looking to Subsidize Apple Watch
  •  Thoughts on New Apple Watch Pricing and Naming

We kick off today's email with a closer look at CNBC's report regarding Aetna meeting with Apple to subsidize Apple Watches. The email then turns to my thoughts and observations on how Apple may price its new Apple Watches next month. We look at where a cellular Apple Watch fits into the line. The discussion concludes by going over my naming projections for the entire Apple Watch line. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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2Q17 Wearables Market Deep-Dive, Apple Working on Various AR Glasses Prototypes, Snap Spectacles Are Flopping

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • 2Q17 Wearables Market Deep-Dive
  • Apple Working on Various AR Glasses Prototypes
  • Snap Spectacles Are Flopping

We begin today's email with a closer look at how the wearables market played out in 2Q17. We go the major themes as well as sales leaders. We also look at my sales estimates for the industry and discuss why the total is different than it is with other research firms. The email then turns to a report from the Financial Times regarding Apple working on AR glasses. The discussion concludes with a closer look at Snap Spectacles sales and why I think the product is flopping in the marketplace. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Disney Announces Huge Strategic Shift, Disney's Impact on Apple, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Disney Announces Huge Strategic Shift
  • Disney's Impact on Apple
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Disney's strategic shift regarding content distribution. We go over the announcement and discuss the varying degrees of potential success with live sports and scripted content. The email then turns to the implications Disney's announcement has for Apple. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members: 

  • Who are the top candidates for becoming Tim Cook's successor as Apple CEO? 
  • How much of an impact would cellular connectivity provide for Apple Watch in the future? How would its usage change in relation to iPhone and AirPods? 
  • Do you believe the HomePod OS leak was intentional?
  • Would it have been better for Apple not to have sold the iPad mini? 
  • When could we see an Apple Glasses launch event?

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Fitbit Betting the Farm on a Smartwatch, Fossil Losing Steam in Wearables, Ming-Chi Kuo's Big iPhone Reversal

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Fitbit Betting the Farm on a Smartwatch
  • Fossil Losing Steam in Wearables
  • Ming-Chi Kuo's Big iPhone Reversal

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Fitbit's recent earnings. It is clear the company is betting it all on smartwatches. The discussion then turns to Fossil running into trouble in the wearables market. We dissect the company's problem and the implications it has regarding Apple and Apple Watch. The email concludes with a closer look at KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's huge reversal in iPhone projections. We go over the changes, what likely happened, and where everything stands heading into next month's iPhone event. We also discuss my latest thinking on new iPhone pricing. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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A Cellular Apple Watch Isn't a Stretch, Apple 3Q17 10-Q Takeaways 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • A Cellular Apple Watch Isn't a Stretch
  • Apple 3Q17 10-Q Takeaways

We begin today's email with my thoughts on why it is not a stretch for Apple to unveil a cellular Apple Watch next month. In yesterday's email, we discussed Apple's plans to unveil a cellular Apple Watch. Reactions to the topic contained much skepticsm. We go over the hesitation and then break down how it's plausible that Apple is ready to announce a cellular Apple Watch. The email then shifts to the key takeaways from Apple's quarterly 10-Q filing for 3Q17. We cover 10 financial topics. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple to Sell Cellular Apple Watch, Apple Watch to Follow iPhone "S" Cycle, My Theory on Intentional Apple Leaks

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Apple to Sell Cellular Apple Watch
  • Apple Watch to Follow iPhone "S" Cycle
  • My Theory on Intentional Apple Leaks

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple planning to unveil a cellular Apple Watch next month. We go over how such a product would fit within an iPhone world. The email then turns to the WSJ article reporting that Apple plans to update the Apple Watch like the iPhone going forward. We go over what such an update schedule would look like. The discussion concludes with my theory that news of a cellular Apple Watch is an intentional Apple leak a few weeks ahead of the company's largest product unveil in years. We go over controlled leaks, how the cellular Apple Watch reports display the characteristics of an intentional leak, and why Apple would be motivated to leak news about a cellular Apple Watch.

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Review: Details

Today's daily email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q17 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 26 different topics. 

The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full 3Q17 earnings review and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Review: Major Themes

Today's Above Avalon email is focused on reviewing Apple's 3Q17 earnings. Along with a big picture overview of the quarter, the email covers five major themes from the report and conference call: 

  • A Huge September iPhone Event Is Coming
  • iPad's Blowout Quarter
  • Cook's AR Exuberance
  • Apple Cash Builds
  • Punting the China Question

The second half of the earnings review (sent tomorrow) will go over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. 

The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full 3Q17 earnings review and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

The End of the iPod Era, Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Begin 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • The End of the iPod Era
  • Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Begin

We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple updating the iPod line. We have seen the unofficial end of the iPod era at Apple. Our discussion goes over iPod's history, including why it was such a remarkable product from a business perspective and how the iPod led to the iPhone. The email then turns to Tesla's recent Model 3 delivery event. We go over four items that jumped out at me about the Model 3 and the event. We also address whether success with Model 3 production means Tesla makes a better acquisition target for Apple.  

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Expectation Meters, Apple Glasses Timing, Apple Pulls VPN Apps in China 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Apple 3Q17 Earnings Expectation Meters
  • Apple Glasses Timing
  • Apple Pulls VPN Apps in China

We begin today's email with my 3Q17 Apple earnings expectation meters. Instead of relying on single-point sales estimates, these expectation meters contain sales ranges that can be used to judge Apple's quarterly performance. By using the expectation meters in conjunction with the earnings preview found in last week's emails (available here), we will be all ready for tomorrow's earnings. The discussion then turns to my "Apple Glasses Are Inevitable" article from last week. In particular, we go into the topic of timing in greater detail. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple pulling VPN apps from the App Store in China. We go over why the move was predictable and Apple's approach to governments (and regulations) around the world. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Jony Ive Is Leading Apple, Inside Samsung's Culture, Facebook Working on Smart Speaker 

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Jony Ive Is Leading Apple
  • Inside Samsung's Culture
  • Facebook Working on Smart Speaker

We kick off today's email by going over my thoughts and observations on the Jony Ive profile in the WSJ Magazine. There were quite a few important takeaways regarding Jony's role at Apple. The discussion then turns to Bloomberg's interesting look inside Samsung during a tumultuous time for the company. We go over my view on the piece and what it says about Samsung's culture. The email concludes with a discussion about Facebook reportedly planning to sell its own smart speaker for the home. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (4Q17 Guidance Discussion), Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales, The Rock Sells Siri

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (4Q17 Guidance Discussion)
  • Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales
  • The Rock Sells Siri

Today's email concludes my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. (The first two parts of the preview are available here and here.) We go over my thoughts on Apple's 4Q17 guidance. The discussion includes my rationale for taking a conservative stance regarding timing around the upcoming iPhone keynote. The keynote's timing has significant implications on Apple's 4Q17 revenue guidance. The email then turns to estimating Microsoft Surface unit sales during CY2Q17. We conclude with a closer look at Apple's new Siri ad with The Rock. There were six items that jumped out at me about the ad and The Rock's partnership with Apple. 

These stories, including the full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview, are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, Services Estimates)

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 2)

  • iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, Services Estimates

Today's email continues my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. (The first part of the preview is available here.) We discuss my iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. Tomorrow's email will go over my thoughts on what Apple will report for 4Q17 guidance next week. 

The full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full 3Q17 earnings preview and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($10/month or $100/year). For more information on membership, click here.