Alan Dye Leaves Apple for…Meta, Poaching Apple Employees: Nuisance or Big Problem?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Alan Dye Leaves Apple for…Meta
Poaching Apple Employees: Nuisance or Big Problem?
The update begins with Neil’s reaction to news that Alan Dye, Apple VP user interface design, moving over to Meta. The discussion then turns to the variety of reactions the Alan Dye news generated online. There has been a general theme to the madness. We also go over Neil’s theory for what may have pushed Dye to look at Meta. The update concludes with answering the following question: Has something changed in the marketplace so that poaching Apple employees has turned from a nuisance to a genuine problem?
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Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down, John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple, Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down
John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple
Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Hello everyone. The Apple news flow remains in overdrive. A few hours ago, news broke that Alan Dye is stepping down from leading user interface design to oversee a new creative studio within Meta’s Reality Labs. We will tackle that development tomorrow.
Today’s update ended up taking two full days to write. I had no interest in rushing something out yesterday that didn’t fully capture my stance, especially about such a multifaceted topic. Let’s jump in.
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iPhone 17 Sales Momentum, A Smartphone Industry Observation, Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
iPhone 17 Sales Momentum
A Smartphone Industry Observation
Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
We begin with Neil’s thoughts on the latest iPhone estimates from Counterpoint. The discussion then turns to one of Neil’s observations regarding what is unfolding in the broader smartphone industry. We conclude with some comments on Apple’s new 2025 holiday ad featuring puppets.
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Disney Earnings, Alphabet Earnings, Amazon Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Disney Earnings
Alphabet Earnings
Amazon Earnings
This update will cover Disney, Alphabet, and Amazon CY3Q25 earnings. Instead of losing ourselves in the weeds from a numbers perspective, the discussion will include both qualitative and quantitative takeaways.
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Netflix Earnings, Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix Earnings
Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
We begin today’s update by analyzing Netflix’s 3Q25 earnings and earnings call. The discussion then turns to the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process. By acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix would face two concerns. The update then concludes with how Neil sees the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process playing itself out.
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MLB’s New Media Rights, Tesla Planning CarPlay Support, More on Meta’s Business Model
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
MLB’s New Media Rights
Tesla Planning CarPlay Support
More on Meta’s Business Model
We wrap up a busy week with two news stories that jumped out at me. The update begins with a closer look at MLB (U.S. baseball) signing a new media rights deal. Our focus then turns to reportedly big news on the CarPlay front as Elon Musk is looking to eventual support CarPlay in Tesla vehicles. The third story ties up a few loose ends regarding our Meta discussion from yesterday.
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Meta 3Q25 Earnings, Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?, The Big Picture
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Meta 3Q25 Earnings
Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?
The Big Picture
We kick things off by going over the main takeaways from Meta’s earnings report. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks Mark Zuckerberg may have “kitchen sinked” capex expectations this time around. We conclude with some big picture thoughts on where Meta finds itself in both AI mania and the broader Big Tech landscape.
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More on Apple CEO Succession, Defining the Apple CEO Role, What Apple Should Do
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
More on Apple CEO Succession
Defining the Apple CEO Role
What Apple Should Do
Hello everyone. Today’s update will continue our discussion regarding Apple CEO succession, including what I think Apple should do over the next few years. The first half of the discussion can be found here.
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Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning, My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning
My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Hello everyone. This is going to be the first part of a two-part update dedicated to Apple CEO succession. The Financial Times is out with an important article on the topic. There’s much to discuss, including my thoughts on what may happen after Tim Cook steps down as CEO. Let’s jump right in.
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Friday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Friday Q&A
Hello everyone. Here is a special Friday edition of Q&A. It’s been a while since we last did a Q&A. Based on the number of incoming questions, it’s probably a good idea to run an installment more often.
The update covered the following questions:
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs to be illegal does that mean the tariff cost Apple reported is the only cost that goes away (or gets refunded depending on the ruling), or is Apple also paying non-IEEPA tariffs?
Do you think Apple’s share price will be affected by an overall bubble in AI tech shares bursting? (Or a balloon deflating!)
What does Apple think its stock is worth?
What is your opinion regarding the possibility of Apple acquiring Curiosity Stream or licensing their contents?
When is Apple releasing an updated Apple TV 4K unit?
Why didn’t Apple didn’t see the need for core technologies to power AI features back in 2022 (like many other big tech companies)? When Apple did see it, why didn’t they place a big bet on developing their own LLM rapidly (like other big tech companies) to become independent?
Are you concerned by the continued poaching of Apple employees by Jony Ive / OpenAI?
Did Apple make a mistake cancelling Project Titan?
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Apple Talks TV Strategy, No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now), Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Talks TV Strategy
No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now)
Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Happy Thursday. Apple TV (Eddy Cue, Jamie Erlicht, Zack Van Amburg) was on the cover of Screen International’s November 2025 edition. This was the most informative interview to date in terms of Apple executives discussing Apple TV strategy. After going over key takeaways from the interview, we look specifically at Apple shooting down the suggestion that an ad tier is coming to Apple TV. We conclude with Neil’s estimates for the number of Apple TV subscribers, ARPU, and revenue, including five-year projections.
Tomorrow’s update will be a special Friday Q&A edition. This is an opportunity to submit questions that you would like answered in a daily update. Questions can be about anything, including topics not previously covered in the updates. To submit a question, just reply to this email. You can also post your question in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Note: If you submitted a question within the past week via email, I have them. There is no need to re-send.
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Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket, A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations, The Larger Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket
A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations
The Larger Story
Hello everyone. Yesterday, Apple unveiled iPhone Pocket which is being positioned as a fashion accessory serving as an extra pocket for storing an iPhone, pair of AirPods etc. The product, developed via an Issey Miyake / Apple collaboration, grabbed a surprising amount of press on social media with quite a bit of the reaction tending down the path of mockery / amusement.
There are times when one can learn a surprising amount from the small things. iPhone Pocket feels like one of those “small things.” Accordingly, we are going to dedicate today’s update to talking about what may end up being the least expected product Apple will unveil in 2025. There are larger topics and trends that can be pulled from an accessory like iPhone Pocket being unveiled. Let’s jump in.
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Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri, The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini, Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri
The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini
Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Hello everyone.
The good news is that we wrapped up our Apple 4Q25 earnings review, leaving no (financial) stone unturned. If you missed any of the updates, you can check them out via the archive. We will now focus our attention on news and developments that occurred while we were focused on Apple earnings.
Today's update will take us into Siri land.
Let’s jump in.
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My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q25 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2025. There are a few remaining topics, such as share buyback and free cash flow, that we will also cover.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Happy Wednesday everyone.
For today’s update, we will continue our Apple 4Q25 earnings review with the latest installment of Reading Between the Lines. This will be a substantial update which explains why it is being published a day later than expected. Instead of splitting it up into two or even three updates, it is being kept together in one large update. We will conclude the week tomorrow (Thursday) with a 10-K examination which will raise a few related financial topics.
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 16th installment of Reading Between the Lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
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