Apple to Build Self-Driving Vans with Volkswagen, Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple to Build Self-Driving Vans with Volkswagen
  • Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use

The email kicks off with my thoughts on one of the bigger Apple scoops this year. Apple is reportedly partnering with Volkswagen to make self-driving vans. We then go over my estimates regarding the number of Apple devices in use. The device total is broken out by product category. 

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2Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates, 2Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 2Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates
  • 2Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates

I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPad installed and user base at the end of March 2018. We then go over my estimates for the Apple Watch installed and user base estimates at the end of March 2018. The discussion includes the methodology and math behind my estimates.

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2Q18 iPhone Installed Base Estimate, 2Q18 iPhone User Base Estimate, Greater Apple Services Visibility

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 2Q18 iPhone Installed Base Estimate
  • 2Q18 iPhone User Base Estimate
  • Greater Apple Services Visibility

I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base at the end of March 2018. We also go over how recent developments found with the iPhone user base bode well for greater visibility regarding Apple Services revenue trends. 

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1Q18 Smart Speaker Sales, Revisiting My Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage Thesis, YouTube Premium 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 1Q18 Smart Speaker Sales
  • Revisiting My Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage Thesis
  • YouTube Premium

Today's email kicks off with a look at recent smart speaker sales data for 1Q18. We then revisit my thesis regarding stationary smart speakers. The email concludes with my thoughts on Google reconfiguring its music and video paid subscription services around YouTube Premium.  

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Demystifying Apple Services, Apple Services and Hardware Dependency, Estimating Apple's Paid Subscription Mix

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Demystifying Apple Services
  • Apple Services and Hardware Dependency
  • Estimating Apple's Paid Subscription Mix

Today's email is dedicated to Apple Services. In particular, we go over the math and methodology behind my Apple Services revenue driver estimates. The discussion also goes over the implications found with Apple Services being dependent on Apple hardware. We conclude things by going over my estimates for the makeup of Apple's 270 million paid subscriptions. 

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Tesla's Reorganization, Tesla vs. Apple Turnover, Apple Expands Self-Driving Car Fleet

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Tesla's Reorganization
  • Tesla vs. Apple Turnover
  • Apple Expands Self-Driving Car Fleet

Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Elon Musk announcing a major Tesla reorganization. The discussion then turns to the difference between Tesla and Apple in terms of executive retention and turnover. The email concludes with a look at the latest evidence showing Apple's Project Titan continuing to expand. 

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Apple to Launch Apple Pay Credit Card, Apple's TV App Coming into Focus, The ZTE Twist

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple to Launch Apple Pay Credit Card
  • Apple's TV App Coming into Focus
  • The ZTE Twist

Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Apple reportedly working with Goldman Sachs on an Apple Pay credit card. The discussion then turns to Apple looking to sell paid video subscriptions directly through its TV app. The email concludes with two schools of thought regarding the ongoing ZTE saga involving U.S. / China relations. 

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Jony Ive's Odd Interview with Hodinkee, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Jony Ive's Odd Interview with Hodinkee
  • Thursday Q&A

Today's email begins with my thoughts on Jony Ive's interview with Hodinkee's Benjamin Clymer. The email then turns to the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon subscribers:

  • Why doesn't Apple fight back against questionable reporting and notorious leakers?
  • Why does Apple launch certain products at certain times of the year? 
  • Why doesn't Apple buy Qualcomm?
  • Do I think Apple is moving towards setting up a hardware / services subscription offering? 
  • Does Apple Music subscriber totals include individual listeners on family accounts? 
  • How did iPhone ASP decline so much in 2Q18 if iPhone X remained the best-selling iPhone? 
  • What do I think Apple management's initial expectations were for iPhone X sales? 
  • Is iPad running out of sales growth momentum? 

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Google I/O 2018, Apple vs. Google, Google's Wearables Strategy Is MIA

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Google I/O 2018
  • Apple vs. Google
  • Google's Wearables Strategy Is MIA

Today's email is dedicated to going over my thoughts on Google's I/O keynote.

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Fitbit Earnings, Spotify Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Fitbit Earnings
  • Spotify Earnings

Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Fitbit's 1Q18 earnings. The discussion then turns to going over Spotify's first earnings report as a public company. 

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Apple 2Q18 10-Q Notes, Warren Buffett Doubles Down on Apple Again

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 2Q18 10-Q Notes
  • Warren Buffett Doubles Down on Apple Again

Today's email kicks off with my notes from Apple's 2Q18 10-Q. We cover eight topics. The discussion then turns to Warren Buffett's growing bet on Apple. 

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Apple 2Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

Apple 2Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)

Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 2Q18 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 26 different topics. 

My full Apple 2Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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Apple 2Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

Apple 2Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

  • Apple Is Misunderstood
  • Welcome to the Goldilocks iPhone Era
  • China Fears Overdone
  • Sensational Apple Services
  • A Share Buyback Bomb

Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 2Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The second half of my earnings review (will be published tomorrow) will go over my full notes from Apple's earnings release and conference call. 

My full Apple 2Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.


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Sonos Prepares for IPO, Netflix Considered Buying Movie Theaters, Latest Microsoft Surface Sales

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Sonos Prepares for IPO
  • Netflix Considered Buying Movie Theaters
  • Latest Microsoft Surface Sales

Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Sonos preparing for an IPO. The discussion then turns to the Los Angeles Times scoop regarding Netflix thinking about buying movie theaters. We go over why the move makes plenty of sense for Netflix. The email concludes with Microsoft earnings by focusing on the latest Microsoft Surface sales data. 

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Apple Working on VR Headset?, Doubling Apple's Buyback Pace, Apple Officially Discontinues AirPort

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Working on VR Headset?
  • Doubling Apple's Buyback Pace
  • Apple Officially Discontinues AirPort

Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on CNET's article about Apple developing an AR/VR headset. There are parts of the report that don't sit well with me. The discussion then turns to Apple's upcoming announcements regarding its capital return program and buyback pace. We go over whether Wall Street has already priced in a big bump in Apple's share buyback pace. The email concludes with Apple officially discontinuing its AirPort routers. We discuss the two motivating factors behind Apple's decision. 

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