My 2Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for Apple's 3Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • My 2Q24 Apple Estimates

  • Expectations for Apple's 3Q24 Guidance

  • My Updated Apple Earnings Model

We go over the second half of my Apple earnings preview. The update covers my granular financial estimates for Apple’s 2Q24, my thoughts on what Apple will say about 3Q24, and my current Apple earnings model.

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Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings, Thoughts on Apple’s Stock Price Underperformance

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings

  • Thoughts on Apple’s Stock Price Underperformance

Happy last day of April. We will begin preparing for Apple earnings. Today’s discussion will look at the big picture ahead of Thursday’s earnings release. We will go over my granular estimates tomorrow.

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Alphabet 1Q24 Earnings, Pichai (Sort of) Hints at Apple / Gemini Rumors, Google Announces HW Reorganization

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Alphabet 1Q24 Earnings

  • Pichai (Sort Of) Hints at Apple / Gemini Rumors

  • Google Announces HW Reorganization

Today's update will look at Alphabet’s earnings.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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Meta 1Q24 Earnings, About Meta’s “AI-Recommendation” System, Meta’s HW Sales

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Meta 1Q24 Earnings

  • About Meta’s “AI-Recommendation” System

  • Meta’s HW Sales

Today's update will be dedicated to discussing Meta's earnings. We begin with my overall takeaways from the earnings release and conference call. The discussion then turns to focusing on Meta’s AI-recommendation system. We conclude with estimates to Meta’s HW sales (Quest and Ray-Ban Meta) during the quarter.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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Apple Announces May Product Event, Apple Vision Pro Sales Noise, A Few Suggestions for Apple

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Apple Announces May Product Event

  • Apple Vision Pro Sales Noise

  • A Few Suggestions for Apple

We will begin today’s update with some words on Apple’s upcoming product event. The discussion will then turn to Apple Vision Pro.

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Meta Unveils “Open” Mixed Reality Ecosystem, Zuckerberg’s Motivation, Getting Out Ahead of Android XR

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Meta Unveils “Open” Mixed Reality Ecosystem

  • Zuckerberg’s Motivation

  • Getting Out Ahead of Android XR

The news continues to flow. Today’s update will be focused on the big development from Meta in mixed reality land.

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  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

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Netflix 1Q24 Earnings, Netflix to Stop Disclosing Subscriber Data, Key Paid Video Streaming Metrics

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Netflix 1Q24 Earnings

  • Netflix to Stop Disclosing Subscriber Data

  • Key Paid Video Streaming Metrics

Welcome to a new week.

It’s hard to believe, but we are beginning another earnings season. Netflix reported earnings last week. Heading into this tech earnings cycle, there’s angst in the air. Many companies have seen very strong stock price performances to date – Apple and Tesla being the exceptions – while macro issues are once again grabbing headlines. 

Let’s jump right in with Netflix earnings.

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Humane Ai Pin and Smartphone Replacements, The Limitless Pendant, Apple Watch Momentum

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Humane Ai Pin and Smartphone Replacements

  • The Limitless Pendant

  • Apple Watch Momentum

This was a crazy week in the world of consumer gadgets as the Humane Ai Pin reviews were released. Not surprisingly, they weren’t pretty. More worrying for Humane, the product simply didn’t work for reviewers. There are a few directions we can take the discussion. This week’s Inside Orchard essay will look at several broad observations that have been on my mind regarding the whole ordeal.

For today’s update, we will begin by focusing on the idea of Humane Ai Pin replacing smartphones. Let’s jump in.

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Tim Cook Visits Vietnam for the First Time, Apple Open to Indonesia Manufacturing, Addressing U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Bottleneck

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Tim Cook Visits Vietnam for the First Time

  • Apple Open to Indonesia Manufacturing

  • Addressing U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Bottleneck

We kick things off with my thought’s on Tim Cook’s visit to Vietnam and Indonesia. The discussion includes various insights regarding Apple’s business in the two countries. We then turn back to semiconductor manufacture in the U.S.

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iPhone Sales Angst Continues, Sales on Apple Products Spread, Tesla Announces 10% Layoff

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • iPhone Sales Angst Continues

  • Sales on Apple Products Spread

  • Tesla Announces 10% Layoff

We kick things off with my thought’s on iPhone sales trends in the first three months of 2024. The discussion then turns to more retailers running with surprisingly large discounts on Apple products. We conclude with Tesla layoffs.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

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Tesla Reportedly Cancels Inexpensive Car Project, Tesla’s Master Plan, Part Deux, Friday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Tesla Reportedly Cancels Inexpensive Car Project

  • Tesla’s Master Plan, Part Deux

  • Friday Q&A

We kick things off with my thought’s on Reuters’ article regarding Tesla cancelling its Model 2 project. The discussion then revisits Elon Musk’s revised master plan for Tesla from the mid-2010s. The update concludes with a Friday Q&A and the following questions:

  • Were Project Titan’s cancellation and the in-house microLED displays team disbandment driven by cost-cutting motives as revenue stagnates?

  • Why can’t Apple build a battery-powered HomePod or HomePod mini for portable use cases?

  • Do you think it will take years for Apple Vision Pro to become a meaningful contribution to Apple’s revenue story?

  • Why didn’t Apple launch Apple Vision Pro with a larger catalog of Apple Immersive Video films?

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  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

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Revisiting iPhone Manufacturing In India, U.S. Announces TSMC Subsidy, Samsung to Receive U.S. Subsidy

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Revisiting iPhone Manufacturing In India

  • U.S. Announces TSMC Subsidy

  • Samsung to Receive U.S. Subsidy

Hello everyone. Today’s update has an Apple manufacturing / supply chain apparatus theme. We begin with my thoughts on some new reporting regarding iPhone manufacturing and assembly in India. There are a few underlying themes found with the iPhone manufacturing in India story. The update then turns to TSMC and Samsung receiving U.S. subsidies under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

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Apple Talks up Vision Pro at Work, Apple Announces Enterprise Spatial Design Lab, Inside Apple Vision Pro

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Apple Talks up Vision Pro at Work

  • Apple Announces Enterprise Spatial Design Lab

  • Inside Apple Vision Pro

In today’s update, we take a closer look at Apple’s attempt to draw attention to Vision Pro in business settings. The discussion turns to Apple announcing a new Enterprise Spatial Design Lab. We conclude with Lumafield publishing one of the more interesting “teardowns” of an Apple product.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

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Member Privileges and Benefits

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  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

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Apple Reportedly Partnering With Shutterstock for AI Model Training, Shutterstock’s Attractiveness, Apple Adds More Licensed Movies to Apple TV+

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Apple Reportedly Partnering With Shutterstock for AI Model Training

  • Shutterstock’s Attractiveness

  • Apple Adds More Licensed Movies to Apple TV+

Hello everyone. Yesterday (Monday) turned out to be crazier than expected given the solar eclipse and the NCAA basketball championship game. Even though we didn’t experience totality in Connecticut, the eclipse still made for an exciting day. A few members reached out with some impressive photos and videos.

Congratulations UConn on winning their SIXTH basketball championship in style by going back-to-back. Go Huskies.

In today’s update, we go over my thoughts on the Reuters story regarding the how and why everyone in Big Tech is running to established content (photo) providers for ML and AI model training. The discussion then turns specifically to Shutterstock. We conclude with a few new observations regarding more licensed movies being available on Apple TV+.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.

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Tesla 1Q24 Deliveries, What’s up With Tesla?, Ford Increases Bet on Hybrids, GM Shakes up Software Team

Today's Above Avalon Daily email covers the following topics:

  • Tesla 1Q24 Deliveries

  • What’s up With Tesla?

  • Ford Increases Bet on Hybrids

  • GM Shakes up Software Team

One member in the forum raised a good point regarding livestreaming Apple Immersive Video. Last year, Apple acquired WaveOne. We talked about the acquisition in the March 28th, 2023 update (available here). The company was in the business of AI algorithms for video compression. The takeaway from that acquisition wasn’t specific to livestreaming sports but rather the broader trend of consuming video and your surroundings on spatial computers.

Today’s update will be dedicated to the auto space.

A few quick notes regarding how we will approach the auto industry following Apple halting Project Titan. In summary, there won’t be any major changes to coverage.

  1. It is good to keep abreast of what’s unfolding in the car industry as the market is too large for Apple to ignore. While the ingredients may not be in ripe for Apple’s entry over the next few years, we can’t rule out the company having renewed interest down the road.

  2. Apple’s CarPlay initiative is one of the more promising integrations between first-party hardware and non-Apple hardware. There are plenty of related implications worth monitoring including Apple Services’ role on the road (maps, music, etc.). It is good to stay up to date as to how CarPlay is being embraced via vehicles sales trends etc.

Let’s jump into today’s update.

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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

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  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

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