Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales, App Store FY4Q18 Trends, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales

  • App Store FY4Q18 Trends

  • Thursday Q&A

We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on early iPhone XS and XS Max sales. The discussion then turns to the most recent App Store revenue trends. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Do you think there will be longer lines at Apple stores for iPhone XR vs. iPhone XS / XS Max?

  • Will Apple work out deals to position third-party content alongside its original video content? 

  • What kind of "family friendly" content do you think Apple will pursue for their own video / TV productions? Is there a certain content niche here for Apple?

  • How representative are Shazam's AR efforts for future Apple AR use cases?

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Netflix 3Q18 Earnings, Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers, Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal  

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Netflix 3Q18 Earnings

  • Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers

  • Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal  

The email kicks off with Netflix 3Q18 earnings. We go over the most important takeaways from the financials, shareholder letter, and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to iOS 12 and we go over my estimates for the absolute number of iOS devices running iOS 12 and the number of iOS devices in the wild that were introduced before 2014. The email concludes with Facebook revising its data collection stance with Portal and why the entire situation is a complete mess for the company.

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Jony Ive on Human Connection, Jony’s Power Within Apple, Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Jony Ive on Human Connection

  • Jony’s Power Within Apple

  • Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX

The email kicks off with my thoughts on Jony Ive’s talk at Wired’s 25th anniversary event in San Francisco. Jony was interviewed by Anna Wintour. The discussion then turns to Jony’s future at Apple and my stance on power within Apple. The email concludes with Photoshop coming to iPad Pro and Apple SVP Phil Schiller going on stage at Adobe MAX. Schiller had some interesting comments to say about the iPad’s role within Apple’s product line.

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The Stock Market Sell-Off, Dialog Announces Apple Agreement, Apple Acquires Asaii

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The Stock Market Sell-Off

  • Dialog Announces Apple Agreement

  • Apple Acquires Asaii

The email begins with my thoughts regarding the latest stock market sell-off. We then turn to Dialog Semiconductor and Apple announcing a multi-year agreement. We go over Apple’s motivation behind the agreement. The email concludes with a look at Asaii, Apple’s latest acquisition target. We go over the two ways Apple can use Asaii.

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The Paid Video Streaming Market Is Wide Open, Apple to Bundle Original Content in TV App, AT&T Reveals Video Bundle Plans

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The Paid Video Streaming Market Is Wide Open

  • Apple to Bundle Original Content in TV App

  • AT&T Reveals Video Bundle Plans

Given the news flow, today’s daily update is going to be Thursday Media Mania. We kick things off with Netflix, then turn to Apple Video, and conclude with AT&T / HBO.

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Facebook Unveils Portal, Google Unveils Home Hub, Google Hid Data Bug

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Facebook Unveils Portal

  • Google Unveils Home Hub

  • Google Hid Data Bug

We kick off today’s email by going over my thoughts on Facebook Portal and Google Home Hub. The discussion includes why I think these devices will end up being more of a head fake than anything else. The email concludes with Google hiding a Google+ data bug for fear that it would draw regulatory scrutiny.

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Thoughts on Bloomberg Businessweek’s China Hacking Story

Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing my thoughts on Bloomberg Businessweek’s China hacking story.

The email (3,200 words) contains the following sections: 

  • The Story

  • Apple's Response

  • Lots of Questions

  • My Theory

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Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity, NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance, Honda Invests in GM Cruise

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity

  • NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance

  • Honda Invests in GM Cruise

We kick off today’s email by discussing the difference between Apple’s iPad and Mac strategy versus Microsoft’s Surface strategy. The email then turns to Apple Watch criticism. We conclude with news from the auto industry as two rivals join forces to work on autonomous cars.

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Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News, Microsoft’s Surface Event, Microsoft's Surface All Access

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News

  • Microsoft’s Surface Event

  • Microsoft's Surface All Access

We kick off today’s email by going over Tim Cook’s interview with VICE. The discussion then turns to Microsoft’s Surface event in NYC and we go over my thoughts on Microsoft’s Surface strategy, Surface Headphones, and Surface All Access.

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Estimating Apple’s Google TAC Revenue, Smart Speaker Usage Trends, Apple's New iPhone XS Ad

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Estimating Apple’s Google TAC Revenue

  • Smart Speaker Usage Trends

  • Apple's New iPhone XS Ad

We begin today’s email with Google’s traffic acquisition cost (TAC) payments to Apple. The discussion includes a closer look at the very aggressive Google TAC revenue estimate published last week by Goldman Sachs. The email then turns to smart speakers and we go over the latest usage trends from Nielsen. We conclude with a quick look at Apple’s new iPhone ad.

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Apple Adds Second Apple Watch Series 4 Manufacturer, Elon Musk Settles with the SEC, How to Tame Elon Musk

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Adds Second Apple Watch Series 4 Manufacturer

  • Elon Musk Settles with the SEC

  • How to Tame Elon Musk

We kick off today’s email with a discussion regarding Apple Watch sales. The email then shifts to Elon Musk, the SEC, and the idea that Elon Musk can be tamed.

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The Good and Bad News with Apple News, Apple News as a Paid Subscription, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The Good and Bad News with Apple News

  • Apple News as a Paid Subscription

  • Thursday Q&A

We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on the good and bad news with Apple News. We go over Slate’s big cover story regarding Apple News. The discussion then turns to how Apple can embrace paid subscriptions with Apple News. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Do I expect Apple to unveil AirPods 2.0 in October?

  • Why is Apple sharing production details associated with its marketing materials?

  • Why do you think Apple Watch partnerships haven’t extended beyond Nike and Hermès?

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional, iPhone BOM Funny Math, 1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional

  • iPhone BOM Funny Math

  • 1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends

We kick off today’s email by going over my thoughts on Apple launching the iPhone XR a few weeks after the iPhone XS and XS Max release. The discussion then turns to iPhone gross margins and the reasons why bill of materials (BOM) analysis for iPhone is not a credible way to derive margin estimates. The email concludes with the latest music sales trends from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). We go over three points from the data that stood out to me.

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Amazon's Hardware Event, SiriusXM Buys Pandora, Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Amazon's Hardware Event

  • SiriusXM Buys Pandora

  • Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition

We kick off today’s email by going over Amazon’s hardware event. The discussion then turns to SiriusXM buying Pandora. We go over SiriusXM’s motivation for the deal. The email concludes with a few thoughts on Apple’s Shazam acquisition.

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iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions, Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions, WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions

  • Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions

  • WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video

Today's email is going to be product focused as we discuss some of my initial impressions of the iPhone XS Max and Apple Watch Series 4. The email concludes with my thoughts on the WSJ’s concerns regarding the strict content policies Apple is relying on to create its video streaming service.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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