Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
Happy Thursday. Apple’s FY1Q26 earnings are out. Both 1Q26 results and 2Q26 guidance were strong. We will talk about it tomorrow (Friday).
For today’s update, we will continue our earnings reviews with Meta.
Let’s jump right in.
Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
For the past few quarters, a financial narrative battle has surrounded Meta. Following the company’s 4Q25 earnings release, this battle remains front and center.
One side thinks the Meta story should be primarily focused on revenue growth. Along those lines, there is a compelling story to tell.
Meta’s 4Q25 revenue was up 24% to $59.9B.
Meta’s 4Q25 ad impressions were up 18%.
Daily active users was up 7% to 3.58B.
Billions of users are spending more time on a Meta property consuming video clips, text posts, articles, and advertising.
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates, Above Avalon Expectation Meters (1Q26 Edition)
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 1Q26 earnings preview. Apple reports earnings on Thursday at 4:30 pm ET.
Let’s jump in.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates
The overall theme to my Apple FY1Q26 estimates: improving fundamentals. Most financial line items are trending better in FY2026 compared to FY2025. There are a few exceptions which we will discuss in a few minutes.
Apple will report the following records on Thursday:
Quarterly revenue
Operating income
Net income
iPhone quarterly revenue
Services quarterly revenue
Services gross margin
Here are my expectations for Apple’s key 1Q26 metrics:
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
Hello everyone.
Monday doubled as snowstorm cleanup day here in Connecticut. We received a little bit north of 16 inches, the most in about a decade. It certainly felt more during cleanup.
For today’s update, we will begin previewing Apple’s 1Q26 earnings which will be released on Thursday. The discussion will roll into tomorrow's update as well.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
We are witnessing one of the largest divergences heading into an Apple earnings release in recent memory.
The company’s business fundamentals continue to improve. The company is going to report an all-time quarterly record on a few fronts on Thursday. Thanks to strong device sales trends and robust Services performance, revenue growth is trending 3x stronger than what it was last year at this time.
Set against these improving trends, Wall Street’s attitude and feelings toward Apple has turned negative over the past two months.
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Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today’s update is dedicated to talking about The Information’s article regarding Apple working on an AI wearable pin. There may be some funny business at play. Let’s discuss.
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Netflix 4Q25 Earnings, Netflix Is Misreading the Market, The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix 4Q25 Earnings
Netflix Is Misreading the Market
The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
The 4Q25 earnings season has begun for us. We will kick things off by analyzing Netflix’s 4Q25 earnings and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to how Netflix is misreading the market. We conclude with Neil’s thoughts on where the Warner Bros. Discovery deal stands.
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Ads Coming to ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Strategy, Apple Implications
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Ads Coming to ChatGPT
OpenAI’s Strategy
Apple Implications
The update is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on ads coming to ChatGPT. In particular, we analyze OpenAI’s strategy. Is OpenAI late or early with bringing ads to ChatGPT? Related implications that ads in ChatGPT raise for Apple are also discussed.
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Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap, Estimating App Store Revenue, Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap
Estimating App Store Revenue
Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
In a welcome change, Apple used the first few weeks of a new calendar year to return to publishing a year-in-review for its Services business. We begin today’s update by going over Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s press release. The discussion then goes over Neil’s estimates for App Store revenue and the various revenue growth drivers responsible for Apple’s Services revenue growth.
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Apple Unveils Apple Creator Studio, Apple’s Bet, Potential Risk Factors
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils Apple Creator Studio
Apple’s Bet
Potential Risk Factors
Hello everyone. Apple unveiled a new paid service that plays in the creative app vertical. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing the new service. The discussion goes over Apple’s broader bet that is being placed with Apple Creator Studio.
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Apple and Google Make Gemini Models Deal Official, Apple’s Optionality, Revisiting Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple and Google Make Gemini Models Deal Official
Apple’s Optionality
Revisiting Apple’s (AI) Long Game
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Apple and Google announcing a deal regarding Apple Foundation models being based on Gemini models. The discussion then turns to how the deal provides Apple optionality when thinking about longer-term implications. We conclude by going over Apple’s (AI) long game.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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My Impressions Watching LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
My Impressions Watching LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video
Last Friday, the first LA Lakers game in Apple Immersive Video aired. A full replay is available to most Apple Vision Pro owners for free (via the NBA app). Today’s update will go over my impressions watching the game. We will continue the discussion tomorrow.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Chase to Take Over Apple Card From Goldman, Possible Apple Card Changes, A Different Sales Proposition for Apple Vision Pro?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Chase to Take Over Apple Card From Goldman
Possible Apple Card Changes
A Different Sales Proposition for Apple Vision Pro?
We wrap up the first week of updates in 2026 with Apple Card. The update goes over Neil’s thoughts on news that Chase will officially be taking over Apple Card from Goldman Sachs. The discussion covers possible changes that will eventually come to Apple Card. We conclude the update with Apple Vision Pro. One comment that came in from a subscriber to yesterday’s LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video discussion deserves our attention.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Getting Ready for LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video, A Big Deal, What’s Next?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Getting Ready for LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video
A Big Deal
What’s Next?
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on new details regarding the upcoming LA Lakers games that will be available in Apple Immersive Video. The discussion then turns to why these games are such a big deal for Apple and Apple Vision Pro. We conclude with Neil’s thoughts on how all of this may play out when thinking about the next steps and Apple’s broader ambition.
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Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Apple Questions for 2026 (Part 2 – Apple Watch, iPad, Mac, AVP, Home, Services, SW, Siri, Other)
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple Questions for 2026 (Part 2 – Apple Watch, iPad, Mac, AVP, Home, Services, SW, Siri, Other)
Today’s update will conclude my questions for Apple in 2026. Approximately 25 questions are addressed. Instead of coming up with predictions for Apple at the start of 2026, there is value found in embracing the unknown and looking at questions facing the company in the new year. When combined with yesterday’s update, 35 Apple questions have been complied for 2026.
Let’s jump in.
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Apple Questions for 2026 (Part 1 – Big Picture and iPhone)
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple Questions for 2026 (Part 1 – Big Picture and iPhone)
Similar to how we tried something new to wrap up 2025, the first update of the new year will be a bit different from what was published in prior years.
Above Avalon launched in 2014. For the first six years, I began each new calendar year by publishing a list of questions facing Apple. This was my answer to New Year’s prediction posts, links, and tweets. Predictions are nothing more than attempts at manufacturing clarity for what is inherently a sea of unknown. New Year’s predictions are even more problematic as the person issuing the prediction needs to come up with what may happen, and the predicted event must occur within an arbitrary time.
Instead of coming up with predictions for Apple at the start of 2026, there is value found in embracing the unknown and looking at questions facing the company in the new year. The irony is that embracing the unknown found with asking questions will aid navigating the sea of unknown.
For today’s update, we will focus on questions related to several big picture topics along with the iPhone. The discussion will continue in tomorrow’s update (available here).
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Above Avalon Daily Year in Review 2025 – The Top 20 Apple Stories of 2025 (#10 to #1)
In 2025, 168 Above Avalon Daily updates consisting of approximately 450 stories were published. As we prepare to close out 2025, an idea that came to me a few weeks ago was to recap the 20 most interesting stories published in 2025.
Approximately 40 stories made the first cut with four additional cuts needed to bring the total down to 20 stories. With those 20 stories in hand, they were then ranked in terms of their overall impact / intrigue level / importance. The result is the first edition of the Above Avalon Daily Year in Review.
For today’s update, we will conclude the review by going over the #10 to #1 stories (with #1 being the top story covered in Above Avalon Daily in 2025). For each story, clicking the headline will bring you to the daily update that contained the story.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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