Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” Event: The Hardware Optimization Era Has Arrived at Apple
Hello everyone. Today's article will kick off our Apple event review. We will continue our discussion on Monday.
Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” Event: The Hardware Optimization Era Has Arrived at Apple
For the third year in a row, Apple’s September event showcased a HW aggressiveness that felt different from what we saw in the past. As Apple’s established product categories age, they are receiving larger, more noteworthy changes and updates. Categories that some people may have assumed had peaked from an innovation standpoint are being reimagined. We are seeing the hardware optimization era at Apple. Optimized hardware is combined with new features powered by Apple Intelligence to give the Apple ecosystem a higher gear.
Apple wasn’t previously lacking in the HW showstoppers arena. The iPhone X (2017), AirPods Pro (2019), and Apple Watch Ultra (2022) come to mind as HW unveilings that mattered. In addition, Apple has long been an industry-leader with its HW iteration process, giving each product generation a handful of new features that when compounded across several years amount to significant change. The difference now is that years of custom silicon expertise and miniaturization efforts, in addition to greater intelligence, are fueling Apple’s HW curiosity.
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Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s Big Event
Hello everyone. Today’s article will be dedicated to going over my thoughts ahead of Apple’s big event taking place tomorrow at Apple Park. I find myself thinking about a few high-level ideas regarding the iPhone and Apple Watch. Let's jump in.
Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s Big Event
For the second year in a row, Apple will unveil an all-new iPhone form factor at its big September event. Last year’s iPhone Air was the most noteworthy iPhone redesign since the iPhone X was unveiled in 2017.
Apple will announce an even more noteworthy iPhone redesign tomorrow with its first foldable device (containing two distinct displays) which is expected to be called iPhone Ultra. (iPhone Duo seems to be the dark horse for device naming.)
Apple is in the middle of its most aggressive iPhone update cycle since the category launched in 2007. Not only is Apple
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My Impressions Watching Baseball in Apple Immersive
Last week, the first Friday Night Baseball (MLB) game aired in Apple Immersive. Viewers got an up-close look at Yankee Stadium in NYC as the Yankees played against the Boston Red Sox. The game is available to watch with an Apple TV subscription and any Apple Vision Pro (M2 and M5). Four Friday Night Baseball games will air in Apple Immersive.
As a brief background, my sports consumption allegiance is found with basketball, college basketball to be exact. The immense change unfolding in college athletics, with my alma mater the UConn Huskies at the top of the college basketball world, has captured my attention the past few years. Baseball watching is not high on my list of routine watching, although last year’s World Series was entertaining. My experience as a baseball fan is found primarily with attending collegiate summer league games such as the Cape Cod Baseball League.
Overall, baseball in Apple Immersive
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Apple Is Picking Low-Hanging Fruit With Another Apple TV Price Increase
Happy Wednesday. Let's jump right into today's article.
Apple Is Picking Low-Hanging Fruit With Another Apple TV Price Increase
Despite another 15% increase, Apple TV continues to offer best-in-class value.
In what has become the norm in video streaming land, Apple announced another subscription price increase to Apple TV. Given several factors and industry developments, the move strikes me as low risk for Apple.
Last week, the following Apple TV price changes went into effect immediately:
Monthly: $12.99 -> $14.99
Annual: $99 -> $119
Apple One bundle (Individual): $19.95 -> $21.95
In August 2025, Apple announced a substantial 30% increase to monthly Apple TV pricing ($9.99 -> $12.99). Annual subscription pricing remained steady at $99 with Apple One pricing also staying put. By increasing the pricing delta between monthly and annual subscriptions, Apple appeared to be nudging monthly Apple TV subscribers to switch to annual subscriptions and bundles. The motivation behind such a push would be to use price savings as a carrot to improve churn. Monthly Apple TV subscribers likely register higher churn rates than what is seen with annual Apple TV subscribers. Instead of being unique to Apple TV, such churn behavior is industry wide. After years of price increases, subscribers continue to embrace the idea of switching between services throughout the year.
Last week’s Apple TV subscription price hikes are different from last year’s increase in that
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Apple Product Priorities for the John Ternus Era
Hello everyone. Apple updated its leadership page earlier today to reflect the official change in CEO. John Ternus’s bio mentions his work leading Apple’s efforts at improving device reliability, durability, repairability, and environmental sustainability. All of those items will continue to be prioritized by Ternus as CEO. In addition, a few other executive bios were updated to reflect some shifts in oversight. A big one is the App Store moving from Phil Schiller to Eddy Cue. Apple Events oversight moves from Phil Schiller over to Kristin Quayle and Communications.
Speaking of priorities, today’s article will take us deep into product strategy territory as we assess where the most intrigue is found in Apple’s product line. This exercise will require us to first assess Apple’s current product strategy. We will then turn to what drives Apple’s product development priorities. Let’s jump in.
Apple Product Priorities for the John Ternus Era
Apple breaks out its product line into the following nine categories (as depicted on Apple’s website).
iPhone
iPad
AirPods
Watch
Mac
TV & Home (Apple TV 4K, HomePod, and HomePod mini)
Vision
Entertainment (Apple TV, Music, Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple News+, Apple Podcasts, Apple Books, App Store)
Accessories (includes AirTag, Beats)
The naming and segmentation strategy that Apple utilizes for its various product categories will evolve over time, reflecting both changes in the product line and sales trends.
When it comes to broader product strategy, the “push” strategy that Apple employs (since 2019) continues to serve the company well. There isn’t an expiration date found with the concept of pushing all major product categories forward simultaneously. One characteristic of Apple’s older pull strategy was elevating product categories that were viewed as most effective at making technology more personal. This resulted in other product categories fighting not to be left behind. The change from a pull to push system manifested itself with each product category being given a defined and unique role to handle within the Apple ecosystem. The product categories have been allowed to stay true to their inherent design language. The iPad and Mac have been the primary benefactors arising from Apple’s shift to a push system.
The perceived risk found with a push strategy - supporting legacy workflows to the detriment of Apple’s long-standing mission of making technology more personal and relevant – has been kept in check.
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Gadgets Won’t Define Tim Cook’s Legacy
Happy Monday. Welcome to a new week. Today marks Tim Cook’s last official day as Apple CEO. It seems fitting to dedicate today’s article to Cook. Let’s jump in.
Gadgets Won’t Define Tim Cook’s Legacy
What looks to be a very busy September for Apple will also see John Ternus’s tenure as CEO begin. As part of Apple’s well-orchestrated CEO succession, Ternus has been job shadowing Tim Cook for months. Presumably, Ternus has already unofficially taken the CEO reigns.
Cook has been one of the best all-around CEOs we have seen in the modern business world. Compared to other Big Tech CEOs, there really isn’t a close second either. Unfortunately, time will likely need to pass for more people to realize just how effective and efficient Cook was as CEO.
It's tempting to judge Cook’s time as Apple CEO through a product lens. We can put the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro on pedestals to compare them to products such as the iPod, iPhone, and iPad that launched during the Steve Jobs era. However, such comparisons don’t strike me as being complete. Instead, they are superficial and shallow.
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Apple Reaches App Distribution Agreement With EU and It’s Surprisingly Not Horrific
Hello everyone. We wrap up this week’s articles with a closer look at where things stand with iOS app distribution in the EU. Two weeks ago, there was a major development regarding Apple and the European Commission coming to an agreement regarding business terms for apps. Let’s jump in.
Apple Reaches App Distribution Agreement With EU and It’s Surprisingly Not Horrific
Last year, Apple submitted revised terms for app distribution in the EU under the DMA. The Above Avalon article from July 3rd, 2025 discussed the changes that weren’t the easiest to track and understand. The two big takeaways from those revised terms were:
For most developers (i.e. 95% of developers with apps in the App Store), Apple’s Small Business Program and in-app purchase (IAP) remained the way to go. For these developers, 15% revenue share continued to be an attractive percentage for what is received in return.
For the largest ~5% of iOS developers with apps in the EU App Store, regardless of the path taken, Apple remained focused on being compensated for its IP (as it should be). Apple’s revisions supported the view that management was willing to give up some revenue share by allowing developers to opt out of some App Store services.
Shortly after Apple announced its revised terms, U.S. press indicated that the European Commission was leaning toward approving the terms partly to please the Trump administration. The Commission did say at the time that it was seeking feedback from developers as to what they thought of Apple’s revised terms. As it turned out, the Commission approval that was apparently coming never occurred, which led to additional back and forth between the EU and Apple. We now have Apple taking another crack at revised terms for app distribution in the EU under the DMA, and it sounds like the Commission is OK with the terms.
In a press release issued on August 18th, here's Apple:
“Apple today announced changes to its business terms for apps in the European Union, following close collaboration with the European Commission. These changes resolve Apple’s disagreements with the Commission over business terms and alternative distribution. They also reduce complexity by moving every developer that distributes apps in the EU to a single set of business terms. Developers can sign the new terms today, and changes will go into effect on October 1.
Under this new model, Apple will charge a commission on the sale of digital goods and services. The Core Technology Fee, a per-install fee for developers that achieve extraordinary scale, will be replaced by the Core Technology Commission, a simple 5 percent commission on digital transactions in apps distributed outside the App Store. The new terms also eliminate the initial acquisition fee and store services fee.
In addition, Apple is adjusting commission rates across the App Store, alternative app payments, and alternatively distributed apps. Each of these commissions reflects the many ways Apple creates value for developers’ apps, whether they use the App Store and/or Apple In-App Purchase.”
The dramatic shift from what had been a confusing web of terms and conditions with entirely different tracks and scenarios for developers to come from to universal conditions that can be captured in a few bullet points will be welcomed by all parties involved, including Apple.
Apple’s revised revenue share terms for app distribution in the EU are as follows:
App Store (with IAP): 26% (15% for most developers who are in either the Small Business Program, Video Partner Program, or the Mini Apps Partner Program).
App Store (with alternative in-app payments): 20% (10% for developers in the discounted programs).
App Store (with link-outs): 15% (10% for developers in the discounted programs).
Alternative App Marketplaces or web distribution: a 5% “Core Technology Commission” applied to digital goods transactions.
The 15% / 10% percentages for transactions that occur outside apps via link-outs are equal to Apple’s proposed percentages to the Court regarding transactions that occur outside apps via link-outs in the U.S. App Store. The 10% for small business developers is better than the 5% proposed for the U.S.
My initial impression of these revised terms is that
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Anti-Steering Impact on App Store Revenue Beginning to Appear
Hello everyone. Today’s article will address news on the App Store anti-steering front in the U.S. In addition, we will cover recent reports of declining U.S. App Store revenue. Let’s jump in.
Anti-Steering Impact on App Store Revenue Beginning to Appear
U.S. App Store anti-steering needs a (legal) resolution.
In April 2025, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers gave the App Store a gut punch with one of the more insane legal rulings in the modern digital era. Apple was forced to completely dismantle its anti-steering apparatus and allow iOS developers in the U.S. to include as many link-outs within their apps as desired. Apple was then unable to charge developers for transactions that occur outside apps via link-outs. Apple had been charging 27%, a rate that seemed to be obtained by Apple simply taking its regular 30% revenue share percentage and removing a 3% payment processing fee. (The lack of evidence for how Apple settled on 27% played a role in the Court coming down hard on Apple in its injunction ruling.)
The Court’s ruling had the effect of allowing companies to rent space in the world’s busiest brick-and-mortar retailer for free.
The injunction ruling from Judge Gonzalez Rogers was so extreme (and unexpected) that Apple may have withheld Services revenue guidance at the time given the possibility of a sudden drop in App Store revenue. (Apple never confirmed in exact terms the reason for withholding Services revenue guidance, but there was no obvious reason for doing so other than the unknown surrounding the injunction ruling.)
In December 2025, a U.S. appellate court ruled that Judge Gonzalez Rogers’ ruling was right, just too harsh and broad.
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Apple Unveils Updated Mac Mini and Mac Studio: Right Place at the Right Time
Happy Tuesday everyone. Today’s article will have a product focus as we travel to Mac land. Let’s jump in.
Apple Unveils Updated Mac Mini and Mac Studio: Right Place at the Right Time
The Mac is Experiencing an AI-Driven Demand Bonanza
In a rare move ahead of its largest product event of the year, Apple announced two new M-series chips (M6 and M5 Ultra) anchoring broader updates to the Mac mini and Mac Studio.
Here’s Apple:
"Apple today debuted M6 in the new Mac mini and M5 Ultra in the new Mac Studio, providing an extraordinary leap in performance and AI capabilities. M6, Apple’s first state-of-the-art 2-nanometer chip, advances every compute block, delivering gains across every dimension of performance. The chip features a larger 12-core CPU complex with the world’s fastest CPU core, a larger 12-core GPU with Neural Accelerators, a Dual 16-core Neural Engine, and up to 170GB/s of unified memory bandwidth. M5 Ultra, the ultimate powerhouse for pro and AI workloads, uses next-generation UltraFusion technology to form a quad-die architecture for the first time in an M-series system on a chip (SoC). The chip includes an up-to-36-core CPU and up-to-80-core GPU with a massive 1.2TB/s of unified memory bandwidth, 50 percent more than M3 Ultra.”
If one couldn’t tell by the multi-month online delivery waits for Mac mini and Mac Studio, Mac desktops have been having something of an AI-infused moment. Demand for Apple’s most powerful Mac desktops have exploded higher due to AI mania and Silicon Valley’s agentic AI curiosities.
Apple management knew that the Mac mini and Mac Studio would be popular machines with AI workflows in mind. For the past few years, demand for HW capable of running powerful LLMs on-device had been on the rise. However, the bonanza created by OpenClaw earlier this year served as something of a wakeup call to senior leaders. The Mac was exactly at the right place at the right time. Not only were existing Mac users looking to upgrade their older units, but the fundamental way the Mac was being used within workflows was changing. Mac minis and Mac Studios were being positioned as agentic AI workhorses in setups already consisting of Mac portables. Apple has also seen the rise of multiple Mac minis and Mac Studios being used in clusters with on-device AI in mind. A cluster consisting of four Mac Studios can support a trillion parameter on-device LLM. Up to six Macs can be put in a cluster. There is still room to go, but the idea of one day tracking the average number of Macs per user is not fantasy.
It wasn’t too long ago when Apple came across as being shy to mention “AI” in a Mac press release as doing so was viewed as
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Walmart Waves the White Flag to Apple Pay
Hello everyone. It feels good to get back into the swing of things. We will kick things off with news on the Apple Pay front.
Walmart Waves the White Flag to Apple Pay
In a press release issued on August 21st, here’s Walmart:
“When we think about convenience, we think about a lot of things, but making shopping feel simpler and more seamless from start to finish is a big part. And one of the moments where that matters most is at checkout.
We want customers and members to have choice in how they pay, so they can check out in the way that works best for them. Now, beginning Aug. 24, we will be adding Tap to Pay to our payment options at select Walmart stores and Sam’s Club locations, with plans to roll it out to all U.S. stores and clubs by the end of 2026 and to fuel stations by mid-2027.
Tap to Pay gives customers and members another familiar and convenient way to pay at checkout using contactless payment methods. Whether picking up groceries, gifts or everyday essentials, they can check out using eligible contactless card, phone, or smartwatch. Customers and members can also add their eligible Walmart, Sam's Club and OnePay cards to their digital wallets, giving them another convenient way to use their cards.”
Since Walmart is accepting contactless payments, Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay will be supported. However, with Apple Pay usage far exceeding Google Pay and Samsung Pay usage, Walmart’s decision is ultimately about Apple Pay. And it’s fair to label this news as Walmart officially losing the battle it had been waging against Apple Pay for the past decade.
This news did not generate anywhere near the amount of press that it would have years ago as Apple Pay has already won in the marketplace. Walmart was the general refusing to wave the white flag despite being surrounded by the enemy army.
Walmart’s anti-Apple Pay stance has long come across as a retailer sticking its head in the sand, oblivious to what its customers have been demanding in terms of payment solutions. It is comical how Walmart is only now talking
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MLB Coming to Apple Immersive, Apple Upgrade & Apple Vision Pro?, Google’s Ask Maps Gets Agentic Food Ordering
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
MLB Coming to Apple Immersive
Apple Upgrade & Apple Vision Pro?
Google’s Ask Maps Gets Agentic Food Ordering
We kick off with Neil’s thoughts regarding Apple announcing “Friday Night Baseball” coming to Apple Immersive on Apple Vision Pro. The update then turns to a thought experiment involving Apple Upgrade and Apple Vision Pro. We conclude in digital mapping land and Google announcing agentic food ordering within Google Maps. When it comes to agentic AI in mapping, two issues stand out to me (both are on display with Ask Maps).
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 3Q26 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.
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Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: A Capital Efficiency Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: A Capital Efficiency Story
On Monday, we talked about Apple’s revenue outlook heading into FY27. iPhone upgrading dynamics will play a big role in what continues to look like a good setup heading into next year.
Yesterday, we discussed Apple’s margin outlook. Compared to revenue, Apple’s margin picture faces greater pressure. FX, supply constraints, and memory will weigh on gross margins in FY27. Instead of FY27 representing the beginning of a structural decline in margins, my thinking is Apple sees something of an air pocket since FY26 was a very good year for gross margins.
For today’s update, we will focus on an Apple financial topic that probably still doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves: Apple’s capital picture, including balance sheet management. Following Apple’s 3Q26 results, there are some new takeaways to discuss.
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Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The Battle for Continued Margin Improvement
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The Battle for Continued Margin Improvement
We will continue our Apple 3Q26 earnings review with a closer look at the dynamics surrounding the company’s gross margins heading into FY2027.
This update is available for subscribers. To continue reading, click here.
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An audio version of this update is available to subscribers who have the Podcasts Package (+$10/month or +$100/year) attached to their Above Avalon Daily subscription.
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The iPhone Is (Still) Being Underestimated
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The iPhone Is (Still) Being Underestimated
Last Friday, we began reviewing Apple's 3Q26 earnings. We will continue our Apple earnings discussion this week. Today’s update begins with how Apple’s 3Q26 results and 4Q26 guidance compared to Neil’s expectations. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks consensus is still underestimating the iPhone. The update goes over Neil’s iPhone estimates for FY2027 and where the most likely source of upside to his iPhone estimates is found.
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An audio version of this update is available to subscribers who have the Podcasts Package (+$10/month or +$100/year) attached to their Above Avalon Daily subscription.