Fitbit Earnings, 4Q18 Smartwatch Sales, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Fitbit Earnings

  • 4Q18 Smartwatch Sales

  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today’s update with Fitbit’s 4Q18 earnings. We go over the major takeaways from Fitbit’s earnings release and conference call. The discussion then turns to overall 4Q18 smartwatch sales. We go over my smartwatch unit sales and revenue estimates for Apple, Fitbit, Fossil, Garmin, Samsung, and Huawei. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Apple's operating margin, as a percentage of revenue, has been declining. Do you have any concerns or thoughts about this?

  • Will Apple create a foldable iPhone? Will Apple create a dual-screen Mac? What are you assumptions around each and how far out may they be?

  • Apple management claims approximately half of Mac and iPad buyers are new users. Does 50% seem high to you?

  • What do you think are the real opportunities that Apple may have missed? Which missed opportunities pose as potential risks?

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