Thoughts on Apple TV, Jony Ive on Reinventing the Pencil
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Apple TV
- Jony Ive on Reinventing the Pencil
We kick things off today with Apple TV. There is no denying it is a different kind of Apple product. While there are a number of noteworthy and intriguing features found in the latest product, the category's fundamental value is likely found elsewhere. In some respects, the Apple TV is a trojan horse wrapped in an App Store. We then shift over to one of the more interesting interviews given on iPad Pro/Apple Pencil, courtesy of Jony Ive and the website Wallpaper. We take a closer look at how Apple is positioning the Apple Pencil in relation to the broader theme of touch-based computing.
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Breaking Down the iPad Debate, Rdio Declares Bankruptcy
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Breaking Down the iPad Debate
- Rdio Declares Bankruptcy
We begin today's email by taking a deep dive into this unfolding iPad debate. Tim Cook seemed to go back on some of his earlier comments about the iPad Pro replacing PCs. We take a closer look at the two ongoing debates concerning the iPad within Apple, one of which involves the Mac, the other which concerns iPhone. We then shift over to news that Rdio filed for bankruptcy and lined up Pandora to buy some of its assets. This development says a lot about the current state of the music streaming market and Apple's ultimate goal with music.
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Initial iPad Pro Impressions, Fossil Acquires Misfit
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Initial iPad Pro Impressions
- Fossil Acquires Misfit
We kick things off with a closer look at the iPad Pro. I have been using the device since last week and have a number of impressions and takeaways. While some aspects of the device surprised me, other parts gave me even more confidence in long-standing views on the iPad category. We then shift over to the first large-scale wrist wearable M&A transaction: Fossil acquiring Misfit. Fossil reported earnings last week, and things aren't going so well with management indirectly blaming one company: Apple. We go over what is happening to Fossil and thoughts on the acquisition.
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Angela Ahrendts Talks Apple Retail Strategy as Store Traffic Slows, Apple Is Working on a Person-to-Person Mobile Payments Service, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Angela Ahrendts Talks Apple Retail Strategy as Store Traffic Slows
- Apple Is Working on a Person-to-Person Mobile Payments Service
- Thursday Q&A: Where Do TAG Heuer/Luxury Watchmakers Go From Here?
We kick off today's email by looking at Apple Retail and specifically Angela Ahrendts' recent comments about long-term Apple Retail strategy. We look at Apple Retail foot traffic patterns to get a better grasp on Apple's current challenges and opportunities in the retail space. We then shift over to the WSJ scoop that Apple is working on a person-to-person mobile payments service. There are a number of things to consider about such a service. We conclude with this week's Thursday Q&A and TAG Heuer's next step.
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About These iPhone Order Cut Rumors..., A New Apple Medical Product?
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- About These iPhone Order Cut Rumors...
- A New Apple Medical Product?
We begin today's email by taking a deep dive into these iPhone order cut rumors that continue to spread on Wall Street. I've been getting an increasing number of questions about the topic as well. We go over what is being said and my overall thoughts on the situation. We then shift to one comment made by Tim Cook in a recent press interview about Apple possibly selling a new health product that may require FDA approval. We take a closer look at what I suspect that product may be and why it would need FDA approval.
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Tim Cook Positions iPad Pro as the iPad for Post-PC Era, The TAG Heuer Connected Smartwatch Press Conference Circus
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tim Cook Positions iPad Pro as the iPad for Post-PC Era
- The TAG Heuer Connected Smartwatch Press Conference Circus
This is shaping up to be quite a busy week with iPad Pro going on sale this Wednesday. We will kick off today's email with Tim Cook's interviews with The Telegraph and the Independent. There are a number of things that jumped out at me from the interviews concerning the iPad Pro and the post-PC era. We will then shift over to discuss TAG Heuer's smartwatch press conference yesterday in Manhattan. It was...unique.
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Toyota Throws in the Towel: Invests "Big" in Autonomous Driving, Current iPad Device Share
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Toyota Throws in the Towel: Invests "Big" in Autonomous Driving
- Current iPad Device Share
We kick off a new week by talking Toyota and news that the automaker is opening a large Silicon Valley R&D center for autonomous driving among other things. Upon closer examination, Toyota provides a prime example of the trouble that will come to plague many of the legacy automakers in the coming years. The juxtaposition of Toyota to startups like Tesla and Project Titan are noteworthy. We then shift to iPad and look at new data highlighting the current iPad device share mix.
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Marc Newson on Apple Watch, New Details on Global Smartphone Market, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Marc Newson on Apple Watch
- New Details on Global Smartphone Market
- Thursday Q&A (questions from members): What do I make of the Gazelle sale?, What did Tim Cook mean when he said "The iPad is the clearest expression of our vision of the future of personal computing"?
We begin today's email by going over an interview Marc Newson gave to the Australian Financial Review. He had a few comments about Apple Watch that caught my attention. We then shift over to Kantar's latest smartphone report and discuss some interesting data points about the iOS (and Android) platforms. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and questions about Gazelle selling for $18M and Tim Cook's recent comments about the iPad.
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Apple Experimenting With iPhone and Apple Watch Bundling, Apple's Remarkable R&D Growth
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Experimenting With iPhone and Apple Watch Bundling
- Apple's Remarkable R&D Growth
We kick things off today by discussing recent news of Apple discounting the Apple Watch in a very few Apple Retail stores. As expected, there are many conspiracy theories as to what this may mean, but we will break it down and look at the most likely reasoning behind the promotion. We then shift over to a major takeaway from Apple's recent earnings report: R&D. We discuss why Apple's R&D trends seem to differ from other large cap tech and what it may mean for the Apple pipeline.
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Fitbit Earnings, GoPro Earnings (and Problem), Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow (Continued)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Earnings
- GoPro Earnings (and Problem)
- Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow (continued)
Today we will cover Fitbit's 3Q15 earnings report, which was released yesterday. On a unit sales basis, Fitbit is the leader of the wearable space. However, there are still questions surrounding the company's future and its impact on Apple Watch. We then look at GoPro's difficult earnings report from last week and a few implications that it may have for Apple. We also discuss the never-ending stories about Apple acquiring GoPro. We conclude with two additional thoughts on Apple's buyback program.
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Measuring iPhone Growth Potential in China, Notes and Observations from Apple's 2015 10-K
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Measuring iPhone Growth Potential in China
- Notes and Observations from Apple's 2015 10-K
We kick things off by looking at Apple's growth potential in China. One recurring theme found in Apple's earnings calls has been the growing middle and upper class in China. We take a look at the latest 2G, 3G, and 4G customer trends to see how far along the curve we are in terms of growth potential. We conclude by taking these observations and applying them to iPhone sales estimates in China. Next, we discuss Apple's recent 10-K filed last week, including a few observations about some of the more granular Apple financial trends.
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The Apple/Mashable Article: Phil Schiller, John Ternus, Apple Suppliers, Apple Earnings Calls, Growth on Wall Street
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Insights from the Phil Schiller/Mashable Interview
- Thursday Q&A (questions sent in by Above Avalon members)
We begin today's email by discussing the big Phil Schiller/Mashable interview published yesterday. There were three subtopics found in the piece that I haven't seen much focus put on but which can turn into key topics in the future. We then shift to Thursday Q&A and take a look at how Apple's earnings calls work and why some analysts aren't pleased with Apple's guidance. Next week, we will begin to go deeper into a few financial trends seen in Apple's earnings and overall business.
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Apple 4Q15 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon story:
- Apple 4Q15 Earnings
The email is broken into three sections: primary takeaways (there are five - a few good ones, a few not so good ones), an early read on 1Q16 and 2016 trends, and my complete conference call notes.
- Primary Takeaways
- iPhone Upgrade Program: A Big Deal
- Apple News: A Bellwether
- Apple Watch: Ready for a Surprise?
- iPad: Ouch
- Share Buyback: Betting Big
- An Early Read on 1Q16 and 2016 Results
- Complete Earnings Call Notes
Wall Street had two primary near-term concerns for Apple: a weakening economy in China and slowing iPhone sales growth. Apple's strong 4Q15 results likely put to rest concerns about a slowdown in China (for now). However, there will continue to be questions as to whether Apple will be able to grow iPhone unit shipments in FY2016. Management reiterated the view that the combination of new users to iPhone, along with current iPhone owners upgrading to a newer device, will contribute to growth in iPhone shipments in 1Q16. However, there is no denying that iPhone sales growth is slowing dramatically. Instead of blaming this slowdown on economic issues, competition, or a lack of customer interest in 6s and 6s Plus, the most likely culprit is difficult year-over-year comparisons as China Mobile was still beginning to sell the iPhone for most of 2014 and 2015.
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The Inside Story of the Surface Book, Steve Ballmer Thinks It's Now Just Apple vs. Microsoft, Where Is Angela Ahrendts? The NYT Wants to Know
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Inside Story of the Surface Book
- Steve Ballmer Thinks It's Now Just Apple vs. Microsoft
- Where Is Angela Ahrendts? The NYT Wants to Know
Tomorrow's email will be dedicated to Apple earnings. Today, we take a look at Wired's fascinating piece on the Microsoft Surface Book. Apple was a clear subject throughout the article. Next, we shift over to recent comments made by Steve Ballmer on Apple and Microsoft and why he thinks no one else matters these days. We conclude with The NYT wanting to know where Angela Ahrednts has been.
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Things to Look out for with Apple Earnings, Apple Expands Autonomous Driving Team
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Things to Look out for with Apple Earnings
- Apple Expands Autonomous Driving Team
We kick off today's email by concluding our AAPL 4Q15 preview. The markets find themselves in a transitory phase as optimism has returned with the latest round of tech earnings. AAPL is now up 9% this past month despite continued fears around FY2016 iPhone sales. We go over what I will be looking for on the earnings call and why recent fears around iPhone have been months in the making. We then shift to news that Apple hired a deep learning expert, which I attribute to Project Titan and an autonomous driving initiative. There are a few rather obvious clues to support my thesis that Apple is actually betting big on autonomous driving.
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