Apple's "Sound on the Go" Strategy, Android vs. iOS Loyalty, Bird Raises $100M
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple's "Sound on the Go" Strategy
- Android vs. iOS Loyalty
- Bird Raises $100M
Today's email kicks off with additional comments on Apple's strategy for controlling sound. In particular, we look at Apple's "sound on the go" strategy involving headphones. The discussion then turns to a new report regarding Android and iOS loyalty. We go over the relevant takeaways regarding retention, churn, and Android/iOS switching rates. The email concludes with my thoughts on Bird, the electric scooter ridesharing company that just raised $100M. We look at the company and the space from the perspective of Apple's interest in transportation.
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Samsung Galaxy S9 Orders Underperforming, Misplaced Demand Fears for High-End Smartphones, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Samsung Galaxy S9 Orders Underperforming
- Misplaced Demand Fears for High-End Smartphones
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Samsung Galaxy S9 orders reportedly coming in very weak. The discussion then turns to the developing narrative around smartphone manufacturers making a mistake running up market with higher-priced and more feature-packed smartphones. There is good reason to doubt such a narrative. The email concludes with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon subscribers:
- Do I consider Apple TV to be a successful Apple product?
- How do we gauge an Apple product's success when it's likely that no future product will be like the iPhone?
- Do I think there will come a time when Apple will develop Pad OS and Phone OS to differentiate?
- Where are the Macs running ARM-based Apple-designed CPUs?
- How much does Jony Ive and the design team think about voice interfaces when they are making a product?
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Garmin 4Q17 Wearables Sales, A Shrinking Fitness Tracker Market, Deep Dive into 4Q17 Wearables Market
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Garmin 4Q17 Wearables Sales
- A Shrinking Fitness Tracker Market
- Deep Dive into 4Q17 Wearables Market
Today's email has a wearables theme. We begin with a look at Garmin's 4Q17 earnings and my estimate for the company's wearables sales. The discussion then turns to two takeaways from dedicated fitness trackers hitting a sales ceiling in the marketplace. The email concludes with my thoughts on the overall wearables market this past holiday season. We go over my unit sales and revenue estimates for the major wearables players in order to derive Apple Watch market share and revenue share.
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The WSJ's Refurbished iPhone Theory, Nokia Health (Withings) In Trouble, Thoughts on Nokia Health as an Apple Acquisition
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- The WSJ's Refurbished iPhone Theory
- Nokia Health (Withings) In Trouble
- Thoughts on Nokia Health as an Apple Acquisition
We kick off today's email by discussing the WSJ's claim that the growing popularity of refurbished iPhones represents a a problem for Apple. The discussion then turns to Nokia putting its health division into "strategic review." We look at the business (formed from Nokia's Withings acquisition) and then discuss whether or not it makes sense for Apple to acquire Nokia Health.
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Cannibalizing the iPad Even Further, Tim Cook Talks to Fast Company, Odd MacBook Air Rumors
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Cannibalizing the iPad Even Further
- Tim Cook Talks to Fast Company
- Odd MacBook Air Rumors
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "The iPhone's Turning Point." We go over how Apple's initial iPad sales pitch in 2010 ended up being about more than just iPad and how Apple is now facing those consequences. The discussion then turns to Tim Cook talking about Apple philosophy with Fast Company. We conclude with my thoughts on new reports/rumors indicating Apple will unveil a cheaper MacBook Air. There are a number of things found in the reports that don't sit well with me.
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Spotify Files to Go Public, Takeaways from Spotify User Data, Spotify's Path to Profitability
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Spotify Files to Go Public
- Takeaways from Spotify User Data
- Spotify's Path to Profitability
Today's email is dedicated to discussing Spotify's Form F-1 filing and the company's intention to go public. After going over the big picture and why I think Spotify is pursuing a direct listing, we take a closer look at Spotify's user data. The discussion then goes to my thoughts on Spotify's likely game plan and strategy to reach profitability.
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Intel's Vaunt Smart Glasses, Amazon Acquires Ring, Apple's Approach to the Home
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Intel's Vaunt Smart Glasses
- Amazon Acquires Ring
- Apple's Approach to the Home
Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Vaunt, Intel's prototype pair of smart glasses. The discussion then turns to Amazon acquiring Ring. We go over Amazon's motivation behind the deal and what it tells us about how Amazon views the home. The email concludes with an overview of Apple's approach to the home and whether it makes sense for Apple to acquire start-ups in the smart home space.
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Apple to Release Three New iPhones, Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing, Fitbit's Smartwatch Flopped
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple to Release Three New iPhones
- Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing
- Fitbit's Smartwatch Flopped
Today's email begins with my thoughts on Apple releasing three new flagship iPhones in 2018. We then go over my pricing projections for the flagship models and the rest of the iPhone line. The email concludes with a closer look at Fitbit's 4Q17 earnings.
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Estimating the iPhone Installed Base, Estimating the iPhone User Base, Samsung Unveils Galaxy S9 and S9+
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Estimating the iPhone Installed Base
- Estimating the iPhone User Base
- Samsung Unveils Galaxy S9 and S9+
Today's email begins with a few corollaries associated with last week's Above Avalon article regarding the iPhone's Goldilocks era. I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base at the end of December 2017. We also go over the differences between the two and why I think Apple will be able to grow the iPhone installed base over the next few years. The email concludes with my thoughts on Samsung's Galaxy S9 and S9+ set within the broader dynamic unfolding in the smartphone industry.
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The Goldilocks Era for iPhone, Apple's Lack of iPhone Visibility, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- The Goldilocks Era for iPhone
- Apple's Lack of iPhone Visibility
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "The Goldilocks Era for iPhone Has Begun." We specifically look at how this Goldilocks Era may be received on Wall Street. The discussion then turns to why I think Apple management has a credibility issue when it comes to talking about iPhone demand and the dynamic underpinning the iPhone upgrade cycle. The email concludes with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon subscribers:
- What does Apple management think AAPL shares are worth? What clues would suggest management thinks AAPL shares are fairly valued?
- How likely is it for Apple to acquire Magic Leap or Snapchat?
- Should Apple increase employee compensation in order to improve efficacy? How does Apple's share repurchase program impact employee wealth?
- What are my predictions for the next MacBook refresh?
- Why have reports about Apple Car subsided over the past year?
- Is it possible that Apple will do most of its autonomous driving research in China and not the U.S.?
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WSJ's Odd iPhone Story, Apple Plays a Different Game, Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- WSJ's Odd iPhone Story
- Apple Plays a Different Game
- Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company
Today's email begins with my thoughts on the WSJ's article about iPhone losing out in Asia to low-cost Chinese smartphone manufacturers. We then look at three smartphone industry data points that reveal the game Apple is actually playing in the smartphone industry. The email concludes with why I don't think Apple is an ecosystem company. Calls for Apple to launch some kind of "Apple as a service" subscription tied to the Apple ecosystem are off the mark.
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Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales, Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction, Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales
- Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction
- Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q
Today's email begins with my estimates for Microsoft Surface unit sales over the holidays. We then discuss my thoughts on Surface as an iPad/Mac competitor. Next, we turn to Fossil's 4Q17 earnings. We go over my estimates for Fossil smartwatch sales over the holidays and how the company is seeing some minor traction in wrist wearables land. The email concludes with my notes from Apple's 10-Q for 1Q18.
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HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture, Apple's Obligation to Customers, Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture
- Apple's Obligation to Customers
- Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake
Today's email begins with my thoughts on HomePod leaving white rings on some wooden surfaces. There are aspects to this story that just don't sit well with me. We then discuss Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) increasing its Apple stake during 4Q17. We look at Buffett's AAPL purchases over the past two years and I share a few additional observations regarding the news.
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Apple Delays iOS 12 Features, iOS Development Timeline Changes, A Tug-of-War Within Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple Delays iOS 12 Features
- iOS Development Timeline Changes
- A Tug-of-War Within Apple
Today's email is dedicated to discussing Apple software potentially becoming a crack in the Apple machine. We look at recent reports about iOS 12 features being delayed and changes made to the way iOS development is handled. We then investigate what I think is the root of the problem.
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Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing, Apple Slows Down Debt Buying, Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing
- Apple Slows Down Debt Buying
- Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch
We begin with reports that Goldman Sachs is in talks with Apple regarding product financing opportunities. I dispel a few rumors attached to the story. The discussion then shifts to Apple beginning to prep its investment portfolio for major changes related to returning excess cash to shareholders. The email concludes with a discussion of Google's plans to embrace the iPhone X notch and why Android OEMs are ready to go all-in on the notch.
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