Fitbit Earnings, Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Fitbit Earnings
Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email in wrist wearables land and conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
How concerned should Apple be about disruption from foldable screen technology?
Why was the 12-inch MacBook not discontinued? Why is the MacBook Pro without Touch Bar still in the lineup?
Will iPad Pro eventually take the place of MacBook Pro in Apple’s lineup?
Apple didn’t mention Intel when talking about the new Mac products last week. Is there anything important to read into that?
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Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro, The iPad Pro Reviews, Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro
The iPad Pro Reviews
Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
The email begins with going over three interesting things Jony had to say about the iPad Pro’s design. We then turn to iPad Pro reviews, covering the major themes found in the various reviews. This brings us to the difference between a product being a laptop replacement versus a laptop alternative. The discussion adds clarity to what continues to be a polarizing iPad vs. laptop debate in tech circles.
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Apple 2018 10-K Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes my key takeaways from Apple's annual 10-K filing for 2018. We cover 13 financial topics.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 4Q18 earnings review. Last Friday’s email was focused on the major themes from earnings (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 23 different topics.
My full Apple 4Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 4Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The email includes the following sections:
4Q18 Results vs. My Expectations
Apple’s Unit Sales Disclosure Bomb
The Gray Market Factor Is Real
Apple Growth Levers
Conservative 1Q19 Guidance
The second half of my earnings review we be sent to members on Monday.
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Apple's NYC Event Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple NYC event review. We go over my full notes from the event. We cover 31 different topics.
The first half of my event review (major themes) is available here.
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Apple's NYC Event Review (Major Themes)
Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over some of the major themes from yesterday’s event in NYC.
The email includes the following sections:
Attending the Event / The Audience / The Venue
MacBook Air and Mac mini
iPad Pro
iPad vs. Mac
No Headphones
The second half of the review (full notes) is available here.
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Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
The email is dedicated to going over my thoughts and expectations ahead of Apple's big product event in NYC tomorrow. The discussion revolves around Apple’s business and pricing strategies for a number of Apple product categories.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts), Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's email concludes my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We look at my 1Q19 revenue guidance projections and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership.) We then go over my final thoughts heading into earnings next week.
The first two parts of my 4Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates).
The email concludes with a deep dive into Tesla’s 3Q18 earnings.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's email continues my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates.
The other parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and and here (1Q19 guidance, updated Apple earnings model, final thoughts).
My full Apple 4Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage), A New Tailwind for iPhone ASP, Jony Ive Is Hinting at Something Big
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
A New Tailwind for iPhone ASP
Jony Ive Is Hinting at Something Big
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings.
The second and third parts of my 4Q18 earnings preview are available: here (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates) and here (1Q19 guidance, updated Apple earnings model, final thoughts).
The email then turns to my recent weekly article, "The Gray Market's Impact on iPhone Pricing." In particular, we go over my revised thinking regarding iPhone ASP trends. The discussion concludes with my thoughts on Jony Ive’s recent interview with FT and how he continues to hint at something big unfolding at Apple.
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Tim Cook Goes After Bloomberg, Apple Leases Huge Manufacturing Building near Apple Park
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Tim Cook Goes After Bloomberg
Apple Leases Huge Manufacturing Building near Apple Park
The email kicks off with Tim Cook calling for Bloomberg to retract its Chinese hardware hacking story. We go over how this latest development shines light on how Cook is leading Apple. The discussion then turns to Apple’s latest real estate move. We go over my theory as to why Apple purchased 314,000 square feet of industrial manufacturing space near Apple Park.
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Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales, App Store FY4Q18 Trends, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales
App Store FY4Q18 Trends
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on early iPhone XS and XS Max sales. The discussion then turns to the most recent App Store revenue trends. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do you think there will be longer lines at Apple stores for iPhone XR vs. iPhone XS / XS Max?
Will Apple work out deals to position third-party content alongside its original video content?
What kind of "family friendly" content do you think Apple will pursue for their own video / TV productions? Is there a certain content niche here for Apple?
How representative are Shazam's AR efforts for future Apple AR use cases?
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Netflix 3Q18 Earnings, Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers, Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Netflix 3Q18 Earnings
Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers
Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal
The email kicks off with Netflix 3Q18 earnings. We go over the most important takeaways from the financials, shareholder letter, and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to iOS 12 and we go over my estimates for the absolute number of iOS devices running iOS 12 and the number of iOS devices in the wild that were introduced before 2014. The email concludes with Facebook revising its data collection stance with Portal and why the entire situation is a complete mess for the company.
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Jony Ive on Human Connection, Jony’s Power Within Apple, Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive on Human Connection
Jony’s Power Within Apple
Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX
The email kicks off with my thoughts on Jony Ive’s talk at Wired’s 25th anniversary event in San Francisco. Jony was interviewed by Anna Wintour. The discussion then turns to Jony’s future at Apple and my stance on power within Apple. The email concludes with Photoshop coming to iPad Pro and Apple SVP Phil Schiller going on stage at Adobe MAX. Schiller had some interesting comments to say about the iPad’s role within Apple’s product line.
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