WSJ Supports iPhone Order Cut Explanation, Additional Thoughts on iPhone Order Cuts, Sonos Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
WSJ Supports iPhone Order Cut Explanation
Additional Thoughts on iPhone Order Cuts
Sonos Earnings
In today’s update, we continue our discussion regarding possible iPhone order cuts. In particular, we go over whether the WSJ’s iPhone order cut claims are plausible. We also discuss a few other big picture thoughts regarding iPhone demand. The email concludes with a look at Sonos earnings.
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Apple Unit Sales Became a Crutch, Apple Unwraps Custom Silicon Strategy, Netflix’s Tug-of-War
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Unit Sales Became a Crutch
Apple Unwraps Custom Silicon Strategy
Netflix’s Tug-of-War
We jump into today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Apple Outgrew Unit Sales.” In particular, we go over why I think Wall Street fell in love with unit sales data. The discussion then turns to Apple management shining light on its custom silicon strategy and its broader place within Apple’s product development process. We conclude with my thoughts on a recent Netflix profile by the WSJ. There are signs of Netflix’s culture changing. We look at the change and what it may mean for the broader video space.
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Disney's Video Strategy Update, An iPhone Slump?, A Possible iPhone Explanation
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Disney's Video Strategy Update
An iPhone Slump?
A Possible iPhone Explanation
We jump into today’s update with Disney earnings and then conclude with the market’s ongoing concerns with iPhone demand. Disney CEO Bob Iger spent much of Disney’s earnings call discussing the company’s video strategy. We go over the main takeaways and my thoughts on Disney’s positioning in the space. The discussion then turns to iPhone and we go over some possible scenarios that may explain what is behind these iPhone supply chain order cuts.
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Apple's 3D Laser Supplier Announces Order Cut, The Finisar Wild Card, Early Read on iPhone XR Sales
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple's 3D Laser Supplier Announces Order Cut
The Finisar Wild Card
Early Read on iPhone XR Sales
Today’s email will be focused on the latest developments regarding iPhone component order cuts and questions surrounding iPhone demand. We begin with Lumentum, an Apple supplier, slashing guidance due to receiving a very large order cut. The discussion then turns to why I think Finisar, another Apple supplier, should be part of the debate regarding Lumentum. The email concludes with a look at the latest iPhone adoption trends.
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Spotify 3Q18 Earnings, Estimating 3Q18 Microsoft Surface Unit Sales, Previewing Black Friday Promotions
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Spotify 3Q18 Earnings
Estimating 3Q18 Microsoft Surface Unit Sales
Previewing Black Friday Promotions
The email begins with Spotify earnings. We then turn to Microsoft earnings to estimate Surface unit sales during 3Q18. The discussion concludes with my thoughts on this year’s Black Friday sales for Apple and its peers. We go over the takeaways from the largest retailers’ Black Friday promotions.
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Fitbit Earnings, Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Fitbit Earnings
Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email in wrist wearables land and conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
How concerned should Apple be about disruption from foldable screen technology?
Why was the 12-inch MacBook not discontinued? Why is the MacBook Pro without Touch Bar still in the lineup?
Will iPad Pro eventually take the place of MacBook Pro in Apple’s lineup?
Apple didn’t mention Intel when talking about the new Mac products last week. Is there anything important to read into that?
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Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro, The iPad Pro Reviews, Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro
The iPad Pro Reviews
Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
The email begins with going over three interesting things Jony had to say about the iPad Pro’s design. We then turn to iPad Pro reviews, covering the major themes found in the various reviews. This brings us to the difference between a product being a laptop replacement versus a laptop alternative. The discussion adds clarity to what continues to be a polarizing iPad vs. laptop debate in tech circles.
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Apple 2018 10-K Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes my key takeaways from Apple's annual 10-K filing for 2018. We cover 13 financial topics.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 4Q18 earnings review. Last Friday’s email was focused on the major themes from earnings (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 23 different topics.
My full Apple 4Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 4Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The email includes the following sections:
4Q18 Results vs. My Expectations
Apple’s Unit Sales Disclosure Bomb
The Gray Market Factor Is Real
Apple Growth Levers
Conservative 1Q19 Guidance
The second half of my earnings review we be sent to members on Monday.
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Apple's NYC Event Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple NYC event review. We go over my full notes from the event. We cover 31 different topics.
The first half of my event review (major themes) is available here.
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Apple's NYC Event Review (Major Themes)
Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over some of the major themes from yesterday’s event in NYC.
The email includes the following sections:
Attending the Event / The Audience / The Venue
MacBook Air and Mac mini
iPad Pro
iPad vs. Mac
No Headphones
The second half of the review (full notes) is available here.
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Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
The email is dedicated to going over my thoughts and expectations ahead of Apple's big product event in NYC tomorrow. The discussion revolves around Apple’s business and pricing strategies for a number of Apple product categories.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts), Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's email concludes my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We look at my 1Q19 revenue guidance projections and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership.) We then go over my final thoughts heading into earnings next week.
The first two parts of my 4Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates).
The email concludes with a deep dive into Tesla’s 3Q18 earnings.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's email continues my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates.
The other parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and and here (1Q19 guidance, updated Apple earnings model, final thoughts).
My full Apple 4Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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