Thoughts on the U.S. v. Google Verdict (Part 2)
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Thoughts on the U.S. v. Google Verdict (Part 2)
We will continue to focus on the U.S. v. Google verdict. After reading through the 286-page ruling, my notes came out to about three updates worth of material. After a significant amount of reduction and editing, we used two updates to talk about the ruling and its potential fallout (with Apple in mind). Yesterday’s update went over all of the interesting details / tidbits from the ruling. Today’s update is focused on my thoughts on the ruling and how Apple may be impacted.
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Thoughts on the U.S. v. Google Verdict (Part 1)
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Thoughts on the U.S. v. Google Verdict (Part 1)
We are going to focus on the U.S. v. Google verdict. After reading through the 286-page ruling, my notes came out to about three updates worth of material. After a significant amount of reduction and editing, we are going to use two updates to talk about the ruling and its potential fallout (with Apple in mind).
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Apple 3Q24 10-Q Takeaways, A Few Interesting Tidbits About Apple’s Share Buyback, Apple’s Free Cash Flow Margin
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple 3Q24 10-Q Takeaways
A Few Interesting Tidbits About Apple’s Share Buyback
Apple’s Free Cash Flow Margin
Today’s update will wrap up Neil’s 3Q24 Apple earnings review. We will examine Apple’s 3Q24 10-Q and the latest balance sheet and cash flow trends.
Here is how our review went:
Aug 7th: Secondary themes and charts
Aug 8th: Earnings call Q&A examination
Today: 10-Q, buyback, free cash flow
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 3Q24 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.
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Apple’s 3Q24 in Three Charts
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple’s 3Q24 in Three Charts
Last Friday, we went over how Apple’s 3Q24 earnings compared to my expectations. Results came in close to my estimates. Nearly every line item beat (HW gross margin was the only thing that missed). We also discussed the largest takeaway from earnings: iPhone fundamentals continue to gradually improve and are becoming less of a drag on overall ecosystem growth.
For today’s update, we turn our attention to secondary themes from Apple’s earnings as shown via three financial charts.
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Buffett Slashes AAPL Stake in Half, What’s Really Going On?, Removing the Buffett Overhang
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Buffett Slashes AAPL Stake in Half
What’s Really Going On?
Removing the Buffett Overhang
Hello everyone. What a busy start to the week.
My initial thoughts on Apple’s earnings were sent to all you via email last Friday. We are going to take an unexpected detour to focus on Warren Buffett news that came out over the weekend. There is still much to talk about regarding Apple’s 3Q24 earnings release and conference call – we only touched upon the big picture takeaway. We will shift back to earnings review mode tomorrow.
Earlier today, a judge ruled against Google in the Google Search vs. U.S. trial. This was the trial that involved Google's default search deal with Apple. We will talk more about the development after I have had time to read through the 286-page ruling. For now, we can point back to the following daily updates regarding the topic:
October 11th, 2023 (U.S. vs. Google, Apple in the Crosshairs, Satya Nadella Cries Wolf)
October 16th, 2023 (Apple as a Search Trojan Horse, My Estimates for Google TAC Payments to Apple, Potential Court Impact on Apple Search Revenue)
Let’s jump in.
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Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings, The iPhone Is a Powder Keg
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings
The iPhone Is a Powder Keg
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. We will begin our Apple earnings review. The discussion will flow over into next week. Let's jump right in.
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My Granular Estimates for Apple 3Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
My Granular Estimates for Apple 3Q24 Earnings
We conclude my Apple 3Q24 earnings preview. Today’s discussion goes over my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q24. We also look at my revised 4Q24 estimates heading into Thursday and a quick cheatsheet for Apple’s earnings release.
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Setting the Stage for Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Setting the Stage for Apple’s 3Q24 Earnings
We will begin preparing for Apple's earnings. Today’s discussion will examine the broader environment surrounding Apple (and AAPL) ahead of Thursday’s earnings release. We will go over my granular estimates tomorrow.
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Spotify 2Q24 Earnings, Spotify vs. Apple Music
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Spotify 2Q24 Earnings
Spotify vs. Apple Music
This will be a busy week for earnings. We will begin preparing for Apple’s earnings release tomorrow. For today’s update, we focus on Spotify. It’s actually been nearly a year since we took a closer look at Spotify’s financial performance. The discussion goes over four factors that drove Spotify’s 2Q24, the big picture facing the company, and a key difference between Spotify and Apple Music.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple.
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Alphabet 2Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Alphabet 2Q24 Earnings
We examine Alphabet’s 2Q24 earnings release and conference call. Topics include generative AI’s impact on search, capex spending, Waymo, and YouTube growth.
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About the Apple TV+ Rumors, What’s Wrong With Apple TV+?, Apple’s Goal for Apple TV+
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
About the Apple TV+ Rumors
What’s Wrong With Apple TV+?
Apple’s Goal for Apple TV+
Today's update will cover the Apple TV+ rumors that have taken over social media. Did Apple cut Apple TV+ spending? Is Apple TV+ engagement not doing well? What may be going on? Let's discuss.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple.
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Netflix 2Q24 Earnings, Netflix Growth, Wall Street Giving Netflix Green Light to Spend
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Netflix 2Q24 Earnings
Netflix Growth
Wall Street Giving Netflix Green Light to Spend
There continues to be quite a bit of interest in what’s unfolding in video and music streaming. While Netflix (and Spotify) appear to be finding their strides, Apple's strategy is increasingly being drawn into question by the press and some users. There are various topics that we will discuss. For today, we will dissect Netflix's earnings.
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The CrowdStrike / Microsoft Outage Will Benefit Apple
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
The CrowdStrike / Microsoft Outage Will Benefit Apple
Today's update will be dedicated to discussing the CrowdStrike / Microsoft catastrophe which is still impacting the corporate world.
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Apple Looking to License Movies for Apple TV+, Warner Bros. Discovery Thinking of Splitting Itself, Skydance Merges With Paramount
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Looking to License Movies for Apple TV+
Warner Bros. Discovery Thinking of Splitting Itself
Skydance Merges With Paramount
Given a busy news flow, we are going to stay in video streaming land for one more update. We begin by going over a report pegging Apple as looking to license more movies for Apple TV+. The discussion then turns to Warner Bros. Discovery, Skydance, and Paramount.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.
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Member Privileges and Benefits
Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:
Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple.
Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).
Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.
Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.
Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries.
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Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.