Apple’s Modem Launch Reportedly Nears, Apple vs. Qualcomm, Apple’s Modem Goals
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple’s Modem Launch Reportedly Nears
Apple vs. Qualcomm
Apple’s Modem Goals
Hello everyone.
Above Avalon Gifts are back for the 2024 holiday season. This is the one time each year when various options are available for gifting an Above Avalon membership and the accompanying add-ons. There are six different one-time gifts available. Prices start at $90 for a three-month Above Avalon membership with podcast add-on. A regular 12-month membership for $200 is also available. Gifting an Above Avalon membership makes for a very unique gift, especially for that person who seemingly has everything. To purchase a gift, use this online form.
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For today’s update, we go over my thoughts on Bloomberg’s article regarding Apple’s modem plans.
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Jeff Bezos Focusing On AI at Amazon, Sundar Pichai Talks Woke Culture
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Jeff Bezos Focusing On AI at Amazon
Sundar Pichai Talks Woke Culture
Hello everyone.
We will wrap up the week with something a little bit different. Over the past nine and half years of daily updates, we have only talked about an interview that took place at the NYT Dealbook Summit in NYC once – in 2021 when Tim Cook (virtually) spoke. This year, Jeff Bezos and Sundar Pichai sat for interviews with Andrew Ross Sorkin. We will talk about both interviews in greater detail.
When it comes to this conference, personalities (Andrew Ross Sorkin) trump the organization (The New York Times) hosting the event. This plays a big role in explaining why companies that don’t receive fair treatment in news coverage by the NYT still participate in a conference put on by the NYT. My stance would be that Big Tech companies should give both the NYT and their conferences the cold shoulder but that’s me.
Let’s jump in.
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A Deep Dive Into Tim Cook’s “Big” Interview With Steven Levy
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
A Deep Dive Into Tim Cook’s “Big” Interview With Steven Levy
Happy Wednesday. Steven Levy, writing for WIRED, is out with a comprehensive interview with Tim Cook. Levy has been covering Apple for decades. He was one of the original iPhone reviewers in 2007. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing the interview.
Let’s jump right in.
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AAPL Hits All-Time High, AAPL Valuation Metrics, Observations on Big Tech Valuation
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
AAPL Hits All-Time High
AAPL Valuation Metrics
Observations on Big Tech Valuation
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on AAPL shares hitting all-time highs. The discussion will then turn to an examination of AAPL valuation metrics (forward P/E, EV/FCF, and free cash flow yield). In addition to looking at Apple’s valuation metrics, there is value found in taking a broader look at how Big Tech is trading from a valuation perspective. We will keep our focus to free cash flow / enterprise value. While there may not be one gold standard valuation metric that all market participants prioritize, free cash flow remains my go-to metric. The data removes much of the noise that is found with income statement line items.
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Apple’s 2024 Holiday Ad Goes Viral, Elon Musk Warming to Apple?
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple’s 2024 Holiday Ad Goes Viral
Elon Musk Warming to Apple?
Hello everyone. It feels good to be back into the full swing of things. Given the way the calendar falls this year, we only have three weeks of updates remaining in 2024. It feels like those three weeks are going to fly by.
Above Avalon Gifts 2024 will launch next week. This is the one time each year that you can select from a variety of options for gifting an Above Avalon membership to someone and have them be notified of the gift on a date of your choosing (i.e. December 24th or 25th). For this year, the gift window will be open for two weeks starting on December 9th. Stay tuned for more information on that front.
The member forum migration from Slack to Discord continues to go smoothly. It’s good to see active discussions in many of the channels. Here’s a screenshot of all the channels.
If you have never used Discord before, you can use this invite to get up and running in the forum.
Apple’s 2024 Holiday Ad Goes Viral
In what has become an annual tradition, Apple released its holiday video ad depicting how technology can positively impact our lives.
Over the years, some of the most memorable Apple holiday ads have involved children and teens using Apple to create (digital) gifts for their families. The 2013 ad may jump out at some of you – the one with what looked like disinterested teenager who was actually secretly recording a family video.
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Tim Cook in China for Third Time This Year, Trump Threatens 10% China Tariffs, Amazon Invests Another $4B in Anthropic
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Tim Cook in China for Third Time This Year
Trump Threatens 10% China Tariffs
Amazon Invests Another $4B in Anthropic
We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on Tim Cook’s third visit to China in 2024 and what appears to be political maneuvering and massaging tied to President Trump winning a second term. The discussion then turns to Trump threatening a 10% tariff put on Chinese goods. We conclude the update with Amazon putting more money in Anthropic.
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DOJ Provides Proposed Remedies for Google Antitrust, Indonesia Goes After Apple, Apple Selling Ads Directly on Apple News
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
DOJ Provides Proposed Remedies for Google Antitrust
Indonesia Goes After Apple
Apple Selling Ads Directly on Apple News
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on the U.S. Department of Justice’s proposed remedies for the Court to consider in its case against Google. The discussion then turns to Apple and Indonesia going back-and-forth on investment negotiations. The update concludes with Apple’s ads push on Apple News.
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Amazon Unveils New Echo Shows, The Smart Home, Apple Stationary Display Rumors
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Amazon Unveils New Echo Shows
The Smart Home
Apple Stationary Display Rumors
Happy Thursday. Today’s update will contain some good old-fashioned product strategy talk. We will begin with Amazon, then shift more broadly to the smart home, concluding with my thoughts on some Apple product rumors.
Let’s jump right in.
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Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads, The Controversy Surrounding the Ads, My Verdict
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads
The Controversy Surrounding the Ads
My Verdict
Hello everyone. We are going to shift back to talking product. Today’s update will be focused on Apple Intelligence ads, some of which are causing quite the stir online. The tentative plan for tomorrow is that we will talk screens in the home.
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Microsoft 3Q24 Earnings, Amazon 3Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Microsoft 3Q24 Earnings
Amazon 3Q24 Earnings
In today’s update, we will go over Microsoft and Amazon earnings.
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Meta 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Earnings Calls
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Meta 3Q24 Earnings
Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Numbers
Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Earnings Calls
Hello everyone. We will continue our Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings reviews with Meta. We will first go over my big picture overview. The discussion will then turn to over my takeaways from the earnings release and earnings conference call(s).
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Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Earnings Call
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings
Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Numbers
Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Earnings Call
Hello everyone.
We are going to try something new with Big Tech 3Q24 earnings reviews. After going over a very big picture overview of what each company reported, we will then discuss three takeaways from the numbers (i.e. the earnings release) and then three takeaways from the earnings conference call. Those call takeaways will probably end up having a more qualitative feel to them. A goal found with this approach is to emphasize the most important items from earnings versus just going through a running collection of observations with varying degrees of importance. We will see how this new format goes. Today’s update will be focused on Alphabet’s earnings.
One quick update to yesterday’s discussion. The following was mentioned:
“It's certainly possible that Apple’s top shareholders don’t mind the current dividend payout ratio and aren’t clamoring for Apple to pay a higher payout as it means they would be paying more in tax (there’s no tax associated directly with share buyback).”
Thank you to member Ravi for reaching out via email to remind me that there is a new 1% excise tax facing share buyback. While my commentary was strictly about taxes facing shareholders (there is no direct tax impact on shareholders related to buyback), Apple is liable for the 1% excise tax. At 1%, the tax is not significant enough to sway strategy or capital return preference.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
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Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model, Apple’s Excess Cash Position, Apple Buyback vs. Apple Dividends
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model
Apple’s Excess Cash Position
Apple Buyback vs. Apple Dividends
Hello everyone.
The initial plan was to begin going over Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings. There are a few new ideas worth trying out to get caught up quickly and efficiently. While we will still do that, a few incoming questions from members late yesterday led me to change the schedule around.
For the past two weeks, we have gone deep into Apple’s latest financial results. Yesterday, we went over everything share buyback. A somewhat simple question was raised. Is Apple doing the right thing?
The company is generating $100B+ of free cash flow per year and pouring it all into share buyback (and dividends). Is that the right strategy given where we are in the current generative AI / spatial computing environment?
It’s a worthy discussion to have in today’s update.
There are two topics in particular worth addressing:
Is Apple investing enough in its business?
Is Apple making the prudent decision with what is deemed excess cash?
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Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High, A “Shrinking” Apple
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High
A “Shrinking” Apple
Happy Tuesday. Today’s update will have a share buyback theme. While we received a few new buyback data points in Apple’s 2024 10-K, the discussion won’t be focused on just 4Q24 trends.
Let’s jump right in.
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My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q24 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2024. There are a few remaining comments to go over regarding Apple’s share buyback. We can do that tomorrow.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data. We will also use this opportunity to recap some of Apple’s financial totals for FY2024 and how they compared to prior years.
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