Trump Goes After Tim Cook, Apple’s PR Win, What’s the Solution?
Hello everyone. We get back into the swings of things with iPhone production, India, and President Trump going after Tim Cook. Let’s jump right in.
Trump Goes After Tim Cook
Here’s the WSJ:
“President Trump fired new salvos in the global trade war on Friday, threatening a 50% tariff on imported goods from the European Union and new duties on iPhones and other smartphones made overseas.
Trump said the EU had been ‘very difficult to deal with’ on trade in a Friday morning social-media post. Less than a half hour earlier, he threatened Apple and its chief executive, Tim Cook, with a tariff of at least 25% on iPhones made overseas.
‘I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,’ he wrote on Truth Social.
‘If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.,’ the president wrote.
Later on Friday, in Oval Office comments, Trump said those tariffs will include ‘Samsung and anybody that makes that product, otherwise it wouldn’t be fair.’ Trump appeared to be referring to companies that manufacture smartphones outside of the U.S. He added that the tariffs would likely be imposed in late June.”
The development that likely led to this latest battle was news of Apple ramping iPhone production in India. For an administration that has been pushing a narrative involving firms embracing U.S. manufacturing, reports of Apple increasing its bet on India for iPhone production likely didn’t go over well.
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OpenAI Buys Jony Ive's HW Startup, OpenAI’s First HW Product, Connecting the OpenAI HW Dots
Happy Thursday. We will dedicate a full update to the Jony Ive / OpenAI news. The update begins with a little bit of background on what Jony Ive has been up to since Apple. We will then talk about yesterday’s news, including what was quite the interesting announcement video put out by OpenAI, and what will likely be OpenAI’s first HW product.
Let’s jump in.
OpenAI Buys Jony Ive's HW Startup
Since leaving Apple in 2019, Jony has been running LoveFrom, a design consultancy he started with Marc Newson. LoveFrom, which poached a decent number of Apple employees, has a handful of high-profile clients including Airbnb and Ferrari. While the company has garnered some headlines here and there, the overall vibe has been very much a team of creatives quietly working behind the scenes on interesting projects and products.
In 2023, rumors began to circulate that Jony was working with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on AI devices. The rumors were surprising, to put it mildly, given the hoopla surrounding OpenAI. Last year, there were reports of Jony and former Apple designers starting a new HW company dedicated to working on AI devices with OpenAI. The company was seeking $1B in funding.
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My Thoughts on Google I/O 2025
Hello everyone. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing Google I/O. The company kicked off its annual developer conference yesterday. Let’s jump right in.
My Thoughts on Google I/O 2025
The overall message from Google’s I/O keynote (available to watch here) was that the world is adopting AI, and Gemini is Google’s primary AI vessel. Similar to last year, the company included a gag slide at the end of its nearly two-hour presentation that pointed out the number of times certain words were mentioned on stage. Gemini (95) beat AI (92). At last year’s I/O keynote, AI was said 121 times.
In pushing the “AI research is turning into reality” theme, Google gave quick updates regarding three Google DeepMind examples:
Project Starline. Rebranded as Google Beam, a “AI-first video communication platform” that turns 2D video into a 3D video stream. Google will partner with HW on the required HW for what looks to be enterprise solutions.
Project Astra. All about building a universal AI assistant that understands the world around us thanks to mobile (and eventually wearable) cameras.
Project Mariner. A web-browsing AI agent that acts on users’ behalf. Available to Google AI Ultra subscribers ($250/month).
In terms of broader product-focused sections or themes to the keynote, there were three (Google held a separate event for Android a few days earlier):
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Meta 1Q25 Earnings, Zuckerberg’s Five AI Opportunities, Meta is CoComelon for Adults
Hello everyone. We will use today’s update to circle back to Meta’s latest earnings report. The company reported earnings a few weeks ago. While Meta is the most direct competitor to Apple among Big Tech companies, there are some signs of the companies’ product paths, which have been getting closer to each other, potentially staying apart.
Meta 1Q25 Earnings
The big picture was very much intact with Meta’s 1Q25 earnings. Digital ads strength is more than offsetting atrocious losses in Reality Labs.
With 1Q25 revenue up 16% and costs up 9%, Meta’s operating margin grew to 41% from 38%. As previously disclosed, the company benefited from an “extension of server useful lives.” Said another way, depreciation wasn’t as bad as it otherwise would have been. Ad impressions were up 5% (primarily Asia-Pacific) while average price per ad was up 10%.
One additional point regarding expenses: Meta’s general and administrative expense fell by a whopping 34% year-over-year – a $1.2B drop – due to lower legal costs. That helped to offset more than half of the year-over-year increase in R&D (+22%).
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The WSJ’s Sketchy iPhone Pricing Article, Does Apple Need Higher iPhone Pricing?, Does iPhone 16e Provide Pricing Clues?
Happy Monday. We will jump into today's update with a recent story from the WSJ regarding iPhone pricing. Let's jump right in.
The WSJ’s Sketchy iPhone Pricing Article
Here’s the WSJ:
“Apple is weighing price increases for its fall iPhone lineup, a step it is seeking to couple with new features and design changes, according to people familiar with the matter.
The company is determined to avoid any scenario in which it appears to attribute price increases to U.S. tariffs on goods from China, where most Apple devices are assembled, the people said.
The U.S. and China agreed Monday to suspend most of the tariffs they had imposed on each other in a tit-for-tat trade war. But a 20% tariff that President Trump imposed early in his second term on Chinese goods, citing what he said was Beijing’s role in the fentanyl trade, remains in place and covers smartphones.
Trump had exempted smartphones and some other electronics products from a separate ‘reciprocal’ tariff on Chinese goods, which will temporarily fall to 10% from 125% under Monday’s trade deal.
New iPhones set to be released in the fall include some design and format changes, including an ultrathin design, The Wall Street Journal has reported.”
Nothing found in this article makes me think the WSJ knows what Apple may or may not do with this year’s new flagship iPhones. The WSJ’s “sources” in the supply chain are not going to know Apple’s iPhone pricing strategy. Apple pricing rumors should be discounted in general as Apple is able to keep pricing information under wraps.
For the past few years, price increases have been rumored ahead of Apple’s busy fall release cycle.
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Apple Unveils CarPlay Ultra, CarPlay Ultra vs. CarPlay, Revisiting CarPlay Strategy
Hello everyone. This may be the first time two updates were published on the same day. For a decent portion of you, it’s already Friday. Accordingly, let’s date this update May 16th.
With WWDC a few weeks away, Apple is sticking with the pattern used the past few years in announcing a few new features ahead of its developer conference. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing CarPlay Ultra.
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Notes From Apple 2Q25 10-Q, Apple Buyback Tidbits, Forecasting Apple’s Share Buyback Pace
Hello everyone. Although we concluded our Apple 2Q25 earnings review a few days ago, we still needed to quickly go over Apple’s 2Q25 10-Q filing. We will kick off today’s update with that filing. Our attention will then shift to Apple’s share buyback program.
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Apple Requests App Store Stay Motion, The Four-Prong Test, Apple’s Odds of Success
Hello everyone. Happy Tuesday.
Last week, Apple filed an emergency motion for a partial stay pending its appeal of the App Store anti-steering injunction ruling. In layman’s terms, Apple is asking the appeals court to temporarily halt some of Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers' App Store directives while Apple’s appeal works through the system. While the appeal will take at least six months to play out, this emergency motion should be addressed by the court this month.
Taking a step back from this motion, the broader App Store injunction ruling and the ongoing Google search antitrust case are weighing on Apple in terms of Wall Street (concerns regarding financial impact) and Main Street (concerns regarding customer experience impact). You can feel the angst in the air. Apple’s stay motion, if granted, will reduce some of that angst.
One quick note before jumping into today's update: I launched Above Avalon membership 10 years today. May 13th, 2015. Over the past 10 years, ~1,900 daily updates have been published. Today's daily podcast episode was the 850th episode. A big thank you to all members, especially those who have been with me since Day 1.
Let’s jump in.
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Eddy Cue Talks up AI Search, Google’s Response to Cue’s Testimony, Future of Search
Happy Monday. Yet again, we begin a new week with a lot of news.
Late last week, Apple filed its motion to stay related to the anti-steering rule. The filing is on my “will discuss” list for this week.
There is news regarding the U.S. and China reaching some sort of trade de-escalation in which U.S. tariffs on goods from China have been reduced from 145% to 30% for three months.
The WSJ is out with a report saying Apple is thinking about raising prices for new iPhones that will be unveiled later this year.
One quick note regarding Apple earnings: Our 2Q25 earnings review is pretty much complete. There may be time this week to quickly circle back to the 10-Q and a few buyback observations.
Today’s update will be focused on Eddy Cue’s testimony at the Google trial making waves. The Court is hearing testimony as part of the remedies phase for Google’s antitrust trial. Let’s jump right in.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Hello everyone. Today’s update will continue our Apple earnings review.
Here’s a recap of where things stand:
Last Friday: Overview / Apple’s results vs. my expectations.
Yesterday: Three sub-themes / charts arising from 2Q25 earnings.
Today: Reviewing the Q&A from Apple’s earnings call.
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 14th installment of reading between the lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Parekh”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Insider Monkey offers a written transcript here.
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Apple’s 2Q25 in Three Charts
We are going to change gears and return to discussing Apple’s 2Q25 earnings release. Today’s update will go over three themes, and corresponding charts, arising from Apple’s quarterly results.
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Judge Gonzalez Rogers’ App Store Pretzels, The Case for Apple’s Appeal, Potential App Store Fallout
Hello everyone. Happy Tuesday. There is a lot to go over in today’s update. We will continue our discussion from yesterday involving the latest App Store ruling from Judge Gonzalez Rogers.
The plan is to use Wednesday’s update to circle back to Apple’s 2Q25 earnings review.
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Apple Receives App Store Gut Punch in U.S., The Absurdity of It All, An App Store Dilemma
Hello everyone. Last Friday’s update was focused on Apple’s 2Q25 earnings. We will continue my earnings review later this week.
My full notes from last week's App Store anti-steering court ruling came out to about a week’s worth of updates. The 80-page ruling can be found here. Instead of spending four updates on the topic, my notes will be consolidated into two updates. For today, we are going to tackle a few major points that have been on my mind the past few days. Tomorrow’s update will discuss the points in greater detail. This is a crazy development that is up there as one of the more unusual turn of events that Apple has faced.
Let’s jump in.
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Thoughts on Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. Today's update will go over Apple's earnings.
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Previewing Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings
Hello everyone. The news flow isn't taking a break. The ongoing Epic Games vs. Apple legal battle in the U.S. took a sharp turn against Apple. There is a lot to discuss from the court ruling involving anti-steering. The timing for having that discussion isn't great though with Apple earnings on our doorstep.
Here's the game plan:
We will go forward as we were with preparing for and then reviewing Apple's earnings. In today’s update, we will preview the release. Apple plans to release earnings tomorrow (Thursday) after market close. The report usually comes out at 4:30 PM ET.
In order to go over Apple's earnings on a timely manner, Thursday's update will come out early Friday (ET).
We will talk about the ruling early next week (i.e. Monday). Depending on what Apple reports on Thursday, we will then circle back to reviewing earrings later next week.
Earlier today, Alphabet / Google CEO Sundar Pichai testified in court, as part of Google’s antitrust remedies phase, that Google hopes to integrate Gemini with Apple Intelligence (iPhones) in 2025. The timeline makes a WWDC unveiling possible. This disclosure comes at a good time as we just discussed in yesterday’s update why Google needs such integration.
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