Friday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Friday Q&A
Hello everyone. Here is a special Friday edition of Q&A. It’s been a while since we last did a Q&A. Based on the number of incoming questions, it’s probably a good idea to run an installment more often.
The update covered the following questions:
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs to be illegal does that mean the tariff cost Apple reported is the only cost that goes away (or gets refunded depending on the ruling), or is Apple also paying non-IEEPA tariffs?
Do you think Apple’s share price will be affected by an overall bubble in AI tech shares bursting? (Or a balloon deflating!)
What does Apple think its stock is worth?
What is your opinion regarding the possibility of Apple acquiring Curiosity Stream or licensing their contents?
When is Apple releasing an updated Apple TV 4K unit?
Why didn’t Apple didn’t see the need for core technologies to power AI features back in 2022 (like many other big tech companies)? When Apple did see it, why didn’t they place a big bet on developing their own LLM rapidly (like other big tech companies) to become independent?
Are you concerned by the continued poaching of Apple employees by Jony Ive / OpenAI?
Did Apple make a mistake cancelling Project Titan?
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Apple Talks TV Strategy, No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now), Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Talks TV Strategy
No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now)
Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Happy Thursday. Apple TV (Eddy Cue, Jamie Erlicht, Zack Van Amburg) was on the cover of Screen International’s November 2025 edition. This was the most informative interview to date in terms of Apple executives discussing Apple TV strategy. After going over key takeaways from the interview, we look specifically at Apple shooting down the suggestion that an ad tier is coming to Apple TV. We conclude with Neil’s estimates for the number of Apple TV subscribers, ARPU, and revenue, including five-year projections.
Tomorrow’s update will be a special Friday Q&A edition. This is an opportunity to submit questions that you would like answered in a daily update. Questions can be about anything, including topics not previously covered in the updates. To submit a question, just reply to this email. You can also post your question in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Note: If you submitted a question within the past week via email, I have them. There is no need to re-send.
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Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket, A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations, The Larger Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket
A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations
The Larger Story
Hello everyone. Yesterday, Apple unveiled iPhone Pocket which is being positioned as a fashion accessory serving as an extra pocket for storing an iPhone, pair of AirPods etc. The product, developed via an Issey Miyake / Apple collaboration, grabbed a surprising amount of press on social media with quite a bit of the reaction tending down the path of mockery / amusement.
There are times when one can learn a surprising amount from the small things. iPhone Pocket feels like one of those “small things.” Accordingly, we are going to dedicate today’s update to talking about what may end up being the least expected product Apple will unveil in 2025. There are larger topics and trends that can be pulled from an accessory like iPhone Pocket being unveiled. Let’s jump in.
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Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri, The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini, Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri
The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini
Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Hello everyone.
The good news is that we wrapped up our Apple 4Q25 earnings review, leaving no (financial) stone unturned. If you missed any of the updates, you can check them out via the archive. We will now focus our attention on news and developments that occurred while we were focused on Apple earnings.
Today's update will take us into Siri land.
Let’s jump in.
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My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q25 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2025. There are a few remaining topics, such as share buyback and free cash flow, that we will also cover.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Happy Wednesday everyone.
For today’s update, we will continue our Apple 4Q25 earnings review with the latest installment of Reading Between the Lines. This will be a substantial update which explains why it is being published a day later than expected. Instead of splitting it up into two or even three updates, it is being kept together in one large update. We will conclude the week tomorrow (Thursday) with a 10-K examination which will raise a few related financial topics.
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 16th installment of Reading Between the Lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
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Apple Device Upgrading Is Improving, Apple’s Underpenetrated Services Business
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Device Upgrading Is Improving
Apple’s Underpenetrated Services Business
Happy Monday. This past Friday’s update included my initial thoughts on Apple’s strong earnings and how my numbers compared to Apple’s results.
The following snippet was from Friday’s update:
“Apple’s financials are now showing the impact from management doubling down on its ecosystem via:
More frequent and substantial product updates (thanks in big part to Apple silicon). One way of getting existing users to [up]grade is launch new and exciting product updates that add genuine value to people’s workflows and lives.
Greater awareness on management’s part that Apple’s ecosystem is severely under-penetrated from a Services monetization standpoint. Apple’s AI strategy is flying under the radar with the company well-positioned to leverage its role as distributor of AI-infused apps and services to an ecosystem of 1.5B+ premium users.”
There’s much to unpack from that snippet regarding two of the major takeaways from Apple’s earnings: Improving Apple device upgrading trends and Apple's Services growth potential.
Let's jump right in.
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My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings, How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings
How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Halloween edition of the Above Avalon Daily. While there may be some scary displays this evening trick-or-treating, Apple’s earnings release and call were the opposite of frightening. Let’s discuss. Today’s update will begin our Apple earnings review.
We will kick things off with my initial reaction to earnings. The second half of the update will go over the key numbers.
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My Apple 4Q25 Estimates, Above Avalon Expectation Meter (4Q25 Edition)
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
My Apple 4Q25 Estimates
Above Avalon Expectation Meter (4Q25 Edition)
Hello everyone. Apple will release earnings at 4:30 pm ET. There will be an update published tomorrow (Friday).
Today’s update will include the second half of our earnings preview. The first half is available here.
My updated Apple earnings model (works with Excel and Numbers) is now available to those who subscribe to Above Avalon Models. To access the models, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here). Once signed in, go to the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized page where the model can be downloaded. If you are interested in Above Avalon Models, learn more here.
Let’s jump in.
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Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings, iPhone’s Supply/Demand Imbalance, Apple Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings
iPhone’s Supply/Demand Imbalance
Apple Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Hello everyone. We are going to shift gears and focus on Apple’s upcoming earnings report. Apple will report earnings on Thursday. The next two updates will be dedicated to preparing for Apple’s earnings. My hope is to get the next update out later today.
Let’s begin our Apple 4Q25 preview.
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Let’s Talk About These iPhone Air Demand Rumors
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Let’s Talk About These iPhone Air Demand Rumors
Hello everyone. While Apple’s updated products (with M5) grabbed quite a bit of attention last week, another storyline that led to plenty of discussion was found with the iPhone Air. Reports and rumors painted the picture of a product not meeting Apple’s expectations in the marketplace. This led some Apple rumor sites to go so far as to say the iPhone Air bet failed. There’s a lot to unpack. Let’s discuss.
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Examining Eddy Cue’s Media Blitz
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Examining Eddy Cue’s Media Blitz
Happy Friday. Over the past few months, Apple SVP Services Eddy Cue has sat down for a decent number of media interviews. Cue is one of the most influential and powerful executives within Apple (among the top three). Over the summer, the “F1 The Movie” release required Apple to go on the PR offensive. More recent interviews have been aimed at drawing attention to some of Apple’s services, like Apple Music Classical, in addition to Apple’s sports play and broader ambitions found with Apple TV (recently rebranded from Apple TV+). Today’s update will be dedicated to going over the most important takeaways from the interviews.
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My Initial Impressions Using Apple Vision Pro (M5), The Dual Knit Band Is the Real Deal, Apple Vision Pro Is a Window to the World
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
My Initial Impressions Using Apple Vision Pro (M5)
The Dual Knit Band Is the Real Deal
Apple Vision Pro Is a Window to the World
For the past week, I’ve been using an Apple Vision Pro (M5). Today’s update will be dedicated to talking about the product. We begin with my initial impressions regarding both the headset and Apple’s new Dual Loop Band. The discussion then turns to answering a question that has been swirling in my head for the past 2.5 years: Why does Apple Vision Pro exist? Based on social media, there continues to be a good amount of confusion regarding the answer.
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Apple Rebrands Apple TV+, Reading Between the (Apple TV+ Rebranding) Lines, Crunching Some Numbers for Apple's Sports Spending
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Rebrands Apple TV+
Reading Between the (Apple TV+ Rebranding) Lines
Crunching Some Numbers for Apple's Sports Spending
Hello everyone. This is going to be one of those weeks in which the schedule is a bit all over the place. For the past few days, I’ve been using and testing the updated Apple Vision Pro (M5) and iPad Pro (M5). This has required me to shift a few things around.
The game plan for today is to continue the Apple/sports discussion that was found in Monday’s update. We will begin today’s discussion though with Apple rebranding Apple TV+. The next update will then take a detour to discuss Apple Vision Pro (M5). There is a good amount to discuss about that product. If all goes according to plan, we will then wrap up the week in a few days with a closer look at Eddy Cue’s press bonanza.
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Apple Wins Formula 1 Rights, Apple / Formula 1 Deal Terms, Apple’s Sports Bet Grows
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Wins Formula 1 Rights
Apple / Formula 1 Deal Terms
Apple’s Sports Bet Grows
Hello everyone. We will begin a new week of updates with some big Apple news on the sports front. The discussion will roll into Tuesday as we examine new comments from Apple SVP Eddy Cue who has been doing a fair amount of press in recent months.
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