Apple Reaccelerates Share Buyback, Apple’s Stellar Free Cash Flow, Takeaways From Apple’s 1Q26 10-Q
We will continue our Apple 1Q26 earnings review by turning to Apple’s capital management, balance sheet, and 10-Q.
For those of you who are new to the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, our goal for each Apple earnings review is to not leave any financial stone unturned. After today’s email, there will likely be one additional update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings before moving on to other topics.
Let’s jump right in.
Apple Reaccelerates Share Buyback
We have new data for Apple’s share buyback activity. The following totals are for Apple's share repurchases via open market transactions over the past two years:
1Q24: $20.5B spent on buyback. Average repurchase price per share: $183.77.
2Q24: $23.5B. Average repurchase price per share: $180.37.
3Q24: $26.0B. Average repurchase price per share: $187.36.
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Margin Concerns Are Overblown
Happy Wednesday.
To recap where we stand with reviewing Apple's 1Q26 earnings.
Last Friday: Big picture overview and the numbers
Tuesday: All about iPhone
Today: Margins
Let's jump in.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Margin Concerns Are Overblown
Heading into Apple’s 1Q26 earnings release, margin concerns were among the list of items thought to be contributing to Wall Street’s negative view regarding Apple. Memory pricing inflation had been in the news for weeks. There was also growing chatter and speculation surrounding the Apple / TSMC relationship as it pertained to future pricing and supply. We could have even thrown in lingering tariff cost concerns into the margins discussion, although the tariff topic does seem to have genuinely been put on the back burner for now with Apple’s exposure being contained.
Based on Apple management’s commentary on the 1Q26 earnings call, gross margin fears are overblown based on how events on the ground are trending. While Apple will likely see some pressure from select higher component pricing, a handful of tailwinds are positioned to help offset those headwinds.
Memory accounts for a relatively small percentage
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Let’s Talk About iPhone Results
Happy Tuesday. We are going to continue our Apple 1Q26 earnings review. Today’s update took a bit longer than expected to finalize.
Last Friday, we went over my initial thoughts regarding Apple’s results and how the numbers compared to my estimates. 1Q26 earnings and 2Q26 guidance were very strong. For this week, we will take a closer look at specific earnings-related topics. Today’s update will be focused on the iPhone.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Let’s Talk About the iPhone
Based on Apple’s earnings releases and conference call with analysts, here’s what we know about the latest iPhone results:
iPhone revenue: $85.3B (up 23%).
The $85.3B of revenue was constrained a bit by supply (advanced node 3nm capacity for SoCs). This supply shortage materialized via “very lean channel inventory” as management could not put as many iPhones into the channel as they wanted.
Apple said they sold a record number of iPhones in China in 1Q26 (Greater China revenue was up 38%). Records were put in for number of upgraders and strong double-digit growth on switchers. Recall how Apple’s 4Q25 iPhone results were hit by iPhone shortages in China.
As shown in the exhibit below, Apple is experiencing a step-up in iPhone revenue from approximately $200B/year to
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: People Want What Apple Is Selling
Hello everyone.
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. It’s been a busy week. For today’s update, I wanted to share the big picture takeaway from Apple’s earnings and how results compared to my estimates. There is plenty more to discuss. We will do that next week.
Have a great weekend.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: People Want What Apple Is Selling
The theme to our Apple 1Q26 earnings preview was divergence. Wall Street had turned skeptical of Apple just as the company’s business fundamentals were entering a higher gear. Apple’s 1Q26 results validated that theme. Apple reported its best quarter in four years. To then have Apple’s very strong 1Q26 results be constrained by supply tells us that demand is improving even faster than what is implied by the numbers. While the iPhone deservedly is getting much of the attention – revenue up 23% - the entire Apple ecosystem is seeing improved demand. People want what Apple is selling.
We have spent the past 18 to 24 months talking about how Apple product demand was beginning
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Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
Happy Thursday. Apple’s FY1Q26 earnings are out. Both 1Q26 results and 2Q26 guidance were strong. We will talk about it tomorrow (Friday).
For today’s update, we will continue our earnings reviews with Meta.
Let’s jump right in.
Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
For the past few quarters, a financial narrative battle has surrounded Meta. Following the company’s 4Q25 earnings release, this battle remains front and center.
One side thinks the Meta story should be primarily focused on revenue growth. Along those lines, there is a compelling story to tell.
Meta’s 4Q25 revenue was up 24% to $59.9B.
Meta’s 4Q25 ad impressions were up 18%.
Daily active users was up 7% to 3.58B.
Billions of users are spending more time on a Meta property consuming video clips, text posts, articles, and advertising.
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates, Above Avalon Expectation Meters (1Q26 Edition)
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 1Q26 earnings preview. Apple reports earnings on Thursday at 4:30 pm ET.
Let’s jump in.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates
The overall theme to my Apple FY1Q26 estimates: improving fundamentals. Most financial line items are trending better in FY2026 compared to FY2025. There are a few exceptions which we will discuss in a few minutes.
Apple will report the following records on Thursday:
Quarterly revenue
Operating income
Net income
iPhone quarterly revenue
Services quarterly revenue
Services gross margin
Here are my expectations for Apple’s key 1Q26 metrics:
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
Hello everyone.
Monday doubled as snowstorm cleanup day here in Connecticut. We received a little bit north of 16 inches, the most in about a decade. It certainly felt more during cleanup.
For today’s update, we will begin previewing Apple’s 1Q26 earnings which will be released on Thursday. The discussion will roll into tomorrow's update as well.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
We are witnessing one of the largest divergences heading into an Apple earnings release in recent memory.
The company’s business fundamentals continue to improve. The company is going to report an all-time quarterly record on a few fronts on Thursday. Thanks to strong device sales trends and robust Services performance, revenue growth is trending 3x stronger than what it was last year at this time.
Set against these improving trends, Wall Street’s attitude and feelings toward Apple has turned negative over the past two months.
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Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today’s update is dedicated to talking about The Information’s article regarding Apple working on an AI wearable pin. There may be some funny business at play. Let’s discuss.
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Netflix 4Q25 Earnings, Netflix Is Misreading the Market, The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix 4Q25 Earnings
Netflix Is Misreading the Market
The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
The 4Q25 earnings season has begun for us. We will kick things off by analyzing Netflix’s 4Q25 earnings and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to how Netflix is misreading the market. We conclude with Neil’s thoughts on where the Warner Bros. Discovery deal stands.
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Ads Coming to ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Strategy, Apple Implications
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Ads Coming to ChatGPT
OpenAI’s Strategy
Apple Implications
The update is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on ads coming to ChatGPT. In particular, we analyze OpenAI’s strategy. Is OpenAI late or early with bringing ads to ChatGPT? Related implications that ads in ChatGPT raise for Apple are also discussed.
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Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap, Estimating App Store Revenue, Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap
Estimating App Store Revenue
Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
In a welcome change, Apple used the first few weeks of a new calendar year to return to publishing a year-in-review for its Services business. We begin today’s update by going over Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s press release. The discussion then goes over Neil’s estimates for App Store revenue and the various revenue growth drivers responsible for Apple’s Services revenue growth.
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Apple Unveils Apple Creator Studio, Apple’s Bet, Potential Risk Factors
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils Apple Creator Studio
Apple’s Bet
Potential Risk Factors
Hello everyone. Apple unveiled a new paid service that plays in the creative app vertical. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing the new service. The discussion goes over Apple’s broader bet that is being placed with Apple Creator Studio.
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Apple and Google Make Gemini Models Deal Official, Apple’s Optionality, Revisiting Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple and Google Make Gemini Models Deal Official
Apple’s Optionality
Revisiting Apple’s (AI) Long Game
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Apple and Google announcing a deal regarding Apple Foundation models being based on Gemini models. The discussion then turns to how the deal provides Apple optionality when thinking about longer-term implications. We conclude by going over Apple’s (AI) long game.
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My Impressions Watching LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
My Impressions Watching LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video
Last Friday, the first LA Lakers game in Apple Immersive Video aired. A full replay is available to most Apple Vision Pro owners for free (via the NBA app). Today’s update will go over my impressions watching the game. We will continue the discussion tomorrow.
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Chase to Take Over Apple Card From Goldman, Possible Apple Card Changes, A Different Sales Proposition for Apple Vision Pro?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Chase to Take Over Apple Card From Goldman
Possible Apple Card Changes
A Different Sales Proposition for Apple Vision Pro?
We wrap up the first week of updates in 2026 with Apple Card. The update goes over Neil’s thoughts on news that Chase will officially be taking over Apple Card from Goldman Sachs. The discussion covers possible changes that will eventually come to Apple Card. We conclude the update with Apple Vision Pro. One comment that came in from a subscriber to yesterday’s LA Lakers in Apple Immersive Video discussion deserves our attention.
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