Spotify Earnings, Something Feels off With Spotify, It's Time to Push Apple Music
Hello everyone. The initial plan was to have this update cover Spotify’s earnings along with a few other news items. However, in going through Spotify’s earnings call transcript, it quickly became apparent that a different discussion was needed. We will have that discussion today. This will free up some space in tomorrow’s update to pursue a few other topics.
Let’s jump in.
Spotify Earnings
Looking back over the past two to three years of Above Avalon Daily Spotify earnings reviews, the prevailing takeaway from our discussions was spectacular user growth offset by mediocre financials.
(As for how Spotify has been able to grow its subscriber base, we can’t underestimate the power of free, unmet demand in emerging markets, and family plan accounting.)
Spotify’s 4Q25 numbers were
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Apple News Bias Alleged, FTC Warns Tim Cook, EssilorLuxottica Discloses Ray-Ban Meta Sales
February 13th, 2026
By Neil Cybart
Apple News Bias Alleged
FTC Warns Tim Cook
EssilorLuxottica Discloses Ray-Ban Meta Sales
Hello everyone. Let’s jump into today’s update.
Apple News Bias Alleged
Last week, MRC, a partisan website, alleged that Apple News was taking a “defiant stance against offering news from right-leaning outlets….” The website went on to cherry-pick a few headlines from what hundreds of stories curated within Apple News to say that Apple was purposely “rejecting” only “right-leaning outlets.”
Not surprisingly, the article was picked up by outlets including the New York Post and Fox News, two of the publications mentioned in MRC’s article as allegedly receiving unfair treatment from Apple. Due to the exposure generated by the outlets, the MRC report was eventually highlighted by President Trump, Elon Musk, and others on social media. Within a day, the FTC had sent a threatening letter to Tim Cook regarding the alleged Apple News bias.
AllSides, a publication that labels news sites based on their perceived political leaning, pushed out its own article based on Apple News data that they collected in October. Here’s AllSides:
“A new AllSides bias analysis found Apple News (Lean Left bias) continued its trend of publishing primarily from left-wing media outlets in 2025, displaying 2% of news articles from outlets on the right, and 50% from outlets on the left.
This is consistent with data from our 2023 analysis, when Apple News curated 1% from outlets on the right and 53% from the left.
While users can personalize which outlets appear on their Apple News app, for the purposes of this analysis, AllSides looked explicitly at Apple News’ ‘Top Stories’ and ‘Trending Stories’ sections, which are not personalized for individual users and are curated by Apple’s editors.”
AllSides published the following exhibit:
(click / tap exhibit to enlarge)
The chart caught my attention as it implied there has been no recent or sudden change in what Apple News has been doing.
Apple News relies on a few dozen former journalists to select the stories that comprise Top Stories. The selections are updated
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Apple Acquires Q, The Key Q Patent, Apple Is Developing a New User Interface
Hello everyone. Today’s update will be dedicated to Apple’s Q acquisition. At $1.6B, this is the second-largest Apple acquisition in terms of deal value. It’s a fascinating acquisition. Let’s discuss.
Apple Acquires Q
Here’s Reuters:
“Apple on Thursday said it has acquired Q.ai, an Israeli startup working on artificial intelligence technology for audio.
Apple did not disclose terms of the deal for Q.ai, which was backed by venture capital firms Matter Venture Partners, Kleiner Perkins, Spark Capital, Exor and GV, formerly known as Google Ventures. The deal valued the startup at about $1.6 billion, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Apple did not say how it will use Q.ai's technology but said the startup has worked on new applications of machine learning to help devices understand whispered speech and to enhance audio in challenging environments.
Q.ai last year filed a patent application to use "facial skin micromovements" to detect words mouthed or spoken, identify a person and assess their emotions, heart rate, respiration rate and other indicators.
Q.ai's 100 employees, including CEO Aviad Maizels and co-founders Yonatan Wexler and Avi Barliya, will join Apple, the companies said.
Maizels founded three-dimensional sensing firm PrimeSense and sold it to Apple in 2013. The PrimeSense deal eventually helped Apple move away from fingerprint sensors on its iPhones and toward facial recognition technology.”
Johny Srouji, Apple’s SVP of hardware technologies, provided the following statement to Reuters: Q “is a remarkable company that is pioneering new and creative ways to use imaging and machine learning. We’re thrilled to acquire the company, with Aviad at the helm, and are even more excited for what’s to come.”
When Apple acquired PrimeSense in 2013 for $360M, the company simply confirmed the acquisition and the provided what had been its generic "Apple buys smaller technology companies from time to time, and we generally do not discuss our purpose or plans” M&A comment.
The Q acquisition includes technology (with accompanying patents) that have very high probabilities of being brought to market via Apple products. Apple is not going to
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Happy Monday.
Today’s update will conclude our Apple 1Q26 earnings review with the latest installment of Reading Between the Lines. After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange.
Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 17th installment of Reading Between the Lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Parekh”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, The Motley Fool offers a written transcript here.
iPhone
Q (Morgan Stanley): What are the top factors driving iPhone strength?
Cook: It’s a combination of things – display, camera, performance, new selfie camera, design.
My response: We also can’t underestimate the degree to which
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Apple Reaccelerates Share Buyback, Apple’s Stellar Free Cash Flow, Takeaways From Apple’s 1Q26 10-Q
We will continue our Apple 1Q26 earnings review by turning to Apple’s capital management, balance sheet, and 10-Q.
For those of you who are new to the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, our goal for each Apple earnings review is to not leave any financial stone unturned. After today’s email, there will likely be one additional update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings before moving on to other topics.
Let’s jump right in.
Apple Reaccelerates Share Buyback
We have new data for Apple’s share buyback activity. The following totals are for Apple's share repurchases via open market transactions over the past two years:
1Q24: $20.5B spent on buyback. Average repurchase price per share: $183.77.
2Q24: $23.5B. Average repurchase price per share: $180.37.
3Q24: $26.0B. Average repurchase price per share: $187.36.
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Margin Concerns Are Overblown
Happy Wednesday.
To recap where we stand with reviewing Apple's 1Q26 earnings.
Last Friday: Big picture overview and the numbers
Tuesday: All about iPhone
Today: Margins
Let's jump in.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Margin Concerns Are Overblown
Heading into Apple’s 1Q26 earnings release, margin concerns were among the list of items thought to be contributing to Wall Street’s negative view regarding Apple. Memory pricing inflation had been in the news for weeks. There was also growing chatter and speculation surrounding the Apple / TSMC relationship as it pertained to future pricing and supply. We could have even thrown in lingering tariff cost concerns into the margins discussion, although the tariff topic does seem to have genuinely been put on the back burner for now with Apple’s exposure being contained.
Based on Apple management’s commentary on the 1Q26 earnings call, gross margin fears are overblown based on how events on the ground are trending. While Apple will likely see some pressure from select higher component pricing, a handful of tailwinds are positioned to help offset those headwinds.
Memory accounts for a relatively small percentage
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Let’s Talk About iPhone Results
Happy Tuesday. We are going to continue our Apple 1Q26 earnings review. Today’s update took a bit longer than expected to finalize.
Last Friday, we went over my initial thoughts regarding Apple’s results and how the numbers compared to my estimates. 1Q26 earnings and 2Q26 guidance were very strong. For this week, we will take a closer look at specific earnings-related topics. Today’s update will be focused on the iPhone.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: Let’s Talk About the iPhone
Based on Apple’s earnings releases and conference call with analysts, here’s what we know about the latest iPhone results:
iPhone revenue: $85.3B (up 23%).
The $85.3B of revenue was constrained a bit by supply (advanced node 3nm capacity for SoCs). This supply shortage materialized via “very lean channel inventory” as management could not put as many iPhones into the channel as they wanted.
Apple said they sold a record number of iPhones in China in 1Q26 (Greater China revenue was up 38%). Records were put in for number of upgraders and strong double-digit growth on switchers. Recall how Apple’s 4Q25 iPhone results were hit by iPhone shortages in China.
As shown in the exhibit below, Apple is experiencing a step-up in iPhone revenue from approximately $200B/year to
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Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: People Want What Apple Is Selling
Hello everyone.
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. It’s been a busy week. For today’s update, I wanted to share the big picture takeaway from Apple’s earnings and how results compared to my estimates. There is plenty more to discuss. We will do that next week.
Have a great weekend.
Apple 1Q26 Earnings Review: People Want What Apple Is Selling
The theme to our Apple 1Q26 earnings preview was divergence. Wall Street had turned skeptical of Apple just as the company’s business fundamentals were entering a higher gear. Apple’s 1Q26 results validated that theme. Apple reported its best quarter in four years. To then have Apple’s very strong 1Q26 results be constrained by supply tells us that demand is improving even faster than what is implied by the numbers. While the iPhone deservedly is getting much of the attention – revenue up 23% - the entire Apple ecosystem is seeing improved demand. People want what Apple is selling.
We have spent the past 18 to 24 months talking about how Apple product demand was beginning
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Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
Happy Thursday. Apple’s FY1Q26 earnings are out. Both 1Q26 results and 2Q26 guidance were strong. We will talk about it tomorrow (Friday).
For today’s update, we will continue our earnings reviews with Meta.
Let’s jump right in.
Meta 4Q25 Earnings Results: Impressive Growth, but at What Cost?
For the past few quarters, a financial narrative battle has surrounded Meta. Following the company’s 4Q25 earnings release, this battle remains front and center.
One side thinks the Meta story should be primarily focused on revenue growth. Along those lines, there is a compelling story to tell.
Meta’s 4Q25 revenue was up 24% to $59.9B.
Meta’s 4Q25 ad impressions were up 18%.
Daily active users was up 7% to 3.58B.
Billions of users are spending more time on a Meta property consuming video clips, text posts, articles, and advertising.
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates, Above Avalon Expectation Meters (1Q26 Edition)
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 1Q26 earnings preview. Apple reports earnings on Thursday at 4:30 pm ET.
Let’s jump in.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: My Estimates
The overall theme to my Apple FY1Q26 estimates: improving fundamentals. Most financial line items are trending better in FY2026 compared to FY2025. There are a few exceptions which we will discuss in a few minutes.
Apple will report the following records on Thursday:
Quarterly revenue
Operating income
Net income
iPhone quarterly revenue
Services quarterly revenue
Services gross margin
Here are my expectations for Apple’s key 1Q26 metrics:
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
Hello everyone.
Monday doubled as snowstorm cleanup day here in Connecticut. We received a little bit north of 16 inches, the most in about a decade. It certainly felt more during cleanup.
For today’s update, we will begin previewing Apple’s 1Q26 earnings which will be released on Thursday. The discussion will roll into tomorrow's update as well.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
We are witnessing one of the largest divergences heading into an Apple earnings release in recent memory.
The company’s business fundamentals continue to improve. The company is going to report an all-time quarterly record on a few fronts on Thursday. Thanks to strong device sales trends and robust Services performance, revenue growth is trending 3x stronger than what it was last year at this time.
Set against these improving trends, Wall Street’s attitude and feelings toward Apple has turned negative over the past two months.
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Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Let’s Talk About This Apple AI Pin Rumor
Today’s update is dedicated to talking about The Information’s article regarding Apple working on an AI wearable pin. There may be some funny business at play. Let’s discuss.
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Netflix 4Q25 Earnings, Netflix Is Misreading the Market, The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix 4Q25 Earnings
Netflix Is Misreading the Market
The Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
The 4Q25 earnings season has begun for us. We will kick things off by analyzing Netflix’s 4Q25 earnings and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to how Netflix is misreading the market. We conclude with Neil’s thoughts on where the Warner Bros. Discovery deal stands.
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Ads Coming to ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Strategy, Apple Implications
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Ads Coming to ChatGPT
OpenAI’s Strategy
Apple Implications
The update is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on ads coming to ChatGPT. In particular, we analyze OpenAI’s strategy. Is OpenAI late or early with bringing ads to ChatGPT? Related implications that ads in ChatGPT raise for Apple are also discussed.
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Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap, Estimating App Store Revenue, Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Returns to Publishing Services Recap
Estimating App Store Revenue
Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue Growth
In a welcome change, Apple used the first few weeks of a new calendar year to return to publishing a year-in-review for its Services business. We begin today’s update by going over Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s press release. The discussion then goes over Neil’s estimates for App Store revenue and the various revenue growth drivers responsible for Apple’s Services revenue growth.
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