Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings: Strong, but Messy

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:  

• Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings: Strong, but Messy

Hello everyone. We will begin reviewing Apple's earnings. The discussion will continue next week. My earnings model with updated 3Q26 numbers with be posted this evening for those of you signed up for Above Avalon Models. To access the earnings model, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here). Once signed in, go to the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized page where the earnings model can be downloaded.

Let’s jump in.

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Meta Earnings, Microsoft Earnings

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Meta Earnings

• Microsoft Earnings

The update covers Neil’s thoughts and reactions regarding Meta’s and Microsoft’s CY2Q26 earnings releases and conference calls.

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Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:  

• Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings

Apple reports earnings tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30 pm ET. This will be the last earnings report that Tim Cook will oversee as Apple CEO. Today’s update goes over the environment facing Apple (and AAPL) ahead of earnings. We also discuss my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q26 and 4Q26.

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Apple Launches Apple Upgrade, Revisiting Apple Hardware as a Service, Implications on Upgrading

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Apple Launches Apple Upgrade

• Revisiting Apple Hardware as a Service

• Implications on Upgrading

The plan is to dedicate tomorrow’s (Wednesday) update to previewing Apple’s FY3Q26 earnings. For today’s update, we will look at an all-new HW leasing program that Apple unveiled earlier today.

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Apple and Ford Partner on Apple Maps, The Intrigue Behind the Deal, Apple Maps’ Importance

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Apple and Ford Partner on Apple Maps

• The Intrigue Behind the Deal

• Apple Maps’ Importance

This is shaping up to be a busy week. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. Microsoft and Meta report earnings a day earlier. Depending on how the week trends, we will see if we can touch Microsoft and Meta on Thursday.

Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing some news from last week out of Apple. We discuss Apple and Ford partnering on Apple Maps. There is much intrigue found with the deal. We also talk about Apple Maps’ importance.

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Alphabet 2Q26 Earnings, The Line in the (Alphabet) Sand, The Alphabet Capex Question

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Alphabet 2Q26 Earnings

• The Line in the (Alphabet) Sand

• The Alphabet Capex Question

This update is dedicated to discussing Alphabet’s earnings.

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Netflix 2Q26 Earnings, Netflix’s Shaky Explanation for Engagement, Netflix Management Is Losing Credibility

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Netflix 2Q26 Earnings

• Netflix’s Shaky Explanation for Engagement

• Netflix Management Is Losing Credibility

CY2Q26 tech earnings season is here. Yesterday, Alphabet was the first Big Tech company to release earnings. Apple reports earnings next Thursday.

The game plan is to get as many non-Apple tech earnings releases in before Apple reports. While it is difficult to use another tech earnings report as a read for what Apple will report next week, the additional context found with Big Tech’s 2Q26 financial performance will be helpful for framing Apple’s performance. With that in mind, we will dedicate today’s update to Netflix earnings. Tomorrow’s update will be dedicated to Alphabet earnings.

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Revisiting Why Apple Isn’t Replicable, Apple Intelligence Approved for China, Apple Raises iPhone Prices in Japan

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Revisiting Why Apple Isn’t Replicable

• Apple Intelligence Approved for China

• Apple Raises iPhone Prices in Japan

We will begin today’s update with a continuation of Monday’s discussion involving OpenAI. Our discussion regarding Apple’s trade theft lawsuit against OpenAI led me to recall some takeaways from Apple’s 50th anniversary. In going through comments that Tim Cook gave to mark Apple’s anniversary, the topic of replicating Apple was raised. Our attention will then turn to two Apple news items that hit this past week.

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Apple Sues OpenAI for Trade Theft, OpenAI’s HW Motivation, OpenAI’s Miscalculation

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Apple Sues OpenAI for Trade Theft

• OpenAI’s HW Motivation

• OpenAI’s Miscalculation

The discussion begins with Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s lawsuit against OpenAI for trade theft. We then turn to what is ultimately driving OpenAI’s desire to move as fast as possible with hardware. The update concludes by discussing the massive product strategy miscalculation being made by OpenAI.

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Snap Specs, Meta Glasses, Where’s All of This Going?

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Snap Specs

• Meta Glasses

• Where’s All of This Going?

We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Snap Specs and Meta Glasses. The discussion then turns to addressing several debates regarding smart glasses and the broader spatial computing movement. The update goes over several difficult problems found in the smart glasses space.

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Foldables Aren’t Phablets, Foldable iPhone Revenue Potential, A Foldable iPhone Wild Card

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Foldables Aren’t Phablets

• Foldable iPhone Revenue Potential

• A Foldable iPhone Wild Card

Following last Thursday’s discussion, smartphones and iPhones continue to be on my mind. The iPhone is slated to experience an important September with Apple expected to unveil an all-new iPhone model / form factor. For today’s update, we will set the scene a bit ahead of that September event. We begin by discussing how foldables are not trending like phablets in terms of customer adoption and sales. The update then turns to some foldable iPhone revenue figures and possibilities. We conclude with why Neil thinks a foldable iPhone is a genuine wildcard.

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Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo Cut Smartphone Targets, Apple Reportedly Raises Foldable iPhone Forecast, Apple Securing Components Supply

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo Cut Smartphone Targets

• Apple Reportedly Raises Foldable iPhone Forecast

• Apple Securing Components Supply

There is continued evidence of major dislocation unfolding in the smartphone market. We will dedicate today’s update to the topic, and Apple’s response to smartphone industry changes. The update begins with Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo reportedly cutting smartphone shipment targets for 2026. The discussion then turns to Apple’s foldable iPhone forecasts. We conclude with an observation regarding Apple navigating consumer electronics components bottlenecks driven by AI mania.

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How the Memory Crisis Caught Apple Off Guard, Apple Lobbying for Chinese Memory, Samsung / SK Announce Memory Investments

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• How the Memory Crisis Caught Apple Off Guard

• Apple Lobbying for Chinese Memory

• Samsung / SK Announce Memory Investments

We will continue our discussion regarding the memory crisis. Following Monday's update, the prevailing theme found with incoming questions from subscribers was, how could Apple have not seen the memory crisis coming? The update begins with Neil’s thoughts on the question. We then turn to Apple lobbying for Chinese memory from CXMT and YMTC. The discussion concludes with Neil’s thoughts on Samsung and SK Hynix announcing a $516B investment commitment related to increasing memory supply.

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What’s Really Going on With Memory

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story: 

• What’s Really Going on With Memory

Today’s update will include a broader overview of the memory crisis, including a look at why Apple and Micron are having something of a war of words with each other in public.

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Apple Raises Product Prices, Whopper Price Hikes, iPhone Pricing Holds Steady…for Now

Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories: 

• Apple Raises Product Prices

• Whopper Price Hikes

• iPhone Pricing Holds Steady…for Now

Fallout from the growing memory crisis expanded in a big way today with Apple announcing price hikes. We begin by going over Neil’s thoughts regarding the price hikes. The update then addresses the following question: Will Apple roll these price hikes back when the memory crisis breaks? We conclude with several possible explanations for why the iPhone, along with Apple Watch and AirPods, did not see price hikes (for now).

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