Walmart Waves the White Flag to Apple Pay
Hello everyone. It feels good to get back into the swing of things. We will kick things off with news on the Apple Pay front.
Walmart Waves the White Flag to Apple Pay
In a press release issued on August 21st, here’s Walmart:
“When we think about convenience, we think about a lot of things, but making shopping feel simpler and more seamless from start to finish is a big part. And one of the moments where that matters most is at checkout.
We want customers and members to have choice in how they pay, so they can check out in the way that works best for them. Now, beginning Aug. 24, we will be adding Tap to Pay to our payment options at select Walmart stores and Sam’s Club locations, with plans to roll it out to all U.S. stores and clubs by the end of 2026 and to fuel stations by mid-2027.
Tap to Pay gives customers and members another familiar and convenient way to pay at checkout using contactless payment methods. Whether picking up groceries, gifts or everyday essentials, they can check out using eligible contactless card, phone, or smartwatch. Customers and members can also add their eligible Walmart, Sam's Club and OnePay cards to their digital wallets, giving them another convenient way to use their cards.”
Since Walmart is accepting contactless payments, Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay will be supported. However, with Apple Pay usage far exceeding Google Pay and Samsung Pay usage, Walmart’s decision is ultimately about Apple Pay. And it’s fair to label this news as Walmart officially losing the battle it had been waging against Apple Pay for the past decade.
This news did not generate anywhere near the amount of press that it would have years ago as Apple Pay has already won in the marketplace. Walmart was the general refusing to wave the white flag despite being surrounded by the enemy army.
Walmart’s anti-Apple Pay stance has long come across as a retailer sticking its head in the sand, oblivious to what its customers have been demanding in terms of payment solutions. It is comical how Walmart is only now talking
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MLB Coming to Apple Immersive, Apple Upgrade & Apple Vision Pro?, Google’s Ask Maps Gets Agentic Food Ordering
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
MLB Coming to Apple Immersive
Apple Upgrade & Apple Vision Pro?
Google’s Ask Maps Gets Agentic Food Ordering
We kick off with Neil’s thoughts regarding Apple announcing “Friday Night Baseball” coming to Apple Immersive on Apple Vision Pro. The update then turns to a thought experiment involving Apple Upgrade and Apple Vision Pro. We conclude in digital mapping land and Google announcing agentic food ordering within Google Maps. When it comes to agentic AI in mapping, two issues stand out to me (both are on display with Ask Maps).
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 3Q26 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.
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Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: A Capital Efficiency Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: A Capital Efficiency Story
On Monday, we talked about Apple’s revenue outlook heading into FY27. iPhone upgrading dynamics will play a big role in what continues to look like a good setup heading into next year.
Yesterday, we discussed Apple’s margin outlook. Compared to revenue, Apple’s margin picture faces greater pressure. FX, supply constraints, and memory will weigh on gross margins in FY27. Instead of FY27 representing the beginning of a structural decline in margins, my thinking is Apple sees something of an air pocket since FY26 was a very good year for gross margins.
For today’s update, we will focus on an Apple financial topic that probably still doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves: Apple’s capital picture, including balance sheet management. Following Apple’s 3Q26 results, there are some new takeaways to discuss.
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Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The Battle for Continued Margin Improvement
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The Battle for Continued Margin Improvement
We will continue our Apple 3Q26 earnings review with a closer look at the dynamics surrounding the company’s gross margins heading into FY2027.
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Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The iPhone Is (Still) Being Underestimated
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple 3Q26 Earnings Review: The iPhone Is (Still) Being Underestimated
Last Friday, we began reviewing Apple's 3Q26 earnings. We will continue our Apple earnings discussion this week. Today’s update begins with how Apple’s 3Q26 results and 4Q26 guidance compared to Neil’s expectations. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks consensus is still underestimating the iPhone. The update goes over Neil’s iPhone estimates for FY2027 and where the most likely source of upside to his iPhone estimates is found.
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Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings: Strong, but Messy
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings: Strong, but Messy
Hello everyone. We will begin reviewing Apple's earnings. The discussion will continue next week. My earnings model with updated 3Q26 numbers with be posted this evening for those of you signed up for Above Avalon Models. To access the earnings model, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here). Once signed in, go to the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized page where the earnings model can be downloaded.
Let’s jump in.
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Meta Earnings, Microsoft Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Meta Earnings
Microsoft Earnings
The update covers Neil’s thoughts and reactions regarding Meta’s and Microsoft’s CY2Q26 earnings releases and conference calls.
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Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings
Apple reports earnings tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30 pm ET. This will be the last earnings report that Tim Cook will oversee as Apple CEO. Today’s update goes over the environment facing Apple (and AAPL) ahead of earnings. We also discuss my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q26 and 4Q26.
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Apple Launches Apple Upgrade, Revisiting Apple Hardware as a Service, Implications on Upgrading
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Launches Apple Upgrade
Revisiting Apple Hardware as a Service
Implications on Upgrading
The plan is to dedicate tomorrow’s (Wednesday) update to previewing Apple’s FY3Q26 earnings. For today’s update, we will look at an all-new HW leasing program that Apple unveiled earlier today.
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Apple and Ford Partner on Apple Maps, The Intrigue Behind the Deal, Apple Maps’ Importance
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple and Ford Partner on Apple Maps
The Intrigue Behind the Deal
Apple Maps’ Importance
This is shaping up to be a busy week. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. Microsoft and Meta report earnings a day earlier. Depending on how the week trends, we will see if we can touch Microsoft and Meta on Thursday.
Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing some news from last week out of Apple. We discuss Apple and Ford partnering on Apple Maps. There is much intrigue found with the deal. We also talk about Apple Maps’ importance.
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Alphabet 2Q26 Earnings, The Line in the (Alphabet) Sand, The Alphabet Capex Question
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Alphabet 2Q26 Earnings
The Line in the (Alphabet) Sand
The Alphabet Capex Question
This update is dedicated to discussing Alphabet’s earnings.
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Netflix 2Q26 Earnings, Netflix’s Shaky Explanation for Engagement, Netflix Management Is Losing Credibility
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix 2Q26 Earnings
Netflix’s Shaky Explanation for Engagement
Netflix Management Is Losing Credibility
CY2Q26 tech earnings season is here. Yesterday, Alphabet was the first Big Tech company to release earnings. Apple reports earnings next Thursday.
The game plan is to get as many non-Apple tech earnings releases in before Apple reports. While it is difficult to use another tech earnings report as a read for what Apple will report next week, the additional context found with Big Tech’s 2Q26 financial performance will be helpful for framing Apple’s performance. With that in mind, we will dedicate today’s update to Netflix earnings. Tomorrow’s update will be dedicated to Alphabet earnings.
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Revisiting Why Apple Isn’t Replicable, Apple Intelligence Approved for China, Apple Raises iPhone Prices in Japan
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Revisiting Why Apple Isn’t Replicable
Apple Intelligence Approved for China
Apple Raises iPhone Prices in Japan
We will begin today’s update with a continuation of Monday’s discussion involving OpenAI. Our discussion regarding Apple’s trade theft lawsuit against OpenAI led me to recall some takeaways from Apple’s 50th anniversary. In going through comments that Tim Cook gave to mark Apple’s anniversary, the topic of replicating Apple was raised. Our attention will then turn to two Apple news items that hit this past week.
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Apple Sues OpenAI for Trade Theft, OpenAI’s HW Motivation, OpenAI’s Miscalculation
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Sues OpenAI for Trade Theft
OpenAI’s HW Motivation
OpenAI’s Miscalculation
The discussion begins with Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s lawsuit against OpenAI for trade theft. We then turn to what is ultimately driving OpenAI’s desire to move as fast as possible with hardware. The update concludes by discussing the massive product strategy miscalculation being made by OpenAI.
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