Apple Pay Enrollment Trends

Bank of America reported yesterday that 800,000 of its customers had registered with Apple Pay. Since Bank of America is the second largest bank in the U.S. according to assets (third in terms of deposits), this new data point suggests early Apple Pay enrollment trends look strong. I estimate 10-15% of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus owners in the U.S. (2-3 million people) have registered cards with Apple Pay.

Exhibit 1 highlights the top ten banks in the U.S., ranked by total assets. Total deposits are also included to get a better idea of customer base rank. The top four banks clearly have a larger asset footprint than peers, representing 40% of deposits in the U.S. Most of the larger banks in the U.S. now support Apple Pay. 

Exhibit 1: Largest U.S. Banks - Total Assets

Exhibit 2 highlights the top banks in the U.S. according to branch footprint, which shows some slight reshuffling in rank from Exhibit 1, although the top players still support Apple Pay.  

Exhibit 2: Largest U.S. Banks - Retail Branches

In order to reach Apple Pay enrollment estimates, I added the roughly 15 million iPhone 6 and 6 Plus units sold globally in 4Q14 to the expected 50 million iPhone 6 and 6 Plus units sold in 1Q15 (Apple is still selling iPhone 5s and 5c), implying Apple has sold around 65 million iPhone 6 and 6 units globally, with approximately 35% attributed to the U.S, or 23 million units. Running with that number, Exhibit 3 highlights three possible Apple Pay enrollment scenarios predicated on the percentage of total iPhone 6 and 6 Plus users represented by Bank of America. 

Exhibit 3: Apple Pay Enrollment Estimates

Running with a conservative estimate of the percent of Apple Pay users Bank of America (50M total banking customers) represents, Apple Pay enrollment rates in the U.S. would stand at 8%. If using aggressive metrics, Apple Pay enrollment would be 16%. I estimate 10-15% of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus owners in the U.S. have registered with Apple Pay. As a reminder, this does not mean that 10-15% of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus owners are using the service at retailers or within apps. Having users add cards to Apple Pay is the first major hurdle Apple has to overcome to get Apple Pay usage off the ground. By adding a card (even if it's already included in iTunes), users demonstrate trust in Apple and the Apple Pay service. In the coming months, Apple's focus in the U.S. will continue to be on adding banks (close to 90% of card credit transaction volume is supported by Apple Pay) and additional retailers. International expansion is also expected in the coming months with reports indicating Britain and Canada as possible targets for the next Apple Pay rollout. It is still early, but Apple Pay enrollment trends in the U.S. look strong.