One phrase that has become a fixture on Apple device boxes and some Apple products is “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China.” Those eight words may not mean much to the average Apple consumer, but they sufficiently sum up how a company now worth more than two trillion dollars became one of the largest sellers of consumer gadgets. A gradual change to Apple’s supply chain and product manufacturing apparatus is now underway. One byproduct of this change is an increasing number of Apple product boxes that no longer contain “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China.” The change has implications for how Apple will approach product manufacturing in the 2020s.

Designed by Apple

Most analysts and pundits have landed on Apple’s custom silicon efforts as the defining source of the company’s success – the single-most important factor in explaining how Apple has been able to stand out from its peers. While Apple’s silicon prowess is undoubtedly a key differentiator for the company, the decade-long bet isn’t the fundamental reason why the company is where it is today. Instead, one has to look at the processes and culture that made Apple’s silicon efforts possible in the first place.

Ultimately, Apple’s design-led culture is the single-most responsible factor behind the company’s ability to expand its installed base to more than a billion people. The relationships that Apple has formed with its customers aren’t just any connections but rather some of the strongest and most loyal connections in the corporate world. Apple placed a big bet on design (how we use products) and was proven right. Believing that technology is too powerful of a force to enjoy without acquired perception and natural intelligence made Apple an outlier. Other companies are now trying to emulate Apple’s design-led thinking and culture with varying degrees of success.

In California

While those residing in the U.S. may not make much out of the “in California” component of “Designed by Apple in California,” Apple’s roots and heritage are intertwined with Silicon Valley. Apple can be described as a headquarters-centered company. Despite announcing major expansion plans in Austin, and new presences / expansion in in a handful of U.S. cities including Seattle (poach Amazon employees), San Diego (poach Qualcomm employees), Culver City (poach Hollywood talent), Pittsburgh (autonomous systems), New York (media and publishing), Boston (robotics), Portland (hardware-related efforts), and Boulder (possibly related to health-related efforts), everything comes back to Apple Park in Cupertino, California. Apple Park remains the sun with all of these satellite offices and campuses revolving around it.

Taking a step back from Apple in particular, the era when it was either Silicon Valley or bust ended years ago. However, that doesn’t mean Silicon Valley has been displaced as one of the most concentrated sources of innovation and new age thinking in the world. Recent attempts by some to paint other parts of the U.S. such as Miami and Austin as new Silicon Valleys may make for great tweet threads and blog posts, but for every person “fleeing” Silicon Valley, there are multiple people ready to be a replacement.

Assembled in China

The controversial part of “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” is “Assembled in China.” For some products, Apple has relied on “Made in China.” In recent years, Apple’s extensive ties to China regarding its supply chain and manufacturing apparatus have been labeled as major liabilities. Headlines and narratives are universally slanted against Apple’s approach to China, home to approximately 15% to 20% of Apple’s users. Many pundits want Apple to simply close up shop in China and abandon its users in the country.

As relations between the world’s two economic powerhouses deteriorate, Apple has been described as being stuck in the middle. Of course, such a simplistic description lacks nuance. When it comes to China, Apple’s position is not nearly as perilous as western media wants people to think. Apple has been able to maintain its premium brand status in China and the brand remains heavily influential in China’s tech scene. It’s not outlandish to say that most non-iPhone smartphones sold in China are heavily “inspired” by the iPhone. The same can be said about wearables being “inspired” by Apple Watch and AirPods.

In addition to a strong brand, Apple has a few key things going for it when it comes to its power standing and positioning in China. Being ultimately the driver behind the largest private employer in China means something. Not only are Apple products destined for sale in China made in China, but the country has been responsible for manufacturing Apple products sent to other countries. Being home to Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing apparatus gives China power and standing in its economic battle with the U.S. and increasingly other countries, including India.

Not Assembled in China

In December 2020, I ordered two HomePod mini speakers shortly after Apple unveiled the lower-cost speaker. One of my initial observations about the speakers materialized before opening the boxes. The back of the HomePod mini box did not contain the usual “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” phrase. Instead, the following was printed on the box:

“Designed by Apple in California Made in Vietnam.”

Rumors had pegged the new HomePod mini as being assembled in Vietnam. Even then, seeing Vietnam on the box was an eye-opener. Taking a step back from the HomePod mini, we see Apple embark on a broader move away from China for product manufacturing. The following products are currently, or will be, assembled outside of China.

Vietnam: AirPods Pro, HomePod mini, AirPods (rumored), iPad (rumored), Mac (rumored)
India: iPhone, iPad (rumored)
Malaysia: Mac mini
U.S.: Mac Pro

(While the Mac Pro has been assembled in the U.S. for years, the device sells in such low numbers that it’s tough to say Apple has embraced U.S. manufacturing.)

A handful of countries in Southeast Asia are now in a position to manufacture Apple products. Some of this is due to governments increasingly accommodating foreign investment. Another factor is Apple’s long-time and vital business partner, Foxconn, showing a renewed effort to diversify its own business and footprint outside of China.

At the heart of this manufacturing transformation, one simple principle is guiding Apple: retaining power. By diversifying product assembly outside of China, Apple ends up pitting both governments and assemblers against each other. Apple stands to be one of the largest beneficiaries from increased economic rivalry between China, India, and Southeast Asia countries. Apple continues to take advantage of India’s more friendly and accommodating environment to bring a growing portion of iPhone production to the country.

As for some of the finer strategy details found with Apple’s move, instead of announcing a big change like “we are moving all iPhone production out of China,” which western media has been demanding for years, Apple is taking the more practical and intelligent approach. The company remains careful not to disrupt its existing assembly apparatus. The vast majority of product assembly remains in China. Apple has looked outside of China to handle assembly for newer products that sell in much lower volumes relative to the iPhone. Such decisions involve a comprehensive examination of not just product assemblers (Foxconn, Pegatron, Luxshare, Wistron) but also the ability of key suppliers to work with the diversification efforts. Apple benefits from having resources and assets close to assemblers.

Looking down the road, it is reasonable to expect a growing percentage of Apple products will be assembled outside of China. It is even likely that Apple will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and we would be talking something much larger than the Mac Pro. Instead of iPhones and iPads being made in Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee, it is more likely that Apple Cars will one day be produced in sprawling plants that are owned by third parties but contain Apple-owned machinery and equipment.

Evolution

Apple is quietly and gradually showing us that the phase “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” will evolve. The company remains heavily invested in China, and that likely won’t change in the near term. However, by gradually diversifying product assembly into other countries, Apple ends up showing the world that its supply chain contains much more optionality than critics imagined. The battle between the world’s top economic powers for Apple’s business will be a key theme to watch in the 2020s.

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For additional discussion on this topic, check out the Above Avalon daily update from April 19th.