For the past few years, Above Avalon members have been customizing their memberships with optional add-ons. In 2020, the Podcast add-on was launched with the option to listen to the updates in podcast form. The add-on was later enhanced to include reports in audio form. To date, nearly 600 episodes have been recorded. In early 2021, Inside Orchard, which compliments my Apple-focused analysis with broader thoughts on the technology industry, was positioned as the second add-on for members. To date, 125 Inside Orchard essays and podcast episodes have been published.

One of the most requested features from Above Avalon members has been access to more of the financial models that I (Neil Cybart) use to analyze Apple and derive my financial estimates.

I am excited to announce a new membership add-on dedicated to Apple financial modeling.

Details

Designed for anyone with an interest in Apple’s financials and product strategy, the Financial Models add-on provides access to three of my Apple installed base models (iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch). This is the first time that my installed base models have been made available to others.

The models are built in Excel but also usable in Numbers. While the models include my estimates and assumptions, all inputs can be adjusted to reflect your own assumptions. The add-on also includes the ability to reach out to me with questions about the models.

A general rule with financial models is that the best ones are constantly being improved. As new information becomes available, the installed base models will be updated.

The models, which have been built over the course of years, make it possible to estimate:

Device unit sales.
The number of devices in the wild over time.
Percent of device sales going to new users vs. existing users by year.
Product upgrade cycle length.
The upgrade path that users take.
And more…

The preceding metrics will be of interest to everyone from AAPL investors modeling Apple’s financials to Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand the marketplace.

Pricing

The Financial Models add-on can be attached to an Above Avalon membership for $850 per year. Instead of needing to spend thousands of dollars on a financial data subscription or send trading volume to a broker in return for research access, you will find ease and value with the Financial Models add-on. I am confident the value found with just one installed base model will far exceed the add-on’s price. Subscribers will receive seamless online access to my installed base models at any time.

Group Pricing. If you have a friend or co-workers interested in utilizing the Financial Models add-on, take advantage of special group rates. Fill out this online form and indicate you are interested in subscribing to the Financial Models add-on at the group rate.

Signing Up

The Financial Models add-on can be attached to an Above Avalon membership for $850/year. If you need to become a member, fill out the following payment form which includes the Financial Models add-on:

Subscribe (with Financial Models Add-on)

Already an Above Avalon member? Attach the Financial Models add-on to your membership for $850/year by filling out this payment form.

Already an Above Avalon member? Click/tap here to get the financial Models Add-on

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay is accepted. Paid invoice receipts are available upon request. The full charge associated with purchasing the Financial Models add-on will go through at signup. At your next membership renewal, your charge will include a pro-rated amount for the add-on. For members who have specific payment/invoice requirements dictated by their employer, please reach out to me with that information.

Already an Above Avalon member subscribed to “The Works”?, Fill out this online form to get the Financial Models add-on at the special $700 bundle price. Once your request has been processed, a customized coupon will be emailed to you to use with the online payment form.

If you aren’t an Above Avalon member, take advantage of special bundle pricing found with the Financial Models by signing up for an Ultra membership. Receive all three add-ons at a $150 discount. This amounts to getting the Podcast and Inside Orchard add-ons for free.

Above Avalon membership ($200 per year)
+ Podcast add-on ($100 per year)
+ Inside Orchard add-on ($50 per year)
+ Financial Models add-on ($700 per year - $150 off)
Total: $1,050 per year

Subscribe to Ultra

Accessing the Models

Once payment has gone through, you will receive an email containing a personalized link to the installed base models. This personalized link tied to your membership will remain active as long as the add-on is attached to your membership.

You will also be able to access the models via the Above Avalon payer portal (accessed via "Member Login" over at AboveAvalon.com). A new “Digital Package” tab will appear that will bring you to your personalized download page. There are no new logins or passwords required.

Questions about the Financial Models add-on can be addressed to me using this contact form.