Hello everyone. This is the second update dedicated to reviewing Apple’s 4Q26 earnings. The update took longer than expected to put together as some additional modeling work was needed. We will conclude our earnings review on Monday.
Let’s jump in.
Apple 4Q26 Earnings Review: Measuring the Memory Crisis Impact
In examining Apple’s 4Q26 results and 1Q27 guidance, the excessive noise found with product launch timing differences and supply issues makes it difficult to come away with many new observations regarding sell-through demand. There weren’t any obvious clues or signs that led me to rethink my prevailing Apple HW demand assumptions.
While one can use Apple’s stated revenue figures to derive unit sales (my estimates are found below) and ASP estimates for Apple’s various product categories, the numbers for iPhone, iPad, and Mac aren’t “clean” in the sense of matching sell-through customer demand.
iPhone: 61.4M units sold in 4Q26 (10% growth year over year)
iPad: 10.4M (-12%)
Mac: 7.9M (27%)
Apple Watch: 7.5M (-4%)
AirPods: 10.4M ( -5%)
Even though my model has iPhone unit sales growth at 10% in 4Q26, normalized sell-through demand for iPhone would have very likely
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