Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings
Hello everyone.
Apple reports earnings tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30 pm ET. This will be the last earnings report that Tim Cook will oversee as Apple CEO.
My goal is to get an update out tomorrow in which we touch upon Meta’s and Microsoft’s earnings. We will then review Apple’s earnings on Friday (likely in the PM ET).
My updated Apple earnings model (works with Excel and Numbers) with revised FY3Q26 and 4Q26 estimates is now available to those of you who have an Above Avalon Models subscription attached to your Above Avalon Daily subscription. In addition, the model now includes my FY2027 estimates.
To access the earnings model, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here). Once signed in, go to the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized page where the earnings model can be downloaded.
If you are interested in subscribing to Above Avalon Models, learn more about the subscription at this page. Above Avalon Models is a nice compliment to these updates for AAPL investors and those who need to model granular Apple device sales.
Previewing Apple’s 3Q26 Earnings
Over the past year, the broader Wall Street environment facing Apple has changed dramatically. At this point in 2025, Apple shares were underperforming the S&P 500 by a whopping 22% YTD.
From a PR perspective, Apple couldn’t catch a break.
U.S. tariffs / Trump-related headlines were more negative than positive for Apple.
There was a significant amount of unknown surrounding Google’s search deal with Apple.
The App Store injunction ruling was a gut punch to both Apple and the App Store.
EU (DMA) demands for Apple to open its ecosystem to competitors raised questions regarding just how aggressive Apple can be in bringing new features to the EU.
There was significant unknown and disagreement regarding Apple’s AI strategy as more personal Siri needed to be delayed.
Jump ahead a year and three of the five preceding issues have become non-stories. Apple shares are outperforming the S&P 500 by 18% YTD in 2026 with shares up nearly 60% from where they were trading when Apple reported 3Q25 earnings. While Wall Street continues to have questions regarding Apple’s broader AI strategy, the tone has turned more positive since Siri AI was unveiled at WWDC.
This article is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, go here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read this article and receive future articles. You can use the payment forms below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, go here.
An audio version of this article is available to members who have the Podcasts add-on (+$10/month or +$100/year) attached to their Above Avalon membership.