Revenue: $37.6 billion (AAPL guidance: high end of $34-37 billion range/Consensus: $36.8 billion)
- I expect Apple’s revenue to increase 4% year-over-year.
- I expect Apple’s margin to increase sequentially to 37.1% from 36.9% last quarter, reflecting a modest boost from the newest iPhones. Management’s margin guidance is approximately 300-400 basis points less than the 40.0% margin reported in 4Q12.
- I expect Apple to report a 5% yoy EPS decline. I am including a 908 million share count (implying around $8 billion of buyback).
Product Unit Sales and CommentaryMacs: 4.4 million (10% yoy decline)
- Mac sales continue to slow as tablets and smart phones satisfy many consumers’ computing needs. I assume 10% declines in both desktops and portables.
- I expect Apple to report weak iPad sales ahead of the iPad refresh in October. With modest channel inventory fill, I expect iPad sell-through to stay somewhat consistent with 3Q13, reflecting some benefit from back to school shopping.
iPod: 3.7 million (30% yoy decline)iPhone: 34.4 million (28% yoy growth)
- I ordered my gold iPhone 5s online seven minutes after launch and my phone didn’t ship until September 30, two days after quarter end, so it’s clear that a large number of iPhone 5s launch sales will be pushed into 1Q14. Partially offsetting delayed 5s launch sales was solid 5c supply. My 34.4 million iPhone number assumes 13-14 million units of iPhone 5s and 5c and 20 million units of legacy iPhone (5, 4S and 4) selling at roughly the same weekly sales pace seen in 3Q13 (2.6 million).