The Apple Ecosystem Is Humming Along (AVALON Podcast Episode)
In the 23rd episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
An inside look at how I model Apple financially and how I approach Apple earnings.
The two big takeaways from Apple's 4Q25 earnings.
Why Apple's HW results are improving.
How Apple's ecosystem is underpenetrated from a Services monetization.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Apple hits a $4 trillion market capitalization.
The Mac’s financial performance.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Online misinformation involving finance/stocks.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Neo the home robot.
Listen to the first four minutes of the episode below:
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My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings, How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings
How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Halloween edition of the Above Avalon Daily. While there may be some scary displays this evening trick-or-treating, Apple’s earnings release and call were the opposite of frightening. Let’s discuss. Today’s update will begin our Apple earnings review.
We will kick things off with my initial reaction to earnings. The second half of the update will go over the key numbers.
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Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings, iPhone’s Supply/Demand Imbalance, Apple Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings
iPhone’s Supply/Demand Imbalance
Apple Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap
Hello everyone. We are going to shift gears and focus on Apple’s upcoming earnings report. Apple will report earnings on Thursday. The next two updates will be dedicated to preparing for Apple’s earnings. My hope is to get the next update out later today.
Let’s begin our Apple 4Q25 preview.
An Above Avalon Daily subscription is required to read this daily update. Subscribers can read the update here.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership.
Choose either a monthly or annual subscription. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and subscription status at any time.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
Archive Access. Access previous updates sent to members in an easy-to-navigate archive built in Ghost.
Full Access to Above Avalon Forum. Access exclusive channels in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Email Access to Neil Cybart. Receive timely responses from Neil to email inquiries.
Access Bundle Discounts. Customize a subscription with additional Above Avalon products and save: AVALON, Podcasts Packages, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource. Above Avalon is 100% funded by subscribers.
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s Strong 3Q25 Earnings
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Friday edition of Above Avalon Daily. Apple reported 3Q25 earnings yesterday (Thursday). The results can be viewed here. Today's update will go over my initial thoughts on the release and earnings call. We will continue our discussion next week.
Have a great weekend.
Let's jump right into today's update.
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s Strong 3Q25 Earnings
Yesterday, Apple reported its strongest quarterly results in more than three years. Overall 3Q25 revenue was up 10%. We need to go back to 1Q22 for the last time Apple reported double-digit revenue growth (+11.2%). Results for iPhone and Mac were legitimately good. iPhone revenue was up 13% (strongest quarterly revenue growth since 4Q21) while Mac revenue was up 15% continuing what has been an upturn in the Mac business.
While the iPhone and Mac were the two Apple product categories that stood to see the greatest impact from a pull forward in demand related to tariff fears, Apple said such pull forward was not the primary driver for the strong quarterly performance. For iPhone, approximately 20% of 3Q25 revenue growth was attributed to pull forward. Overall, about 10% of Apple’s 3Q25 revenue growth was related to pull forward.
Apple also said iPhone channel inventory
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An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
Archive Access. Access previous newsletters sent to members.
Member Forum Access. Access all channels in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Email Access. Receive timely responses from Neil to email inquiries.
Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the AVALON, Podcasts, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.