
Meta 1Q25 Earnings, Zuckerberg’s Five AI Opportunities, Meta is CoComelon for Adults
Hello everyone. We will use today’s update to circle back to Meta’s latest earnings report. The company reported earnings a few weeks ago. While Meta is the most direct competitor to Apple among Big Tech companies, there are some signs of the companies’ product paths, which have been getting closer to each other, potentially staying apart.
Meta 1Q25 Earnings
The big picture was very much intact with Meta’s 1Q25 earnings. Digital ads strength is more than offsetting atrocious losses in Reality Labs.
With 1Q25 revenue up 16% and costs up 9%, Meta’s operating margin grew to 41% from 38%. As previously disclosed, the company benefited from an “extension of server useful lives.” Said another way, depreciation wasn’t as bad as it otherwise would have been. Ad impressions were up 5% (primarily Asia-Pacific) while average price per ad was up 10%.
One additional point regarding expenses: Meta’s general and administrative expense fell by a whopping 34% year-over-year – a $1.2B drop – due to lower legal costs. That helped to offset more than half of the year-over-year increase in R&D (+22%).
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The WSJ’s Sketchy iPhone Pricing Article, Does Apple Need Higher iPhone Pricing?, Does iPhone 16e Provide Pricing Clues?
Happy Monday. We will jump into today's update with a recent story from the WSJ regarding iPhone pricing. Let's jump right in.
The WSJ’s Sketchy iPhone Pricing Article
Here’s the WSJ:
“Apple is weighing price increases for its fall iPhone lineup, a step it is seeking to couple with new features and design changes, according to people familiar with the matter.
The company is determined to avoid any scenario in which it appears to attribute price increases to U.S. tariffs on goods from China, where most Apple devices are assembled, the people said.
The U.S. and China agreed Monday to suspend most of the tariffs they had imposed on each other in a tit-for-tat trade war. But a 20% tariff that President Trump imposed early in his second term on Chinese goods, citing what he said was Beijing’s role in the fentanyl trade, remains in place and covers smartphones.
Trump had exempted smartphones and some other electronics products from a separate ‘reciprocal’ tariff on Chinese goods, which will temporarily fall to 10% from 125% under Monday’s trade deal.
New iPhones set to be released in the fall include some design and format changes, including an ultrathin design, The Wall Street Journal has reported.”
Nothing found in this article makes me think the WSJ knows what Apple may or may not do with this year’s new flagship iPhones. The WSJ’s “sources” in the supply chain are not going to know Apple’s iPhone pricing strategy. Apple pricing rumors should be discounted in general as Apple is able to keep pricing information under wraps.
For the past few years, price increases have been rumored ahead of Apple’s busy fall release cycle.
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Apple Unveils CarPlay Ultra, CarPlay Ultra vs. CarPlay, Revisiting CarPlay Strategy
Hello everyone. This may be the first time two updates were published on the same day. For a decent portion of you, it’s already Friday. Accordingly, let’s date this update May 16th.
With WWDC a few weeks away, Apple is sticking with the pattern used the past few years in announcing a few new features ahead of its developer conference. Today’s update will be dedicated to discussing CarPlay Ultra.
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Notes From Apple 2Q25 10-Q, Apple Buyback Tidbits, Forecasting Apple’s Share Buyback Pace
Hello everyone. Although we concluded our Apple 2Q25 earnings review a few days ago, we still needed to quickly go over Apple’s 2Q25 10-Q filing. We will kick off today’s update with that filing. Our attention will then shift to Apple’s share buyback program.
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Apple Requests App Store Stay Motion, The Four-Prong Test, Apple’s Odds of Success
Hello everyone.
Last week, Apple filed an emergency motion for a partial stay pending its appeal of the App Store anti-steering injunction ruling. In layman’s terms, Apple is asking the appeals court to temporarily halt some of Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers' App Store directives while Apple’s appeal works through the system. While the appeal will take at least six months to play out, this emergency motion should be addressed by the court this month.
Taking a step back from this motion, the broader App Store injunction ruling and the ongoing Google search antitrust case are weighing on Apple in terms of Wall Street (concerns regarding financial impact) and Main Street (concerns regarding customer experience impact). You can feel the angst in the air. Apple’s stay motion, if granted, will reduce some of that angst.
One quick note before jumping into today's update: I launched Above Avalon membership 10 years today. May 13th, 2015. Over the past 10 years, ~1,900 daily updates have been published. Today's daily podcast episode was the 850th episode. A big thank you to all members, especially those who have been with me since Day 1.
Let’s jump in.
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Eddy Cue Talks up AI Search, Google’s Response to Cue’s Testimony, Future of Search
Happy Monday. Yet again, we begin a new week with a lot of news.
Late last week, Apple filed its motion to stay related to the anti-steering rule. The filing is on my “will discuss” list for this week.
There is news regarding the U.S. and China reaching some sort of trade de-escalation in which U.S. tariffs on goods from China have been reduced from 145% to 30% for three months.
The WSJ is out with a report saying Apple is thinking about raising prices for new iPhones that will be unveiled later this year.
One quick note regarding Apple earnings: Our 2Q25 earnings review is pretty much complete. There may be time this week to quickly circle back to the 10-Q and a few buyback observations.
Today’s update will be focused on Eddy Cue’s testimony at the Google trial making waves. The Court is hearing testimony as part of the remedies phase for Google’s antitrust trial. Let’s jump right in.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Hello everyone. Today’s update will continue our Apple earnings review.
Here’s a recap of where things stand:
Last Friday: Overview / Apple’s results vs. my expectations.
Yesterday: Three sub-themes / charts arising from 2Q25 earnings.
Today: Reviewing the Q&A from Apple’s earnings call.
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 14th installment of reading between the lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Parekh”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Insider Monkey offers a written transcript here.
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Apple’s 2Q25 in Three Charts
We are going to change gears and return to discussing Apple’s 2Q25 earnings release. Today’s update will go over three themes, and corresponding charts, arising from Apple’s quarterly results.
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Judge Gonzalez Rogers’ App Store Pretzels, The Case for Apple’s Appeal, Potential App Store Fallout
Hello everyone. Happy Tuesday. There is a lot to go over in today’s update. We will continue our discussion from yesterday involving the latest App Store ruling from Judge Gonzalez Rogers.
The plan is to use Wednesday’s update to circle back to Apple’s 2Q25 earnings review.
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Apple Receives App Store Gut Punch in U.S., The Absurdity of It All, An App Store Dilemma
Hello everyone. Last Friday’s update was focused on Apple’s 2Q25 earnings. We will continue my earnings review later this week.
My full notes from last week's App Store anti-steering court ruling came out to about a week’s worth of updates. The 80-page ruling can be found here. Instead of spending four updates on the topic, my notes will be consolidated into two updates. For today, we are going to tackle a few major points that have been on my mind the past few days. Tomorrow’s update will discuss the points in greater detail. This is a crazy development that is up there as one of the more unusual turn of events that Apple has faced.
Let’s jump in.
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Thoughts on Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. Today's update will go over Apple's earnings.
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Previewing Apple’s 2Q25 Earnings
Hello everyone. The news flow isn't taking a break. The ongoing Epic Games vs. Apple legal battle in the U.S. took a sharp turn against Apple. There is a lot to discuss from the court ruling involving anti-steering. The timing for having that discussion isn't great though with Apple earnings on our doorstep.
Here's the game plan:
We will go forward as we were with preparing for and then reviewing Apple's earnings. In today’s update, we will preview the release. Apple plans to release earnings tomorrow (Thursday) after market close. The report usually comes out at 4:30 PM ET.
In order to go over Apple's earnings on a timely manner, Thursday's update will come out early Friday (ET).
We will talk about the ruling early next week (i.e. Monday). Depending on what Apple reports on Thursday, we will then circle back to reviewing earrings later next week.
Earlier today, Alphabet / Google CEO Sundar Pichai testified in court, as part of Google’s antitrust remedies phase, that Google hopes to integrate Gemini with Apple Intelligence (iPhones) in 2025. The timeline makes a WWDC unveiling possible. This disclosure comes at a good time as we just discussed in yesterday’s update why Google needs such integration.
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Alphabet 1Q25 Earnings, Google Gemini Lagging Behind ChatGPT, Google Needs Apple
Happy Tuesday.
We are going to switch from Netflix, which arguably has the simplest growth narrative involving getting more people to pay more for content, to Google, a company struggling to explain its growth narrative. Given the way the schedule turned out, we didn’t cover Alphabet’s 4Q24 earnings three months ago. Accordingly, it's been a while since we last talked about Alphabet in depth.
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Netflix 1Q25 Earnings, Netflix’s $1T Ambition, Churn in Paid Streaming
Welcome to a new week. Apple will report FY2Q25 earnings on Thursday. We will dedicate Wednesday’s update to previewing Apple’s earnings.
For today’s update, we will focus on Netflix’s earnings. The company reported earnings two weeks ago.
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Apple Watch Turns 10 Years Old, Apple Watch: By the Numbers, Looking Ahead
Hello everyone.
Today’s update will be dedicated to Apple Watch. Ten years ago today, the Apple Watch went on sale in what was a highly anticipated launch. The Apple Watch was the first major new product category to launch during the Tim Cook era.
To mark the anniversary, Apple is running a few marketing promotions tied to the Activity app, the most popular and used app on Apple Watch, including a new Global Close Your Rings Day award.
Every Apple product has its own unique history and story. In some ways, Apple Watch’s story is intertwined with Apple betting on itself as it pertains to pushing personal technology.
In addition to going over my broader thoughts on the Apple Watch business 10 years in, we go over my estimates for various Apple Watch financial items. The update concludes with a look at the future.
Let’s jump in.
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Early Thoughts on Tariff Impact on Apple’s Financials, Apple Valuation Update
Hello everyone.
Apple reports earnings on May 1st. We will go over my detailed earnings expectations early next week.
To tie up a few loose ends that are still outstanding on the tariff front, there is value in going over my early thoughts on how tariffs will impact Apple’s financials over the next few quarters.
After what seemed to be a good two to three years of noisy Apple quarters coming out of the pandemic, there were expectations that the second half of 2024 and 2025 would provide a cleaner look at Apple’s underlying business fundamentals. Given the various moving pieces related to tariffs, Apple's FY2025 may turn out to be a noisy year from a financials perspective.
Let’s jump in for more discussion.
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Apple and Tariffs (Let’s Talk Sectoral Tariffs)
Hello everyone. Today’s discussion will be focused on sectoral tariffs tied to semiconductors. There is plenty to cover including differences between reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, the Trump administration’s goal(s) for semiconductors, and the various unanswered questions found with the topic.
Let’s jump right in.
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Apple and Tariffs (Exemptions Granted, With a Twist)
Hello everyone. It feels good to be back after some time off for spring break.
On the tariff front, the major news involving exemptions broke a few hours after the most recent daily update was published on Friday, April 11th. Accordingly, we are going to dedicate today’s update to going over the tariff exemptions. The way these exemptions subsequently played out on social media then fueled an interesting twist involving sectorial tariffs.
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Apple and Tariffs (Part 4)
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our multi-day discussion involving everything tariffs. After today’s discussion, we will be in good shape in terms of addressing most outstanding questions involving Apple and tariffs. In terms of accuracy, we are right on track with how events on the ground have been unfolding. One of my goals for this week’s discussion has been to not get caught up in the craziness – most of which is unnecessary and driven by social media.
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Apple and Tariffs (Part 3)
Hello everyone. Happy Wednesday.
After a few days of little to no clarity on tariffs, there was quite a bit of news today. We will keep going with this week’s format of having one multi-day discussion. Let’s jump right in.
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