Acquiring TBPN Is an OpenAI Hail Mary Pass (Inside Orchard)
OpenAI is spooked. Thanks to Anthropic grabbing a series of business, financial, and product wins along with the need to improve finances ahead of an IPO, OpenAI has been making one change after another in a bid to clean up house. The latest move, acquiring TBPN, is a Hail Mary pass that strikes me as having low odds of succeeding. OpenAI is looking for a way to reach consumers, and they think two tech podcasters with marketing experience hold the keys to unlocking the strategy.
Started just 13 months ago, TBPN is an 11-employee media start-up that hosts a daily three-hour talk show livestreamed on various social media platforms. The livestreams are then cut into short clips that are circulated on the same social media platforms. It’s the clips, not the multi-hour livestreams, that grab the most attention.
TBPN positioned itself as an antidote to legacy media’s tech cynicism. Along those lines, they have been so successful as to be a caricature – a show that could easily be mocked on SNL. By being so over the top, optimistic, and promotional, TBPN was able to build authenticity with a younger audience that is mentally all-in on AI mania.
TBPN’s daily livestream was deemed early on by PR teams across Silicon Valley to be a safe space. At least up until yesterday, TBPN was
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AI Is in a Weird Place Right Now (Inside Orchard)
Three years into AI mania, things continue to be volatile. The items capturing buzz continue to evolve while consumers are looking at AI with increasingly divergent viewpoints.
Consider the following AI developments that have been on my radar:
Chatbot platform craze has cooled. Efforts to turn chatbots into new-age digital platforms are not going as smoothly as some companies planned. The idea of using apps within ChatGPT, not surprisingly, has flatlined. The same goes for agentic commerce. Walmart provided the latest evidence that chatbot usage isn’t trending like some proponents hoped – purchase conversion inside ChatGPT was one-third the rate of purchase conversion on Walmart’s website.
Mania has turned to utility agents. OpenClaw and Claude Code are grabbing the buzz that previously went to consumer-oriented chatbots. In the process, AI utility has become more niche and difficult to access for the mass market. ChatGPT usage
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The Apple Silicon Renaissance (Inside Orchard)
For the past 10 days, an all-new $599 MacBook has captivated the tech press. A laptop grabbing so much attention in 2026 probably wasn’t on too many prediction lists. The situation may lead people to wonder if we are seeing something of a laptop renewal or even renaissance. Such an assertion doesn’t sit right with me. After spending some time with MacBook Neo, the takeaway isn’t that the laptop is being rethought or rejuvenated. Instead, we are still seeing ramifications associated with Apple’s original bet on custom silicon.
Many of the prognostications that have been made regarding laptops / desktops and their relationship to smartphones, tablets, and wearables have turned out to be mostly accurate. Smartphone and tablet sales exceed laptop / desktop sales a few times over. Within the Apple installed base, there are nearly 4x more iPhones than iPads out in the wild while iPads outnumber Macs by 2x.
At a very high level, MacBook Neo is Apple betting on
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Anthropic Is Grabbing Wins (Inside Orchard)
Although we are only three months into 2026, this is shaping up to be a good year for Anthropic. The company can count a number of business, product, and branding wins that will be valuable in pursuing an IPO. At the heart of this development is a company willing to put aside near-term revenue generation in order to stand for something. It’s a trait that is increasingly not talked about enough or prioritized by tech companies.
Anthropic’s wins have included:
Super Bowl Ad. Anthropic found itself in the middle of one of the livelier tech advertising controversies in recent memory. Following OpenAI’s decision to embrace advertising in ChatGPT, Anthropic unleashed a marketing campaign for Claude aimed at throwing doubt on ad-laden chatbots. I found the commercials to be humorous but depressing as they humanized just how cold and sterile chatbots are to use. The ads were a success for Anthropic as they generated a large amount of publicity and spooked OpenAI to the point of Sam Altman crying foul. If Anthropic goes on to greatness, the ad campaign will be looked back on as marking an even bigger win.
Claude Code. Thanks to Claude Code, Anthropic finds
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Apple Closes Education Discount Loophole, Kansas City Schools to Become “All-Apple,” Real Madrid on Apple Vision Pro
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Closes Education Discount Loophole
Kansas City Schools to Become “All-Apple”
Real Madrid on Apple Vision Pro
The update begins with Neil’s thoughts on Apple once again utilizing verification for customers utilizing education pricing in the U.S. The discussion then turns to Apple securing a nice win from Kansas City public schools deciding to become an “all-Apple” district. We conclude with Apple’s latest Apple Immersive Video - “Real Madrid: The Weight of Greatness.”
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Google I/O 2026, Google Search Is AI Search, Too Overwhelming
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Google I/O 2026
Google Search Is AI Search
Too Overwhelming
The update will be dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts regarding Google’s I/O developer conference keynote (available here via YouTube). Discussion topics include how Google’s keynote could have been split into two parts, the head fake involving Google Search, and how Google’s AI embrace is so overwhelming.
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Meta Revenue Continues to Impress, Zuckerberg on Agents, HW as a Meta Distraction
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Meta Revenue Continues to Impress
Zuckerberg on Agents
HW as a Meta Distraction
We will begin circling back to some of the more interesting CY1Q26 earnings releases. Today’s update will be focused on Meta. The update covers Meta’s impressive revenue growth. We then turn to Meta’s spending, where angst is found along two vectors. The discussion then turns to Mark Zuckerberg’s ironic comments regarding AI and agents. We conclude with why Neil thinks hardware is a distraction for Meta.
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Android Show 2026, Google Gives Googlebook Sneak Peek, A Neo Competitor?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Android Show 2026
Google Gives Googlebook Sneak Peek
A Neo Competitor?
We will continue the Google discussion as the company made quite a few announcements this week ahead of its I/O developer conference. The update kicks off with Neil’s takeaways from Google’s Android Show 2026 presentation. Attention then turns to Googlebook. Is Googlebook a Chromebook successor? Neil shares his perspective on the answer.
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Google Unveils Rebranded Health App, Google Unveils Fitbit Air, Google Health Coach
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Google Unveils Rebranded Health App
Google Unveils Fitbit Air
Google Health Coach
We kick off today’s update with Google looking to reinvigorate its consumer-oriented health strategy by rebranding the Fitbit app to the Google Health app. The discussion then turns to Neil’s thoughts on the all-new Fitbit Air. We conclude the update with Google Health Coach.
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Apple Raises Entry-Level Mac Mini Price, DRAM and NAND Impact on iPhone, Apple Device SKU Management
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Raises Entry-Level Mac Mini Price
DRAM and NAND Impact on iPhone
Apple Device SKU Management
We begin today’s update with a change to the Mac mini line. The discussion then shifts to memory (DRAM) and storage (NAND). Consensus may be overestimating the degree to which higher DRAM) and NAND pricing will impact Apple’s gross margins. We conclude with a closer look at how potentially prioritizing SKUs with higher margins represents one strategy for how Apple plans to navigate massive price increases in DRAM and NAND.
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Apple and Intel to Partner on Chips, How Apple Benefits, TSMC Isn’t Going Anywhere
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple and Intel to Partner on Chips
How Apple Benefits
TSMC Isn’t Going Anywhere
We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on Apple and Intel reportedly reaching a deal regarding chips. The discussion includes four main ways that Apple stands to benefit from the deal. We conclude with why TSMC, Apple’s current chip supplier, isn’t going anywhere.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 2Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts, Takeaways From Apple’s 2Q26 10-Q, Subscriber Q&A
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 2Q26 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Takeaways From Apple’s 2Q26 10-Q
Subscriber Q&A
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 2Q26 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call. The discussion then turns to the most interesting takeaways from Apple’s 2Q26 10-Q. The update concludes with the latest installment of subscriber Q&A in which Neil answers the following questions from Above Avalon Daily subscribers:
Could Apple’s decision to slow down its buyback be due to concerns found with higher memory pricing?
Why would Apple CEO succession lead to a dramatic shift in R&D spending plans? Wouldn’t Tim Cook have relied on John Ternus and others for advice and recommendations on what kind of investment pace was needed?
Is Apple looking to invest in their own semiconductor fabrication plant?
Are there any obvious Apple products that can be deemphasized following these Apple leadership changes?
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Apple Halts Share Buyback, Apple’s Net Cash Trajectory, Net Cash Neutral vs. Excess Cash
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Halts Share Buyback
Apple’s Net Cash Trajectory
Net Cash Neutral vs. Excess Cash
Following Apple’s earnings release, the most prevalent incoming question dealt with Apple’s decision to sunset its net cash neutral goal. While we went over my initial thoughts on the topic in last Friday’s update, there’s room to go deeper. Before we get to net cash, we will discuss the latest developments regarding Apple’s share buyback program.
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Apple’s 2Q26 In Three Charts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Apple’s 2Q26 In Three Charts
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. We will continue our Apple 2Q26 earnings review by focusing on three data points that did a great job of telling the subplots underpinning the quarterly numbers. The iPhone was responsible for 60% of Apple’s revenue growth, the Mac is on track to see the strongest unit sales growth of any Apple product category, while R&D expense as a percent of revenue reflects change in the air.
Let’s discuss.
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Apple Earnings, Stellar iPhone Demand, Apple Sunsets Net Cash Neutral Target
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Earnings
Stellar iPhone Demand
Apple Sunsets Net Cash Neutral Target
Hello everyone. Welcome to May. This is a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily as we analyze Apple’s 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance.
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Previewing Apple’s 2Q26 Earnings: Above Avalon Estimates
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Previewing Apple’s 2Q26 Earnings: Above Avalon Estimates
Today’s update will conclude our Apple 2Q26 earnings preview. Apple reports earnings tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30 pm ET. The next update will go out Friday in the AM.
My updated Apple earnings model (works with Excel and Numbers) with revised 2Q26 and FY26 estimates is now available to those of you who have an Above Avalon Models subscription attached to your Above Avalon Daily subscription. To access the earnings model, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here). Once signed in, go to the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized page where the model can be downloaded. If you are interested in subscribing to Above Avalon Models, learn more about the subscription and accompanying bundle savings at this page.
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Previewing Apple’s 2Q26: It’s All About Product Supply
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Previewing Apple’s 2Q26: It’s All About Product Supply
Hello everyone.
Our attention will shift to Apple earnings. Apple will report FY2Q26 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update will kick off our earnings preview while tomorrow’s update (Wednesday PM) will include my granular estimates.
My updated Apple earnings model will also go live tomorrow (Wednesday PM) for those subscribed to Above Avalon Models (more information is available here).
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Where Apple Is Headed
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Where Apple Is Headed
Hello everyone. This is shaping up to a busy week.
Apple reports FY2Q26 earnings on Thursday. We will utilize tomorrow’s update to begin going over my expectations heading into earnings. Each Apple earnings report has its unique characteristics and tone. This week’s earnings release has the potential of being quite unusual.
For today’s update, we will wrap up the initial wave of analysis regarding Apple’s next leadership era. Given last week’s Apple CEO transition news, much attention is being placed on where the company is headed from a product perspective.
To recap the past few updates:
Tuesday (April 21st): Apple’s next leadership era (what Apple announced, Tim Cook’s new role, announcement timing)
Thursday (April 23rd): What Apple may look like with John Ternus as CEO.
Today: Where Apple is headed (from a product perspective).
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What Apple May Look Like With John Ternus as CEO
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
What Apple May Look Like With John Ternus as CEO
Hello everyone. We will continue our discussion from Tuesday.
Today’s update essentially combines what would have been two updates. Given the amount to digest, there may be some follow-up next week.
After reading today’s update, if you have questions that you would like addressed or featured, send them my way.
As people continue to digest this week’s Apple leadership transition news, there has been a desire to contemplate how Ternus will lead Apple.
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Apple's Next Leadership Era
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
John Ternus to Succeed Tim Cook as Apple CEO
Cook to Become Apple Executive Chairman
Timing Looks Perfect
Hello everyone. We are going to jump straight into today’s update dedicated to the big news regarding Apple CEO succession.
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