4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base, Apple Watch Adoption Figures

October 12, 2022 by Neil Cybart

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base
Apple Watch Adoption Figures

The email kicks off with Neil’s estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base (the number of Apple Watches in the wild) as of the end of September 2022. Our focus then turns to Neil’s estimate regarding Apple Watch adoption as a percentage of the number of iPhone users. We look at how Apple Watch adoption has changed over time.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

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Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.
Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.
Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

The Number of Apple Watches in the Wild, Apple Watch Adoption Estimates, Apple Watch Upgrading Trends

September 30, 2021 by Neil Cybart

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

The Number of Apple Watches in the Wild
Apple Watch Adoption Estimates
Apple Watch Upgrading Trends

As mentioned earlier this week, we will begin going through my revised financial estimates for various parts of Apple’s business. In today’s update, we focus on the Apple Watch. It’s been six months since we talked about the Apple Watch installed base. We kick things off by going over my Apple Watch installed base estimate. Our focus then turns to my estimate regarding Apple Watch adoption as a percentage of the number of iPhone users. The update concludes with a look at Apple Watch upgrading trends and which Apple Watch users are in a position to upgrade to a new Apple Watch over the next 12 months.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple Watch’s Regulatory Risk, Thoughts on Apple Watch ASP, Regal Cinemas Suspends Operations

October 05, 2020 by Neil Cybart

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Apple Watch’s Regulatory Risk
Thoughts on Apple Watch ASP
Regal Cinemas Suspends Operations

We begin today’s update with my thoughts on what Apple Watch’s lack of genuine competition means for Apple from a regulation perspective. In particular, I address the following questions: Does Apple Watch's momentum represent a hole in Apple’s anti-monopoly argument? Can Apple claim that it faces competition in smartwatches? The update then turns to my estimates regarding Apple Watch sales mix by model as well as my average selling price (ASP) expectations. We conclude with more bad news for the movie theater industry as Regal suspends operations indefinitely. The discussion goes over my stance on movie theaters and how the industry’s troubled future can boost paid video streaming services.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Thoughts on iPhone Widgets, iPhone Widgets vs. Apple Watch, Apple Watch Adoption Estimates

September 23, 2020 by Neil Cybart

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Thoughts on iPhone Widgets
iPhone Widgets vs. Apple Watch
Apple Watch Adoption Estimates

We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on iPhone widgets in iOS 14. The discussion then turns to the relationship between iPhone widgets and Apple Watch. We go over why I think Apple Watch has removed some of the oxygen surrounding iPhone widgets and how widgets end up being a bridge between the iPhone and Apple Watch. The update concludes with my estimates and calculations for the percentage of iPhone users who wear an Apple Watch. We look at the numbers both globally and for the U.S.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Where's the Apple Watch Competition?, Netflix Wins Seinfeld, Thursday Q&A

September 19, 2019 by Neil Cybart

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Where's the Apple Watch Competition?
Netflix Wins Seinfeld
Thursday Q&A

We begin today’s update with my thoughts on why Apple Watch lacks genuine smartwatch competition. The discussion then turns to Netflix winning the rights to “Seinfeld.” We go over why my initial reaction to the news was laughter. We conclude with a new installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

Why didn’t the Apple Watch Series 5 receive a processor upgrade?
Do I think we’ll see a substantial upgrade to Siri in 2020?
Will the new AirPods contain refinements that make them closer to hearing aids?
What are my thoughts on allegations that Apple’s senior leaders are overworked and spread too thin?

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.