U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban, Apple’s Response, Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban

  • Apple’s Response

  • Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch

The most recent Above Avalon Report, which went out to everyone via email on December 22nd and via podcast to members with the podcast add-on, was about Apple Watch Ultra / Ultra 2. In tomorrow's update, we will talk about a few things that didn't make it into the report. For today, we will look at the latest regarding the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 U.S. ban. The discussion includes a closer look at Apple’s response and why Neil isn’t concerned about Apple Watch.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil Cybart’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Customization Options. Members have the option of attaching various add-ons to their membership to customize their membership to their liking. Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons can be attached and then later removed seamlessly online.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,500+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Consumers Spending Less on Electronics, Impact on Apple, Swiss Watch Sales Data for 2022

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Consumers Spending Less on Electronics

  • Impact on Apple

  • Swiss Watch Sales Data for 2022

We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on Walmart and Home Depot pointing to major shifts in how consumers are spending their money. We look specifically at the impact the trend will have on Apple. The update concludes with an examination of Swiss watch industry sales for 2022 and why Neil thinks Apple Watch continues to impact the Swiss.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential, Apple Contemplating Apple TV Ad Play, ByteDance Planning Spotify Battle

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential

  • Apple Contemplating Apple TV Ad Play

  • ByteDance Planning Spotify Battle

The email kicks off with Neil’s estimate for how large the Apple Watch business can become in five years. We then discuss a rumor suggesting Apple is thinking about bringing advertising to Apple TV. The update concludes with Neil’s thoughts on ByteDane, TikTok’s parent, wanting to compete more directly with Spotify. We go over why Spotify should take such a competitive threat seriously.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base, Apple Watch Adoption Figures

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • 4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base

  • Apple Watch Adoption Figures

The email kicks off with Neil’s estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base (the number of Apple Watches in the wild) as of the end of September 2022. Our focus then turns to Neil’s estimate regarding Apple Watch adoption as a percentage of the number of iPhone users. We look at how Apple Watch adoption has changed over time.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching the podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

More on Apple Watch Series 7, Apple Watch vs. iPhone Sales, Apple Watch Installed Base Mix by Model

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • More on Apple Watch Series 7

  • Apple Watch vs. iPhone Sales

  • Apple Watch Installed Base Mix by Model

Yesterday, I published my initial impressions wearing an Apple Watch Series 7. You can read the article here and watch the accompanying video here. Overall, I was very impressed. In today’s update, we will talk more about Apple Watch strategy. In addition, we will go over my assumptions and estimates for Apple Watch sales. We look at a key difference between Apple Watch and iPhone sales. The update concludes with my estimates for the number of people wearing each Apple Watch series.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My Full Notes From Apple Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 2Q21 earnings review. We discuss my full notes and focus on the financial numbers from Apple’s earnings release that jumped out at me. The email covers 20 different topics.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple Earnings, Deconstructing Apple’s Growth, A Margins Rocket, Apple's Stingy Dividend Increase

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Apple Earnings

  • Deconstructing Apple’s Growth

  • A Margins Rocket

  • Apple's Stingy Dividend Increase

Today's update will be dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2Q21 earnings. We begin by going over Apple’s financial results and how the numbers compared to my estimates. We then look at the drivers behind Apple’s strong revenue growth. There is value in deconstructing Apple’s 2Q21 revenue growth to get a cleaner look at how Apple’s ecosystem is performing. The discussion then turns to Apple’s stellar margins. The update concludes with what I think is going on with Apple’s stingy dividend increases.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple Contemplating Apple Watch Explorer Model, Thinking About the Apple Watch Line, Apple Watch Partnerships

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Apple Contemplating Apple Watch Explorer Model

  • Thinking About the Apple Watch Line

  • Apple Watch Partnerships

It’s been a while since we took a good look at Apple Watch strategy from the perspective of collections, models, and partnerships. Today’s update will be dedicated to that topic. We begin with a timely Apple Watch scoop from Bloomberg.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

My iPad Installed Base Estimate, Apple Watch Installed Base Math, Apple Watch Upgrading

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • My iPad Installed Base Estimate

  • Apple Watch Installed Base Math

  • Apple Watch Upgrading

We kick off today’s update with my estimates and calculations for the number of iPads currently in use. The update then turns to the math behind my estimate that 100 million people now wear an Apple Watch. The discussion includes my thoughts on Apple Watch upgrading trends over the next 12 to 24 months.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q20 Earnings Review (Consolidated)

Neil’s Apple 4Q20 earnings review was discussed in two separate daily updates. The various sections are consolidated in this post.

Earnings review sections:

Major Takeaways

  • Full Steam Ahead for Apple

  • 4Q20: By the Numbers

  • Tim Cook’s Tone

  • iPhone Results: Messy but Good

  • Non-iPhone Business Firing on All Cylinders

  • Keeping an Eye on Europe and India

  • iPad and Mac Inflection Point?

  • 1Q21 Bonanza

Full Notes and Granular Takeaways (covers 28 different topics)

Above Avalon membership is required to read Neil’s 5,100-word Apple 4Q20 earnings review. Members can read the review here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature). More information about the daily podcast is available here.

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q20 Earnings Review (Second Half)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of Neil’s Apple 4Q20 earnings review. We discuss Neil’s full notes and focus on the granular takeaways from Apple’s earnings.

The 2,700-word email covers 28 different topics.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

(The first half of Neil’s earnings review focused on the major themes and takeaways is available here.)

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature). More information about the daily podcast is available here.

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Thoughts on iPhone Widgets, iPhone Widgets vs. Apple Watch, Apple Watch Adoption Estimates

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Thoughts on iPhone Widgets

  • iPhone Widgets vs. Apple Watch

  • Apple Watch Adoption Estimates

We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on iPhone widgets in iOS 14. The discussion then turns to the relationship between iPhone widgets and Apple Watch. We go over why I think Apple Watch has removed some of the oxygen surrounding iPhone widgets and how widgets end up being a bridge between the iPhone and Apple Watch. The update concludes with my estimates and calculations for the percentage of iPhone users who wear an Apple Watch. We look at the numbers both globally and for the U.S.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter, The Power of Apple Retained Earnings, Imploding Demand for Fitbit

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

  • Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter

  • The Power of Apple Retained Earnings

  • Imploding Demand for Fitbit

We kick off today’s update by examining Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Berkshire Hathaway is Apple’s largest individual shareholder. Accordingly, there is value in keeping on top of Berkshire and Warren Buffett (Berkshire’s CEO and Chairman of the Board). The discussion then turns to retained earnings and why Apple’s retained earnings are such a powerful tool. We conclude with Fitbit’s awful 4Q19 earnings and why the company represents such a problem for Google.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Neil’s Apple financial estimates.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.

  • Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 3Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.

The email includes the following sections:

  • 3Q19: By the Numbers

  • We Are in the Apple Wearables Era

  • A China Rebound

  • The Apple Services Narrative Is Wrong

  • iPhone Stabilization

  • Share Buyback Bonanza

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

(The second half of my earnings review focused on the details granular takeaways is available here.)

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

  • Apple business and strategy analysis.

  • Apple financial estimates.

  • My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

  • Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 


Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

  • Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.

  • Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

  • Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

  • Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

  • Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.