Calculating the iPhone Installed Base, Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles, New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Calculating the iPhone Installed Base
  • Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles
  • New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates

Today's update is focused on iPhone financials. We begin by going over my new financial model for estimating the iPhone installed base. We discuss my methodology, the growth in the installed base over time, and my estimate for the iPhone installed base as of September 2016. The email then goes over one method to segment iPhone users according to iPhone upgrade cycles. We conclude with a look at my new iPhone sales estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 and a few overall thoughts about the iPhone business given my new financial models. 

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