iPhone Sales Estimate Methodology, 1Q17 iPhone Installed Base Estimates, New 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates

Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories: 

  • iPhone Sales Estimate Methodology
  • 1Q17 iPhone Installed Base Estimates
  • New 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates

Today's email is focused on iPhone sales estimates. We begin by discussing my methodology for deriving iPhone unit sales estimates. The email then turns to the iPhone installed base. I share my estimates for the number of new iPhone users per year from 2007 to 2018, including my revised estimate for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base as of December 31, 2016. We conclude with my revised iPhone unit sales estimates for FY2017 and FY2018. We also go over my thoughts and observations on the idea of a "mega upgrade" cycle being kicked off by new iPhones later this year.

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