Apple 4Q19 Earnings Review (Full Notes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 4Q19 earnings review. We discuss my full notes and focus on the granular takeaways from Apple’s earnings report and conference call.

The 2,300-word email covers 25 different topics.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

(The first half of my earnings review focused on the major themes and takeaways is available here.)

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 4Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.

The 2,400-word email includes the following sections:

• The Big Picture

• Apple 4Q19: By the Numbers

• A Wearables Story

• iPad Strength

• Non-iPhone Business Momentum

• iPhone Divergence

• A Lack of China Discussion

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

(The second half of my earnings review focused on the granular takeaways and my full notes from Apple’s earnings report and conference call is available here.)

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Consolidated)

My Apple 4Q19 earnings preview was discussed in three separate daily updates. The various sections are consolidated in this post.

Earnings preview sections:

• Setting the Stage

• My Products and Services Estimates

• 1Q20 Guidance

• Updated Earnings Model (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit attached to Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.)

• Final Thoughts

Above Avalon membership is required to read my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. Members can read the preview here.

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 3 – 1Q20 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts), Tesla Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

• Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 3 – 1Q20 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)

• Tesla Earnings

Today's email concludes my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. We look at my 1Q20 revenue guidance projection and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.) We then go over my final thoughts heading into earnings next week. The email concludes with my thoughts on Tesla’s 3Q19 earnings.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

The first two parts of my 4Q19 earnings preview are available for members: here (setting the stage) and here (products and services estimates).

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 2 – Products and Services Estimates)

Today's email includes the second part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. We go over my financial estimates for the iPhone business (revenue, unit sales, and average selling price) and Apple’s non-iPhone business (Services, iPad, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories). The discussion includes my Apple Watch and AirPods sales estimates. We also go over the methodology behind all of my estimates.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

The first part of the preview (thoughts on Wall Street expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings) is available to members here. The final part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview going over 1Q20 guidance and my updated earnings model will be sent to members on Thursday (Oct 24th).

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage), Crunching iOS 13 and iPadOS Adoption Numbers, Inside Apple TV+

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

• Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)

• Crunching iOS 13 and iPadOS Adoption Numbers

• Inside Apple TV+

Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings. The discussion then turns to new disclosures from Apple related to iOS 13 and iPadOS adoption. For the first time, the company broke out the disclosure by iPhone and iPad to recognize iPadOS. This is helpful from our perspective as it is easier to reach more granular takeaways. The email concludes with a look at the most interesting tidbits found in Apple TV+ profiles from Wired and The Hollywood Reporter.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

The rest of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview will be sent to members on Wednesday (Oct 23rd) and Thursday (Oct 24th). Additional sections will include my financial estimates for Apple products and services, thoughts on 1Q20 guidance, and my updated earnings model.

---

Above Avalon Membership

Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.

Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:

• Apple business and strategy analysis.

• Apple financial estimates.

• My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.

• Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to. 

Member Privileges and Benefits

• Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.

• Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.

• Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.

• Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.

• Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.

• Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.

• Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.

• Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.