Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
Hello everyone.
Monday doubled as snowstorm cleanup day here in Connecticut. We received a little bit north of 16 inches, the most in about a decade. It certainly felt more during cleanup.
For today’s update, we will begin previewing Apple’s 1Q26 earnings which will be released on Thursday. The discussion will roll into tomorrow's update as well.
Previewing Apple’s 1Q26 Earnings: Wall Street Is on Edge
We are witnessing one of the largest divergences heading into an Apple earnings release in recent memory.
The company’s business fundamentals continue to improve. The company is going to report an all-time quarterly record on a few fronts on Thursday. Thanks to strong device sales trends and robust Services performance, revenue growth is trending 3x stronger than what it was last year at this time.
Set against these improving trends, Wall Street’s attitude and feelings toward Apple has turned negative over the past two months.
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Initial Thoughts on Apple’s Strong 3Q25 Earnings
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Friday edition of Above Avalon Daily. Apple reported 3Q25 earnings yesterday (Thursday). The results can be viewed here. Today's update will go over my initial thoughts on the release and earnings call. We will continue our discussion next week.
Have a great weekend.
Let's jump right into today's update.
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s Strong 3Q25 Earnings
Yesterday, Apple reported its strongest quarterly results in more than three years. Overall 3Q25 revenue was up 10%. We need to go back to 1Q22 for the last time Apple reported double-digit revenue growth (+11.2%). Results for iPhone and Mac were legitimately good. iPhone revenue was up 13% (strongest quarterly revenue growth since 4Q21) while Mac revenue was up 15% continuing what has been an upturn in the Mac business.
While the iPhone and Mac were the two Apple product categories that stood to see the greatest impact from a pull forward in demand related to tariff fears, Apple said such pull forward was not the primary driver for the strong quarterly performance. For iPhone, approximately 20% of 3Q25 revenue growth was attributed to pull forward. Overall, about 10% of Apple’s 3Q25 revenue growth was related to pull forward.
Apple also said iPhone channel inventory
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Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 3Q25 Earnings Release
Hello everyone. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. For today's update, we will begin to prepare for the earnings release.
Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 3Q25 Earnings Release
As we will discuss in greater detail tomorrow, Apple’s 3Q25 results should be relatively fine. Revenue growth will likely be close to 2Q25 levels while margins may get dinged a little bit by tariffs. And yet, the numbers themselves probably won’t matter a whole lot. Instead, Apple finds itself stuck in mud on Wall Street. A growing list of headwinds have contributed to Apple shares experiencing some of their worst underperformance relative to peers and the market in recent memory.
While every other Big Tech company has moved notably higher from the tariff-induced lows of early April, Apple has barely participated.
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Member Privileges and Benefits
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Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone. There’s a lot to say regarding Apple’s earnings. In this special Friday edition of Above Avalon Daily, we will go over my initial thoughts. The discussion will continue on Monday.
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