AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone), Swatch Issues Profit Warning, 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone)
- Swatch Issues Profit Warning
- 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
We begin today's email with the third installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. (Part 1 - Methodology was published in Monday's daily update, and Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch was published in yesterday's update). Along with going over my iPhone sales estimate, we discuss my broader views on the iPhone business heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to Swatch, the largest watchmaker in the world, issuing a profit warning on weak sales. We go over why so much attention is being given to Swatch and why some of the questionable actions being taken by the company suggest intense turmoil in the Swiss watch industry. The discussion then turns to new Microsoft Surface revenue data included in Microsoft's 2Q16 earnings release yesterday. We back into Surface shipment data and then compare it to my iPad and Mac 3Q estimates.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch), Netflix Has a Big Problem, SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch)
- Netflix Has a Big Problem
- SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
We kick off today's email with the second part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my revenue and unit sales estimates for Services, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. The email then turns to Netflix as the company reported earnings yesterday. Upon closer examination, I see the company facing a big problem in video streaming. There are also implications on how Apple may view video streaming. We conclude with my thoughts on SoftBank announcing its intention to buy ARM Holdings and what it may mean for Apple.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology), Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV, Line's IPO
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology)
- Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV
- Line's IPO
We begin today's email with the first part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my view on earnings previews and how my approach is different than Wall Street's. Today's update helps set the stage for the rest of this week's daily updates in which we cover my expectations headed into Apple's earnings release next Tuesday. The email then turns to Eddy Cue's interview with The Hollywood Reporter concerning TV. A few of his comments stood out to me. We conclude with a few brief observations on Line's IPO, including messaging platform valuation. We also discuss why the narrative that some of these messaging platforms are potential threats to Apple and iOS has been exaggerated.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Why Apple Even Bothers with Music, Spotify Is Moving the Goalposts, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Why Apple Even Bothers with Music
- Spotify Is Moving the Goalposts
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email by going over one of the common questions that I received this week regarding Apple's music ambitions: "Why should Apple care about owning the music industry?" We discuss how Apple thinks about music and why the company is dedicating resources and time to the endeavor. The email then turns to new Spotify subscriber numbers and evidence that the company is moving the goalposts when it comes to disclosing "paid" subscribers. This has implications when it comes to comparing Apple Music to Spotify. We conclude with Thursday Q&A (questions from Above Avalon members). This week's questions:
- Why aren't there any Apple Watch leaks?
- Is Tim Cook being conservative with his claim that Apple Watch sales will trend like iPod with sales centered around the holidays?
- Do you think Tesla's Autopilot should be recalled given the growing number of incidents?
- When do you write these daily updates?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Measuring Apple's Music Ambitions; Pokémon GO, Nintendo, and Wearables
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Measuring Apple's Music Ambitions
- Pokémon GO, Nintendo, and Wearables
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion found in my article, "Apple's Plan to Own the Entire Music Industry." Specifically, we assess Apple's odds of success in eventually capturing music streaming revenue share and grabbing most of the power in the music industry. The email then turns to one of the more intriguing discussion topics coming from the Pokémon GO phenomenon (which we discussed in detail in Monday's daily update). We discuss Nintendo's $35 Pokémon GO wristband and my thoughts on what it may mean for the broader wrist wearables industry. There is more intrigue with the product than what meets the eye.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Google Smartwatches, Slipping Mac Shipments, Problematic iPhone Customer Surveys
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Google Smartwatches
- Slipping Mac Shipments
- Problematic iPhone Customer Surveys
We kick off today's email with a closer look at reports that Google is planning on launching its own smartwatches. After going over some background on the wearables market, we discuss why Google feels such a move is needed and my thoughts on the company's prospects. The email then turns to the latest Gartner and IDC PC data, which points to another weak quarter for Mac sales. After going over the most likely reason for the weakness, we discuss why it is premature to write off future Mac unit sales growth. We conclude with thoughts on why I think customer purchase intention surveys dealing with iPhone upgrades have lost much of their value.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Strategy Clues Hidden in WatchOS 3, Thoughts on Third-Party Apple Watch Faces, Pokémon GO and the Art of Going Viral
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Strategy Clues Hidden in WatchOS 3
- Thoughts on Third-Party Apple Watch Faces
- Pokémon GO and the Art of Going Viral
We begin today's email with a closer look at Apple's "What's New in watchOS 3" session at WWDC. I had a number of observations regarding Apple's broader Watch strategy from reading in between the lines. The email then shifts to a few thoughts I have on the probability that we eventually see third-party Apple Watch faces. We conclude with a deep dive into the Pokémon Go phenomenon and a very simple observation when it comes to Apple.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Snapchat Memories Hint at Strategy Shift, Snapchat Camera Roll vs. iPhone Camera Roll, Elon Musk Is Becoming More Brazen
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Snapchat Memories Hint at Strategy Shift
- Snapchat Camera Roll vs. iPhone Camera Roll
- Elon Musk Is Becoming More Brazen
We kick off today's email by going over Snapchat's new Memories product. Snapchat is an interesting company to watch from Apple's perspective when discussing the competitive landscape and product strategies. After taking a closer look at Snapchat Memories, we go over why the product is a sign of shifting Snapchat strategy. We then compare Snapchat's new camera roll with the iPhone's Camera Roll. Should Apple be concerned about Snapchat going after the iPhone Camera and Photos apps? We conclude with my thoughts on how Elon Musk is becoming more brazen over the past few months and why I think Apple is the root cause.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Tesla's First Autopilot Fatality, Apple Will "Retire" the 16GB iPhone
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tesla's First Autopilot Fatality
- Apple Will "Retire" the 16GB iPhone
We begin today's email by taking a closer look at the first fatality involving Tesla's Autopilot technology. After going over the two types of reactions to the news, we discuss the primary questions raised by the incident and my view of how this situation will play itself out. The email then shifts to news that Apple will no longer position 16GB as the entry-level iPhone storage tier this fall. We go over the strategy behind Apple's storage tier configuration and my thoughts on Apple possibly having a few surprises in store when it comes to storage options across the iPhone lineup.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple In Talks to Buy Tidal, Jay Z's Importance to Apple Music, Calculating Tidal's Potential Price Tag
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple In Talks to Buy Tidal
- Jay Z's Importance to Apple Music
- Calculating Tidal's Potential Price Tag
We kick off today's email by discussing reports that Apple is in preliminary talks to buy Tidal, Jay Z's music streaming service. We first look at the news from Apple's perspective by going over Apple's views on music streaming dating back to its Beats acquisition. We then look at the potential deal from Tidal's perspective. After going over the single reason Apple would buy Tidal, we take a deep dive into why Jay Z would represent a crucial asset for Apple Music. The email then turns to how I am thinking about valuing Tidal in an Apple acquisition scenario.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Apple Watch Paradox, Math and Logic Behind My $10B Apple Watch Valuation, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Apple Watch Paradox
- Math and Logic Behind My $10B Apple Watch Valuation
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion found in my article, "Apple Watch Is Already a $10 Billion Business." Specifically, we look at how the Apple Watch has turned into a paradox. The email then turns to the math I used to obtain a $10 billion valuation for the Apple Watch business. We also discuss some of the logic I relied on to properly value Apple Watch's growth prospects. We conclude with Thursday Q&A (questions from Above Avalon members). This week's question:
- What do you make of Apple's unusual Apple Watch band retail strategy?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Path to Remove the iPhone Home Button, A Google Smartphone
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Path to Remove the iPhone Home Button
- A Google Smartphone
We kick off today's email by discussing the idea of Apple adding Force Touch to the iPhone home button this September. We go over implications of the move including how such a feature would represent a path for eventually removing the iPhone home button. The email then turns to reports that Google is planning to sell a Google-branded smartphone later this year. We go over Google's long-standing fascination with hardware and my thoughts on a Google smartphone.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
iPhone Headphone Jack Debate Is Off Base, Lyft Looking for Strategic Partners, Disney CEO Talks Business
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone Headphone Jack Debate Is Off Base
- Lyft Looking for Strategic Partners
- Disney CEO Talks Business
We begin today's email by taking a closer look at the growing debate concerning Apple removing the headphone jack from the upcoming new iPhones. Upon closer examination, I think the debate is off base and actually missing the fundamental drivers and motivation behind the move. The email then turns to reports that Lyft hired Frank Quattrone and Qatalyst Partners as well as a few observations I had about Lyft, ridesharing, and Apple. We conclude with takeaways from Disney CEO Bob Iger's interview with The Hollywood Reporter which covered ESPN, Silicon Valley getting into content creation and nurturing a storytelling culture.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Mapping Apple's Post-iPhone Era, Brexit and AAPL
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Mapping Apple's Post-iPhone Era
- Brexit and AAPL
We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion raised in my recent article about Apple's post-iPhone era. There were a few additional points related to how we would actually map out this new product era in terms of additional form factors and services. We then take a deep dive into Brexit and its impact on AAPL. After discussing a few headwinds created by the current situation, we also go over one AAPL benefit that may come from Brexit.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Tesla Offers to Buy SolarCity, Thursday Q&A
Today's daily update is focused on Tesla offering to buy SolarCity. The email is broken into five sections:
- Transaction Details
- Deal Rationale
- My Theory About the Offer
- Observations
- Implications for Apple
The email concludes with Thursday Q&A and the following question from an Above Avalon member: Is Apple making a strategic mistake by waiting a year to push significant iPhone updates?
The full daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read this daily update and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.