Thoughts on Upcoming iPhones, Supply Chain Hints at Major iPhone Changes in 2017, Disney to Launch ESPN Streaming Service
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Upcoming iPhones
- Supply Chain Hints at Major iPhone Changes in 2017
- Disney to Launch ESPN Streaming Service
We begin today's update with a closer look at two new iPhone reports. The first is focused on the upcoming iPhones to be unveiled next month. I share my perspective on the upcoming changes and what it means for Apple's iPhone business. Next, we look at the 2017 iPhone and the evidence that suggests Apple has very significant design changes in store. The email then turns to Disney buying a $1B stake in BAM Tech to launch its own ESPN-branded streaming service. We go over the new service and its prospects for success in a streaming world. We conclude with a discussion of what such a service reveals about Disney's relationship with Apple.
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Apple's Big Profile in Fast Company, Thoughts on Apple Watch 2.0, Bozoma Saint John
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Big Profile in Fast Company
- Thoughts on Apple Watch 2.0
- Bozoma Saint John
We kick off today's update with a look at Apple's profile in Fast Company. Tim Cook, Eddy Cue, and Craig Federighi sat down for an extensive interview about Apple's future. We discuss a few key items that stood out to me. The email then turns to new Apple Watch 2.0 rumors, including the idea of Apple launching two new Apple Watch models in September. We run through my thoughts on how I think Apple will approach the Apple Watch line next month. We conclude with a closer look at Bozoma Saint John, head of Apple Music marketing. She gave her first big interview as an Apple executive yesterday.
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Apple's Changing iPad Strategy, iPad Has Turned the Corner, New iPad Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Changing iPad Strategy
- iPad Has Turned the Corner
- New iPad Sales Estimates
We kick off today's iPad-centric update with a deep dive into Apple's iPad strategy. We expand on the points raised in last week's article, "The iPad's Dark Days Are Over," to look at the iPad business as having three distinct phases, with the latest phase just beginning. Then, using data for the number of iPads in use by model, we turn to the fundamental reason why I think the iPad business has turned the corner. We conclude by going over my revised iPad estimates for FY16 and FY17, including unit sales, revenue, and ASP trends.
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Tesla 2Q16 Earnings, 2Q16 Smartphone Market Deep Dive, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tesla 2Q16 Earnings
- 2Q16 Smartphone Market Deep Dive
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Tesla's earnings. I discuss the major takeaways from Tesla's earnings conference call, keeping Apple's Project Titan in mind. The email then turns to the latest IDC smartphone shipment data. We cover some of the major themes taking place in the smartphone market, including the increased chatter that iPhone hardware design seems to be falling behind the competition. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question from an Above Avalon member:
Why do the bond markets and equity markets have completely different outlooks for Apple?
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Fitbit Earnings, Apple's Debt Bonanza, Apple Holding the Line Against Tidal
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Earnings
- Apple's Debt Bonanza
- Apple Holding the Line Against Tidal
We kick off today's update with a deep dive into Fitbit's 2Q16 earnings. There were a number of interesting comments and items related to the wrist wearables space and health/fitness. We also compare Apple Watch unit sales and revenue to Fitbit unit sales and revenue over the past year. The email then turns to Apple's most recent debt issuance. I share some perspective on Apple's rising debt level and how it relates to Apple's overall risk level. We conclude by circling back to the Apple/Tidal acquisition rumors from last month. Kanye West confirmed many of my initial assumptions about Tidal. We go over where I think the Apple/Tidal talks currently stand and what I suspect to be the major sticking point.
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Apple's Failed TV Negotiations, Apple Buys CarPool Karaoke, Phil Schiller Joins Illumina Board
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Failed TV Negotiations
- Apple Buys CarPool Karaoke
- Phil Schiller Joins Illumina Board
We kick off today's update with a closer look at the WSJ's report on Apple's unsuccessful TV negotiations. We go over my perspective on Apple, TV, and why negotiations have been so unsuccessful. The email then turns to news of Apple buying the CarPool Karaoke video series. We discuss why the news isn't surprising and how it will fit into Apple's boarder TV play. We conclude with a discussion of Phil Schiller joining Illumina's board of directors. There are a couple of things that jump out at me related to this news that makes me think there is much more to it than meets the eye.
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Didi Acquires UberChina, The Anti-Uber Alliance Is Over, QNX Founder Joins Project Titan
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Didi Acquires UberChina
- The Anti-Uber Alliance Is Over
- QNX Founder Joins Project Titan
Today's email has a car theme. We kick off with major news from the ridesharing industry. Didi is acquiring UberChina. We go over the near-term and long-term implications of the deal and what it means for Apple. The email then shifts to why this deal spells the end of the anti-Uber alliance as the entire ridesharing industry has been turned upside down. We then discuss the recent Bloomberg article containing a few Project Titan scoops. After going over a brief history of QNX and Project Titan's existing connection with QNX/Blackberry, we discuss my perspective and thoughts on why Apple hired QNX founder Dan Dodge and what it means for Apple's broader goals with Project Titan.
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Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Details
Today's daily update is the second part of my Apple 3Q16 earnings review. Yesterday's update was focused on the major themes (available here). The email covers my perspective on the details from Apple's earnings release and conference call. Twenty-two topics are covered, including:
- Revenue guidance
- Margins
- R&D
- Apple's iPhone channel inventory reduction
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Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Major Themes
Today's daily update is focused on reviewing Apple's 3Q16 earnings. Along with a big picture overall of the quarter, the email covers five major themes from the report and conference call:
- Apple 3Q16: Sure Looks Like a Bottom
- It's All About Low Expectations
- iPhone SE Success
- Light at the End of the iPad Tunnel
- Narrative Issues Continue
- China Mystery
Tomorrow's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations on Apple's quarter.
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Bob Mansfield to Lead Project Titan, Project Titan Implications, Apple Talent Questions
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Bob Mansfield to Lead Project Titan
- Project Titan Implications
- Apple Talent Questions
Today's email is dedicated to discussing the WSJ's big scoop concerning Project Titan. Former Apple executive Bob Mansfield has come out retirement for the second time to lead Project Titan. The email begins with a closer look at Bob Mansfield, including his previous job roles and experiences at Apple. We then go over some of the major implications this move suggests when looking at Apple's electric car plans and the progress being made with Project Titan. We conclude with a look at how this news relates to the long-standing narrative that Apple is having trouble bringing in outside talent.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 5 - Thoughts on AAPL), Deep Dive into 2Q16 Smartwatch Market, Apple Selling Exclusive Watch Bands for Olympics
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 5 - Thoughts on AAPL)
- Deep Dive into 2Q16 Smartwatch Market
- Apple Selling Exclusive Watch Bands for Olympics
Today's email includes the fifth and final installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. The previous four parts of the 3Q16 earnings preview are:
We begin today's email by discussing a few big picture themes concerning AAPL shares ahead of Apple's earnings release tomorrow. The email then turns to the latest IDC shipment numbers for the smartwatch industry. We go over a few of my observations on the latest trends. We conclude with a discussion of Apple's Watch band strategy by looking at news of Apple selling limited edition Watch bands in Brazil for the Olympics.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - 4Q Guidance), Tesla's New Master Plan, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - 4Q Guidance)
- Tesla's New Master Plan
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with the fourth installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. Part 1 - Methodology was published in Monday's daily update, Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch was published in Tuesday's update, and Part 3 - iPhone was published in yesterday's update. In today's update, we discuss my perspective on Apple's upcoming 4Q guidance, including the contributing factors that will play a key role in analyzing management's guidance. The email then turns to Elon Musk's new master plan for Tesla. I take a deep dive through the plan, offering a number of observations on Musk's vision for Tesla. We conclude with Thursday Q&A in which I answer questions from Above Avalon members. This week's questions:
- What will happen if there aren't new Macs announced this fall?
- What do you make of the rumor that Apple will buy Formula 1?
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone), Swatch Issues Profit Warning, 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone)
- Swatch Issues Profit Warning
- 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
We begin today's email with the third installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. (Part 1 - Methodology was published in Monday's daily update, and Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch was published in yesterday's update). Along with going over my iPhone sales estimate, we discuss my broader views on the iPhone business heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to Swatch, the largest watchmaker in the world, issuing a profit warning on weak sales. We go over why so much attention is being given to Swatch and why some of the questionable actions being taken by the company suggest intense turmoil in the Swiss watch industry. The discussion then turns to new Microsoft Surface revenue data included in Microsoft's 2Q16 earnings release yesterday. We back into Surface shipment data and then compare it to my iPad and Mac 3Q estimates.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch), Netflix Has a Big Problem, SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch)
- Netflix Has a Big Problem
- SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
We kick off today's email with the second part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my revenue and unit sales estimates for Services, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. The email then turns to Netflix as the company reported earnings yesterday. Upon closer examination, I see the company facing a big problem in video streaming. There are also implications on how Apple may view video streaming. We conclude with my thoughts on SoftBank announcing its intention to buy ARM Holdings and what it may mean for Apple.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology), Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV, Line's IPO
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology)
- Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV
- Line's IPO
We begin today's email with the first part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my view on earnings previews and how my approach is different than Wall Street's. Today's update helps set the stage for the rest of this week's daily updates in which we cover my expectations headed into Apple's earnings release next Tuesday. The email then turns to Eddy Cue's interview with The Hollywood Reporter concerning TV. A few of his comments stood out to me. We conclude with a few brief observations on Line's IPO, including messaging platform valuation. We also discuss why the narrative that some of these messaging platforms are potential threats to Apple and iOS has been exaggerated.
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