Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity, Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating, Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity
  • Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating
  • Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships

We begin today's email with the debate around whether or not we have seen peak innovation in the smartphone industry. The discussion then turns to the latest Swiss watch market sales trends and how Apple Watch is using design to change the watch industry. We conclude with my thoughts on Waymo announcing a number of new corporate partnerships involving self-driving cars.  

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Doug Field Joins Project Titan, Samsung’s Product Event in NYC, Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Doug Field Joins Project Titan
  • Samsung’s Product Event in NYC
  • Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces

Today’s email begins with my thoughts on Doug Field returning to Apple. The discussion then turns to Samsung's product event in NYC, including the company's odd bet on circular smartwatch faces. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory, Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand, Apple Paid Subscription Trends

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory
  • Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand
  • Apple Paid Subscription Trends

Today’s email begins with a closer look at iPhone channel inventory. We discuss some changes that have taken place in Apple's strategy. The email then turns to estimating sell-through demand for iPhone (excludes the impact from channel inventory adjustments). The discussion concludes with a look at Apple's paid subscriber trends. We go over the quarterly change in the number of paid subscriptions and my estimate of how much revenue Apple is bringing in from paid subscriptions. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private, Tesla Funding and Apple, Disney Discusses Video Strategy 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private
  • Tesla Funding and Apple
  • Disney Discusses Video Strategy

Today’s email begins with the big Tesla news. The discussion then switches gears to talk about video streaming as Disney provided the clearest view yet of its video plans.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Fitbit Earnings, Garmin Earnings, Wrist Wearables Market Observations

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Fitbit Earnings
  • Garmin Earnings
  • Wrist Wearables Market Observations

Today’s email has a wearables theme as we discuss Fitbit and Garmin earnings, concluding with some of my observations regarding developments in the wrist wearables space.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes, Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes
  • Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap

Today's email kicks off with my notes from Apple's 3Q18 10-Q. We cover 14 topics. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Apple reaching a trillion-dollar market cap and why so many articles written about the subject were off base. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Details)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)

Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q18 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 25 different topics. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Part 1 - Major Themes)

Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 3Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The second half of my earnings review (available here) goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings release and conference call. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings review and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here

 
 
 
 
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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion, Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well, Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion
  • Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well
  • Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service

We begin today's email with my thoughts on the narrative that Apple's share buyback and dividends are making it increasingly difficult for Apple to reach a trillion dollar market cap. The discussion then turns to Samsung's earnings and the company blaming its weak performance on lackluster demand for its flagship smartphone. We conclude things with my thoughts on Walmart investigating its own subscription video streaming service.  

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad, Spotify 2Q18 Earnings, Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad
  • Spotify 2Q18 Earnings
  • Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "The iPad vs. Mac Juxtaposition." In particular, we discuss how Apple's growing confidence in its iPad business is impacting the way it approaches the Mac. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Spotify's 2Q18 earnings. We conclude with a closer look at prospects of Apple moving away from Qualcomm modems in this year's flagship iPhones. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance), Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance)
  • Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop

Today's email concludes my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We look at the more important financial line items in my model, including my share buyback and 4Q18 guidance projections. We also go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first three parts of my 3Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage), here (iPhone estimates), and here (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates).

We also discuss my thoughts on Facebook's big drop on Wall Street in response to the company's earnings. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here

 
 
 
 
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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)

Today's email continues my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first two parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone estimates). 

Tomorrow's email will conclude my earnings preview with a big picture view heading into next week's earnings as well as my revenue, EPS, capital return, and 4Q18 guidance estimates.

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here

 
 
 
 
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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (iPhone Estimates)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone Estimates)

Today's email continues my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. (The first part of the preview is available here.) We discuss my iPhone unit sales, average selling price (ASP), and a few stress test scenarios. In addition, we go over the methodology and data behind my iPhone estimates. Tomorrow's email will go over my iPad, Mac, Services, and Apple Watch estimates.

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here

 
 
 
 
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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage), Apple's OLED Diversification Efforts Grow, Mapping Video Talent in Hollywood

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
  • Apple's OLED Diversification Efforts Grow
  • Mapping Video Talent in Hollywood

Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings. The email then turns to BOE Technology Group Company trying to become an iPhone OLED display supplier. We look at Apple's expanding efforts to diversify its OLED supply. We conclude with Shonda Rhimes beginning to talk about her Netflix deal and what Rhimes' decision tells us about how the best talent view the various players entering the video streaming wars. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

How Apple Is Changing, 2Q18 Microsoft Surface Sales, Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • How Apple Is Changing
  • 2Q18 Microsoft Surface Sales
  • Q&A

We begin today's email with my thoughts on a recent article by Jason Snell for Macworld regarding four ways Apple has thrown out its old playbook. The email then turns to Microsoft earnings, and we look at Microsoft Surface sales. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • What do I think about a camera for Apple Watch? Do I see this as a priority for Apple?
  • When will macOS be able to run on A series chips? Would Apple move completely over to its own chips for Mac?
  • What happens to iPhone demand if Apple lowers entry-level iPhone pricing to $299 or lower (from the current $349)? 
  • Why were Richard Howarth and Alan Dye removed from Apple’s leadership page?
  • Do I think there is something more to Apple and satellites given my Apple Maps discussion?
  • How do I determine which stories to discuss in these daily emails?

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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