Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity, NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance, Honda Invests in GM Cruise

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity

  • NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance

  • Honda Invests in GM Cruise

We kick off today’s email by discussing the difference between Apple’s iPad and Mac strategy versus Microsoft’s Surface strategy. The email then turns to Apple Watch criticism. We conclude with news from the auto industry as two rivals join forces to work on autonomous cars.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News, Microsoft’s Surface Event, Microsoft's Surface All Access

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News

  • Microsoft’s Surface Event

  • Microsoft's Surface All Access

We kick off today’s email by going over Tim Cook’s interview with VICE. The discussion then turns to Microsoft’s Surface event in NYC and we go over my thoughts on Microsoft’s Surface strategy, Surface Headphones, and Surface All Access.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Estimating Apple’s Google TAC Revenue, Smart Speaker Usage Trends, Apple's New iPhone XS Ad

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Estimating Apple’s Google TAC Revenue

  • Smart Speaker Usage Trends

  • Apple's New iPhone XS Ad

We begin today’s email with Google’s traffic acquisition cost (TAC) payments to Apple. The discussion includes a closer look at the very aggressive Google TAC revenue estimate published last week by Goldman Sachs. The email then turns to smart speakers and we go over the latest usage trends from Nielsen. We conclude with a quick look at Apple’s new iPhone ad.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Adds Second Apple Watch Series 4 Manufacturer, Elon Musk Settles with the SEC, How to Tame Elon Musk

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Adds Second Apple Watch Series 4 Manufacturer

  • Elon Musk Settles with the SEC

  • How to Tame Elon Musk

We kick off today’s email with a discussion regarding Apple Watch sales. The email then shifts to Elon Musk, the SEC, and the idea that Elon Musk can be tamed.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

The Good and Bad News with Apple News, Apple News as a Paid Subscription, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • The Good and Bad News with Apple News

  • Apple News as a Paid Subscription

  • Thursday Q&A

We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on the good and bad news with Apple News. We go over Slate’s big cover story regarding Apple News. The discussion then turns to how Apple can embrace paid subscriptions with Apple News. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Do I expect Apple to unveil AirPods 2.0 in October?

  • Why is Apple sharing production details associated with its marketing materials?

  • Why do you think Apple Watch partnerships haven’t extended beyond Nike and Hermès?

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional, iPhone BOM Funny Math, 1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional

  • iPhone BOM Funny Math

  • 1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends

We kick off today’s email by going over my thoughts on Apple launching the iPhone XR a few weeks after the iPhone XS and XS Max release. The discussion then turns to iPhone gross margins and the reasons why bill of materials (BOM) analysis for iPhone is not a credible way to derive margin estimates. The email concludes with the latest music sales trends from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). We go over three points from the data that stood out to me.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Amazon's Hardware Event, SiriusXM Buys Pandora, Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Amazon's Hardware Event

  • SiriusXM Buys Pandora

  • Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition

We kick off today’s email by going over Amazon’s hardware event. The discussion then turns to SiriusXM buying Pandora. We go over SiriusXM’s motivation for the deal. The email concludes with a few thoughts on Apple’s Shazam acquisition.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions, Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions, WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions

  • Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions

  • WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video

Today's email is going to be product focused as we discuss some of my initial impressions of the iPhone XS Max and Apple Watch Series 4. The email concludes with my thoughts on the WSJ’s concerns regarding the strict content policies Apple is relying on to create its video streaming service.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued), Apple Watch and Redefining Watches, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued)

  • Apple Watch and Redefining Watches 

  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Connecting the Apple Dots." In particular, we discuss the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products and my installed base projections. We then discuss Apple Watch Series 4 and my theory that one’s existing view of watches plays a major role in how the Apple Watch is perceived. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Who is buying the iPhone XS at $999 when you can buy an iPhone XR for $250 less?

  • Why is the iPhone XR larger than the iPhone XS in terms of screen size?

  • Do I think Apple is targeting the XR for the most sales, with extra profit margin in the XS and XS Max?

  • What are my predictions for marquee features / design updates for next year’s Apple Watch and iPhone?

  • Was there anything announced at Apple’s product event that made you want to change your Apple sales estimates?

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Odd iPhone XS Reviews, iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews, iPhone Upgraders

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Odd iPhone XS Reviews

  • iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews

  • iPhone Upgraders

We kick things off by going over my thoughts on iPhone XS reviews. The discussion then turns to the iPhone camera’s oversized impact on the review environment. The email concludes by revisiting my financial estimates regarding iPhone upgrading.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post, Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List, Sonos Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post

  • Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List

  • Sonos Earnings

We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Jony’s interview with The Washington Post’s Christina Passariello. The discussion then turns to a number of Apple products being removed from the U.S. tariffs list. We conclude with a look at Sonos earnings.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Event Review: Full Notes

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple event review. We go over my full notes from attending Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater. We cover 38 different topics.

This past Thursday’s email was focused on the major themes and takeaways from the event (available here).

My full Apple product event review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Event Review: Major Themes and Takeaways

Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over the major themes and takeaways from Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater.

Major themes and takeaways:

  • Presentation Observations 

  • An Apple Watch Inflection Point

  • iPhone Xr Intrigue

  • Improved iPhone Value Proposition 

  • Thoughts on iPhone Sales Mix

The second half of my review (full notes) is available here.

My full Apple product event review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple’s M&A Philosophy, A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?, The Large iPhone Screen Narrative

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s M&A Philosophy

  • A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?

  • The Large iPhone Screen Narrative

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Poaching Tesla." In particular, we discuss Apple’s M&A philosophy. The discussion then turns to what I think is a controlled leak from Apple regarding the new iPhones and the broader narrative regarding Apple’s embrace of large screen smartphones.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs, Apple's Tariffs Risk, Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs
  • Apple's Tariffs Risk
  • Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings

Today's email is dedicated to discussing the U.S. proposal to impose a 25% duty on a number of Apple products imported from China. The email includes my estimates for the financial impact tariffs may have on Apple. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.


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