Disney and Comcast Reach Hulu Deal, The Next Chapter of Paid Video Streaming, Keep an Eye on Hulu
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Disney and Comcast Reach Hulu Deal
The Next Chapter of Paid Video Streaming
Keep an Eye on Hulu
We kick off today’s email with Disney and Comcast reaching a deal regarding Hulu’s future. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on the next chapter of paid video streaming. We conclude with why I think Hulu needs to be watched carefully as the video streaming service is providing us a different perspective on the paid video streaming market.
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The Supreme Court Decision: Apple v. Pepper
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision regarding Apple v. Pepper.
We begin with some basic background and then cover implications arising from the decision. The update concludes with a few stress tests regarding the financial impact to Apple arising from doomsday scenarios involving the App Store.
The 2,800-word email includes the following sections:
Background
The Supreme Court’s Decision
The Details
The Original Lawsuit
Apple’s Response
Questions
Financial Stress Tests
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The AR Disillusionment Phase Continues, Google Pixel 3a Still Faces Problems, A Smartphone Camera Trough
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
The AR Disillusionment Phase Continues
Google Pixel 3a Still Faces Problems
A Smartphone Camera Trough
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on why the AR announcements and demos shown at this year’s Facebook F8, Google I/O, and Microsoft Build were underwhelming. The discussion then turns to why Google’s new $399 Pixel 3a smartphone still faces problems going up against iPhone. We conclude with smartphone cameras and why I think we are nearing some kind of major inflection point regarding AR and cameras.
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Facebook F8, Microsoft Build, Google I/O, Overall Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Facebook F8
Microsoft Build
Google I/O
Overall Takeaways
Today’s update will be focused on recent developer conferences from Facebook (Facebook F8), Google (Google I/O), and Microsoft (Microsoft Build). We go over my notes and takeaways from the the three keynotes. We approach the keynotes from the perspective of Apple, focusing on themes that will likely play a major role in Apple’s upcoming developer conference next month.
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Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
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Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
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Estimating iPhone, iPad, and Mac Installed Bases, Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Estimating iPhone, iPad, and Mac Installed Bases
Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use
Thursday Q&A
We begin today’s email with my iPhone, iPad, and Mac installed base estimates as of the end of 2Q19 (March 30th, 2019). The discussion then looks at the total number of Apple devices in use broken out by product category. We also go over a few takeaways from the data including my estimate for the number of people using at least one Apple product. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do you think Apple will try a new design for the cancelled AirPower wireless charging pad?
What do you think of the relationship between Nintendo and Apple? What sets Apple apart from other design-led companies such as Nintendo?
What are your thoughts on Tesla’s marketing (or lack thereof)?
How do you see Marzipan playing out? How will it impact the iOS and Mac ecosystems?
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Estimating AirPods Sales and Installed Base, Estimating HomePod and Apple TV Sales, Measuring Apple’s Accessories Business
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Estimating AirPods Sales and Installed Base
Estimating HomePod and Apple TV Sales
Measuring Apple’s Accessories Business
We kick off today’s email with my AirPods unit sales, revenue, and installed base estimates. The discussion then turns to my HomePod and Apple TV unit sales and revenue estimates. We also go over the methodology used to derive these estimates. The email concludes with a look at Apple’s accessories business from an annual revenue perspective.
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Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue, Dissecting Apple Watch Sales Growth, 2Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue
Dissecting Apple Watch Sales Growth
2Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
Today’s email has an Apple Watch theme. We kick things off with my latest Apple Watch unit sales and revenue estimates. The discussion then turns to why Apple Watch unit sales growth continues to weaken. A number of recent developments and unique situations are impacting Apple Watch unit sales growth. The email concludes with my estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base as of March 30th, 2019. We go over my new methodology for tracking the total number of people wearing an Apple Watch.
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Notes from Apple’s 2Q19 10-Q, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Notes from Apple’s 2Q19 10-Q
Updated Apple Earnings Model
Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
We kick off today’s email with my key takeaways from Apple's 10-Q filing for 2Q19. We cover 10 financial topics. The discussion then turns to my revised Apple earnings model following the company’s 2Q19 results. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model at no additional cost. The email concludes with AAPL valuation and the factors that I think are responsible for Apple’s improved valuation metrics.
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Apple 2Q19 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 2Q19 earnings review. We discuss my full notes and focus on the granular takeaways from Apple’s earnings report and conference call.
The 2,900-word email covers 20 different topics.
(The first half of my earnings review focused on the major themes is available here.)
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Apple 2Q19 Earnings Review (Major Themes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 2Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The 2,300-word email includes the following sections:
Overall Takeaway
2Q19: By the Numbers
iPhone Revenue Decline Has Bottomed
It’s All About Wearables
What Happened to the Dividend Increase?
A Few Yellow Flags Appear
Record Share Buyback
(The second half of my earnings review focused on my full notes and the granular takeaways is available here.)
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Apple's M&A Appetite, Two Problems Facing Google Pixel, Spotify Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple's M&A Appetite
Two Problems Facing Google Pixel
Spotify Earnings
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on whether or not Apple’s appetite for large-scale M&A has changed in recent months. The discussion then turns to Alphabet earnings and management saying Google Pixel smartphones sales are down. We go over the two primary problems Google is facing when it comes to the Pixel smartphone. The email concludes with Spotify earnings and a look at the latest subscriber trends and management’s strategy for improved user monetization.
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Three Industrial Designers Leave Apple, Jony Ive's Legacy, Apple Discussed M&A with Intel
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Three Industrial Designers Leave Apple
Jony Ive's Legacy
Apple Discussed M&A with Intel
We begin today’s update with news of three additional industrial designers leaving Apple. I share my perspective and thoughts on the departures. The discussion includes how managing the turnover that is unfolding within Apple Industrial Design will play a role in Jony Ive’s legacy. The email concludes with Apple and Intel. The WSJ is reporting that Apple previously held discussions with Intel about acquiring its smartphone modem business. We go over my thoughts on the story and why a deal regarding Apple acquiring Intel’s smartphone modem IP would now be considered a surprise.
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Apple 2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 3Q19 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts), Apple's Incentive to Boost Buyback Authorization, Microsoft Surface Sales
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 3Q19 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Apple's Incentive to Boost Buyback Authorization
Microsoft Surface Sales
Today's email concludes my Apple 2Q19 earnings preview. We look at my 3Q19 revenue guidance projection and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.) We then go over my final thoughts heading into earnings next week.
The first two parts of my 2Q19 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone, Services, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories, and iPad financial estimates).
The email then goes over additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Apple’s $400 Billion Buyback Program.” In particular, we focus on why Apple’s board still has an incentive to continue increasing buyback authorization by significant amounts. We conclude with my thoughts on the latest Microsoft Surface sales.
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Apple 2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Product Sales Expectations)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Product Sales Expectations)
Today's email continues my Apple 2Q19 earnings preview. We discuss my iPhone, Services, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories, and iPad financial estimates. We also go over the methodology behind my estimates.
(The first part of the preview is available here - setting the stage. The final section of the preview is available here - 3Q19 guidance, updated earnings model, final thoughts.)
My full Apple 2Q19 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple FY2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage), 1Q19 iPhone Sales Share, Netflix 1Q19 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple FY2Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
1Q19 iPhone Sales Share
Netflix 1Q19 Earnings
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 2Q19 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings.
The email then turns to the latest Kantar data regarding iPhone sales share around the world between January and March. We go over the numbers and corresponding takeaways. Our discussion concludes with my thoughts on Netflix’s 1Q19 earnings. After going over some of the financials, we cover the items from management’s letter to shareholders and earnings Q&A that jumped out at me.
(The second part of my 2Q19 earnings preview is available here - product sales expectations. The final part is available here - 3Q19 guidance, updated earnings model. and final thoughts.)
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