Hello everyone. This update (for Monday) is being published late Sunday to give everyone time to digest things prior to Apple reporting earnings late Monday afternoon.
My updated Apple earnings model has been uploaded to the Digital Package Tab within the Above Avalon payer portal for members with the Financial Modeling add-on attached to their membership.
Previewing Apple’s 4Q26 Earnings: Jitteriness Is in the Air
Given ongoing supply issues and year-over-year iPhone launch timing differences, Apple’s 4Q26 earnings are set within an extra noisy environment.
The biggest question facing the iPhone relates to Apple’s ability to get its hands on supply with high-end chips being the limiting factor.
For the Mac, the SKUs best positioned for AI mania continue to face shortages.
The Services business is facing a few new growth headwinds that need monitoring.
FX has returned to once again be a cloud hanging over Apple’s results.
Tariff rebates will provide a small boost to Apple’s reported results. The boost should be excluded from results for analysis purposes though.
Apple’s portfolio-wide price hikes represent another complicating factor for earnings. Product ASPs are going to
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