Apple reports FY3Q23 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will say about guidance (FY4Q23).

Hello everyone. Welcome to August.

We will continue our Apple 3Q23 earnings preview with a look at my granular estimates. The update will conclude with a few thoughts on what Apple may say regarding 4Q23 guidance. My updated earnings model will be available in tomorrow’s update.

My 3Q23 Apple Estimates

Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q23:

Revenue: $82.0B (consensus: $81.6B)
Overall gross margin: 44.4% (guidance: 43.5% to 44.5%)
Gross margin (HW): 35.7%

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