The State of the Mac (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of Apple’s oldest product category.
Written by Neil Cybart - November 21st, 2023
Three years into the Mac’s Apple Silicon transition, the product category has never been stronger. It’s a stark difference from where the Mac was a decade ago. And yet, Mac sales are back to the same level as they were pre-Apple Silicon. This report reflects on where the Mac has come from and where it is going as Apple heads into spatial computing.
The Mac’s Past
The 2010s represented a complicated decade for the Mac. While Apple never lost its optimistic and upbeat tone with the Mac, the product category experienced a few highs but also the lowest of lows.
The best way of describing Apple’s old approach with the Mac (pre-2017) was aggressiveness in getting users to shift to mobile devices. (For this Report, we won’t go over Mac strategy pre-iPhone).
Apple was seeing unprecedented demand for iPhone and iPad with strong installed base growth. Even though Apple was continuing to add new users to the Mac installed base, the rates were not at the same level as what was unfolding with its mobile siblings.
In the early and mid 2010s, a going theory on display with Apple’s product development strategy was that many Mac users would eventually migrate to iPad (and iPhone). These Mac users were not developers and had no need for pro Mac software. Instead, they were sticking with the Mac for other reasons, including familiarity. Based on subsequent Apple disclosure, parts of that theory proved correct. In early 2017, Apple said 70% to 85% of Mac users weren’t relying on professional Mac software. This group was thought to be a prime target market for the iPad.
The implications of this Mac mindset went far. As workflows migrated from the Mac to iPad, the Mac line would be winnowed down to essentially three models: the MacBook, iMac, and Mac Pro. At least, that was the theory. Although this goal wasn’t directly telegraphed in ad campaigns or commercials, Apple’s actions with the Mac spoke volumes. The Mac mini went years without an update. The now infamous butterfly keyboard debacle was ultimately Apple trying to make MacBooks as thin as possible (keys stability was positioned as another selling point). Other new ideas included the Touch Bar and the 12-inch MacBook form factor. The takeaway wasn’t that Apple gave up with the Mac or was losing interest (far from it). Some of the Mac features were clearly inspired by the success seen with Apple's mobile devices. Instead, Apple appeared to be struggling with understanding what users, especially those with pro workflows, were looking for in a Mac.
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