More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.


We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.

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The Ultra Strategy: An Examination of Apple’s Adventurous Watch (Above Avalon Report)

An examination of the Apple Watch Ultra.

Written by Neil Cybart - December 21st, 2023

In 2022, Apple unveiled an all-new Apple Watch model designed for the adventurous. While previous Apple Watches were able to be used in extreme conditions, this model would be marketed as taking things to another level. A year after its unveiling, Apple Watch Ultra remains the most intriguing Apple Watch model as momentum flows to more capable devices worn on the wrist.


Table of Contents

  • Apple Watch History

  • Watch Line Expansion

  • The Ultra Unveiling

  • Bad (Initial) Reviews

  • The Strategy

  • Differentiation Details

  • Sales Implications

  • Future

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this report. Members can read the full report here. (Members: Reports are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

The Case for More Durable Apple Watch Ultra Bands, Disney Planning Standalone ESPN Offering

Hello everyone. The daily updates return with a post-Memorial Day update focused on some of Neil's thoughts about Apple Watch bands. We then turn to news on the Disney streaming front.

The Case for More Durable Apple Watch Ultra Bands

Apple is no stranger to selling higher-priced Apple Watch bands. Over the years, Apple has sold more than 620 bands, ranging from the entry-level $49 Sport Band and Solo Loop to the $99 Milanese Loop and $339+ Link Bracelet.

Throughout Apple Watch’s history, higher-priced Apple Watch brands have been associated with luxury and fashion, not additional utility. For the Apple Watch launch in 2015, Apple sold exclusive Link Bracelets for Apple Watch Edition. The Hermès partnership, now in its eighth year and centered around the company’s leather expertise, includes high-priced bands with the top one currently going for $849.

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Disney CEO Talks ESPN’s Future, Apple’s Sports Play, Apple Watch Ultra Reviews (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Let's begin today's update in the live sports world.

Disney CEO Talks ESPN’s Future

Last week, Disney CEO Bob Chapek, who recently had his CEO contact extended by three years, sat down with CNBC’s David Faber to talk about ESPN and where live sports goes from here.

Here’s Chapek:

“We're hard at work in our offices, both on the east coast and the west coast, figuring out how we make it more friction-free sports environment for our viewers. And obviously, some of these things take the cooperation of a lot of the people in the ecosystem, whether they be the leagues, other broadcast partners, but we foresee a world where ESPN, even more than ever, is the pinnacle of all your broadcast needs and we’re excited to continue working on that and at some point, when we’re all fully backed, we’ll come back.”

Chapek referred to four broad working areas as to where Disney is focusing ESPN's energy:

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Deconstructing Apple’s “Far Out” Presentation (Part 2) - Daily Update

Hello everyone.

In today’s update, we will wrap up my Apple event review. As a recap, last Thursday we went over my initial impressions regarding event highlights. Yesterday, we talked about the Apple Watch in greater detail. We will now go over AirPods Pro, Fitness+, and iPhone.

Before we jump into today’s update, there is one additional observation from attending the Apple event that was worth sharing.

I couldn’t help but notice how Phil Schiller was walking around the product demo area for what seemed like an extended period.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

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Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Deconstructing Apple’s “Far Out” Presentation (Part 1) - Daily Update

Hello everyone.

Welcome to a new week.

We will continue my Apple event review. Last Thursday, we went over the event highlights that jumped out at me. Our attention will now shift to more granular topics.

In today’s update, we will focus primarily on Apple Watch. In tomorrow’s update, we will talk about iPhone, AirPods, and any other remaining topics that deserve to be talked about. Instead of just going through the laundry list of announcements, we will focus will on the why behind Apple's announcements.

Prioritization

Over on Apple's Events page, the company listed the following products/features unveiled at last week’s “Far Out” event:

  • iPhone 14 Pro (Dynamic Island / safety features / upgraded camera)

  • iPhone 14 (new Plus size model and better battery life / safety features / low-light photography)

  • AirPods Pro (ANC and adaptive transparency / personalized spatial audio / better battery life)

  • Apple Watch Ultra (rugged / capable)

  • Apple Watch Series 8 (“future of health” = advanced cycle tracking / Crash Detection / Workout app enhancements)

  • Apple Watch SE ("more capability and an even lower price")

  • Apple Fitness+ (will be available to all iPhone users)

For iPhone, cameras and processors were not positioned as the most important new features for this year’s flagships. Instead, additional screen real estate with the new Plus model and changes to Pro screens with Dynamic Island were the two big new features. Apple positioned

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(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Apple Event Highlights (Daily Update)

Hello everyone.

The plan is to go over some of the major highlights / takeaways from Apple’s “Far Out” event. We will focus on the details on Monday.

Let’s jump right in.

Attending the Event

This was the first full-blown in-person product unveiling that Apple has held in three years. WWDC was in some ways a trial run.

There were some changes from prior events.

  • Security was noticeably tighter with metal detectors in use for the first time (at least that I recall).

  • All visitors needed to submit a negative COVID test.

  • The presentation shown in Steve Jobs Theater was taped instead of taking live on stage.

The more interesting takeaway for me was how natural it felt to watch a taped presentation in Steve Jobs Theater. It felt just like any other prior event. Much of that was due to Apple’s taped presentations being superior to traditional onstage keynotes. Apple is able to do so much more from a production standpoint with taped presentations. Tim Cook went on stage at the beginning with a few words about how these events are ultimately about people coming together. There is much truth with that statement. Going forward, the taped presentation shown at Steve Jobs Theater format works. In many ways, it’s like a movie premiere.

About the Rumors

The Apple rumor beat has changed. Apple has seen success in going after leaks and security holes. Whatever remains doesn’t have the same kind of cohesiveness and punch as before.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.