More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.


We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.

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U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban, Apple’s Response, Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch

The most recent Above Avalon Report, which went out to everyone via email on December 22nd and via podcast to members with the podcast add-on, was about Apple Watch Ultra / Ultra 2. In tomorrow's update, we will talk about a few things that didn't make it into the report. For today, we will look at the latest regarding the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 U.S. ban. The discussion includes a closer look at Apple’s response and why Neil isn’t concerned about Apple Watch.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

The Ultra Strategy: An Examination of Apple’s Adventurous Watch (Above Avalon Report)

An examination of the Apple Watch Ultra.

Written by Neil Cybart - December 21st, 2023

In 2022, Apple unveiled an all-new Apple Watch model designed for the adventurous. While previous Apple Watches were able to be used in extreme conditions, this model would be marketed as taking things to another level. A year after its unveiling, Apple Watch Ultra remains the most intriguing Apple Watch model as momentum flows to more capable devices worn on the wrist.


Table of Contents

  • Apple Watch History

  • Watch Line Expansion

  • The Ultra Unveiling

  • Bad (Initial) Reviews

  • The Strategy

  • Differentiation Details

  • Sales Implications

  • Future

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this report. Members can read the full report here. (Members: Reports are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

Thoughts on Apple Product Pricing, My iPhone and Apple Watch Sales Mix Estimates, U.S. Carriers Improve iPhone Promotions

In today’s update, we go over a few topics related to the new Apple Watches and iPhones. The discussion begins with Neil’s thoughts on new Apple Watch and iPhone pricing. We then turn to Neil’s estimates for unit sales mix by Apple Watch and iPhone model. The update concludes with U.S. carriers improving their iPhone promotions.

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Let’s jump right in.

Thoughts on Apple Product Pricing

At last week's product event, no major changes to Apple’s product pricing strategy were announced. There were more than a few rumors suggesting iPhone Pro pricing was going up against the board. That did not occur. Generally, Apple pricing rumors should be discounted as Apple is able to keep pricing information under wraps.

Here is entry-level pricing for each Apple Watch collection:

  • Apple Watch Series SE: $249 (GPS) – did not receive any updates last week

  • Apple Watch Series 9: $399 (GPS)

  • Apple Watch Ultra 2: $799 (GPS + Cellular)

We will talk more about my sales mix expectations by Apple Watch model shortly. For now, it is important to point out how Apple is sticking with

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Above Avalon Membership

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Deconstructing Apple’s Product Event (Apple Watch), About That Apple “Mother Nature” Video

Hello everyone. We will continue our discussion of Apple’s event with a focus on everything Apple Watch. The discussion then turns to Neil’s thoughts on what has become quite the controversial ad for Apple’s sustainability efforts.

As a reminder, there will be a special Friday edition of the daily update.

This past Tuesday, there was another successful virtual member meet-up. You can check out the discussion in the Above Avalon team in Slack (available here). If you want to add to the discussions, please do so. That is one of the key benefits found with a (written) member meet-up.

Deconstructing Apple’s Product Event (Apple Watch)

Overall / Marketing

The Apple Watch portion of Apple's presentation came across as strong. In what has become something of a trademark of Apple Watch updates, quality trumps quantity in terms of new features. The new features looked useful and add value to Apple Watch out of the gate.

The Apple Watch is still a “new user” business with a majority of sales going to people new to the product. Apple’s target market for Apple Watch Series 9 isn’t Series 8 or even Series 7 owners but rather iPhone users who don’t wear an Apple Watch. In terms of Watch marketing,

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.